Sent Sunday, October 24, 2004 to
European Union’s Future Action on Climate Change Web Forum
Timo Hämeranta, LL.M., Finland, EU
Disclaimer: I am private citizen and represent only myself, not any organisation or interest group and I do not promote or lobby anyone’s interests or receive funding from anybody. My only interest and ambition is the Search for Scientific Truth. In scientific issues I am a middleman of knowledge, in practical and political ones a stakeholder.
I’d like to direct your attention to the following points
- The scientific basis of the alleged enhanced greenhouse gas effect caused by human-induced CO2 emissions has outdated according to the most recent scientific studies
- New recommendations to policymakers needed based on valid scientific understanding
Most unambiguously I do advice you to take this Submission to the Agenda of the stakeholder Conference to be held in November 2004, and to forward this to the scientific advisers of EU policymakers and advice them to closely study and examine the almost 400 scientific peer-reviewed papers, other scientific papers, overviews, presentations and books listed below.
The scientific basis to tackle the climate change allegedly caused by human-induced CO2 emissions has collapsed.
The newest scientific findings prove that current or near-future (i.e. in the next 100 yrs) CO2 emissions cause no dangerous anthropogenic interference with or dangerous perturbation in the climate system. The EU decisions in force and in preparation to tackle climate change are scientifically outdated and obsolete. The only scientifically justified resolution is to let the Kyoto Protocol expire in 2012. Instead, in EU it is advisable e.g. to prepare to both near-future warming and near-future cooling, to create proper early warning systems of climate disasters, to diminish the dependence of imported energy sources, e.g. from Russia and Middle-East, and finally one of the main messages is: “Clean, healthy, unpolluted air to everyone is one of the Basic Human Rights”.
B. Current Scientific Understanding
UNFCCC’s objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
So far, nobody has been able to scientifically define what that level should be. Scientific constraints have been focused on how human-induced CO2 emissions influence on and make perturbations in the climate system. In this respect, huge advances have been made in recent years.
Referring to the almost 400 references below the newest scientific findings and conclusions are as follows:
1. In the past, global temperature has fluctuated, warmed and cooled, irrespectively to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Temperature has even cooled, although CO2 has increased. The same has happened in recent decades, and most probably will happen in future, too.
Conclusion: CO2 is not the main driver in climate variations.
2. The infamous ‘Hockey Stick’ adopted by the IPCC TAR 2001 is flawed. Temperature did not cool steadily the almost 1000 years before modern Industrial Age. Instead, during the Middle Ages temperature was as warm or even warmer as it is today, and during the Little Ice Age it was substantially cooler than presented in TAR. The case has been the same during the whole current post-glacial age.
Conclusion: The current warm phase is in no way ‘unprecedented’ in climate history.
3. The enhanced AGHG effect should manifest itself first and most prominently (x 2-3) in Polar Regions. No such amplification has been observed. Instead, during last decades e.g. Greenland and Antarctica have cooled.
Conclusion: There is no Polar amplification.
4. The enhanced AGHG effect is based on the assumption that troposphere should warm first and more than surface. This assumption is now obsolete.
Conclusion: There is no dangerous or even remarkable enhanced AGHG effect.
5. Prevailing understanding of climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling (e.g. +1,4 C – + 5,8 C in IPCC TAR 2001) is flawed. The actual sensitivity is 0,3 C.
Conclusion: The influence of increasing CO2 on global warming is almost indiscernible.
6. Prevailing estimation of the CO2 residence time in the atmosphere is 5-200 years (IPCC TAR 2001). The actual residence time is 5-40 years.
Conclusion: The short residence time still diminishes CO2’s influence on climate.
7. Prevailing understanding of the influence of the so-called feedbacks argues that their net effect is positive i.e. strongly amplifying the effect of increasing CO2. In fact, the net feedback effect of all the climate forces and interactions is negative.
Conclusion: The feedback mechanisms diminish even more the miniscule warming influence of increasing CO2.
8. Natural climate variations are still unpredictable, not very well known and poorly understood, and impossible to parameterize to models. For example, just for the moment we may be heading for a long natural warm era or for the next little ice age. Nobody knows for sure.
Conclusion: To prepare only for global warming is scientifically unjustified.
9. Current General Circulation Models are useful tools when climatologists study different climatic phenomena, but no all-inclusive model is available in foreseeable future. GCMs are unable to predict anything about future climate.
Conclusion: All the modelled projections, scenarios and ‘storylines’ presented have no predictive capability. Nobody knows how climate changes in the near or far future.
10. Climate is a non-linear, chaotic and turbulent system influenced by external and internal forces all of which and their interactions are either unknown or not yet known with precision needed. Climatologists have not been able to formulate any all-inclusive Theory of Climate.
Conclusion: More research is needed before any predictions, conclusions or recommendations about the climate system and for human actions are in any way scientifically plausible and justified.
Scientific Summary: The current prevailing scientific basis of the EU decisions in force and in preparation is obsolete and outdated.
C. Recommendations to Policymakers
In current circumstances, when future is unknown and we have no predictive ability, policymakers should prepare to both warming and cooling alternatives.
But, what slight or strong warming or cooling in fact and exactly (how, when, where) causes in Europe is not at all clear. For the moment, no reliable probability analysis exists.
More research, better preparedness to changes and early warning systems are urgently needed.
When scientists have concentrated in human CO2 emissions, the newest findings have clarified the situation:
- Current or near-future (i.e. in the next 100 yrs) CO2 emissions cause no dangerous anthropogenic interference with or perturbation in the climate system.
- Policymakers have no scientific reason to try to limit CO2 emissions anymore.
- Policymakers ought to let the Kyoto Protocol expire in 2012.
Instead, new Recommendations to EU Policymakers for Climate Strategies are e.g. as follows:
1. It is advisable to concentrate in scientific studies which improve the early warning systems of climate disasters, e.g. heavy storms, floods, heat waves, blizzards, black ice etc.
2. It is advisable to concentrate in limiting real air pollutants. (CO2 is not a pollutant, but the very important fertilizer.)
3. It is advisable to improve the energy efficiency and refinement filters of bio and fossil fuel burning.
4. It is advisable to enlarge the use of nuclear power.
5. It is advisable to develop new clean energy sources.
6. It is advisable to diminish the dependence of imported energy sources, e.g. from Russia and Middle-East.
7. In poor, undeveloped and developing countries it is advisable in EU development aid programs to concentrate in raising the standard of living e.g. by burning cheap coal with effective refinement filters, instead of by burning wood and forests.
Climate Policy Summary:
Climate within EU fluctuates unpredictably and it is reasonable to prepare to both near-future warming and near-future cooling.
Priority no 2 is the proper early warning systems of climate disasters.
Priority no 1 is to diminish the real air pollutants from or outside EU. The main message is:
“Clean, healthy, unpolluted air to everyone is one of the Basic Human Rights”.
(in alphabetical order)
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