date: Mon Oct 20 15:21:03 2008 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: MAGICC sea level rise for QUEST-GSI to: "Nigel Arnell" Hi Nigel, At 15:06 20/10/2008, you wrote: Tim, A while ago you sent me the MAGICC_AR4 spreadsheets containing global mean temperature for each of the AR4 GCMs, for a given emissions scenario (e.g. GMT_MAGICC_AR4-defDQ2x_A1B-AIM_CC-default.xls). Just to be certain that you're clear on this (I expect you are), the spreadsheet gives the MAGICC attempt at emulating the AR4 GCMs for global mean temperature, not the actual GCM global mean temperatures (which aren't available for many GCM/scenario combinations, hence using MAGICC). Do you have the same for sea level rise? Robert Nicholls needs these to rescale the sea level patterns he is obtaining from Jason Lowe. Results for the ocean thermal expansion part of sea level rise from MAGICC are attached. Two files: (1) multi-model-mean results for all SRES scenarios. (2) individual model results for A1B scenario. I can probably find the individual model results for A2, B1, and B2 too if necessary. Note, however, that I don't think they explicitly tuned to match sea level rise, therefore the fits between MAGICC and the actual GCM results may be poor. I'll ask Sarah about this and see if she has any recommendations. But despite some poorer matches, if this is all we have, then this is what we may have to use! Also, there is the ice-melt component of SLR to consider. Presumably the patterns from Jason Lowe represent only the thermal expansion / ocean circulation component, therefore the scaling should be done according to the expansion component of SLR that I've just attached. However, some additional, presumably globally uniform, SLR from ice melt should be added on top? Should I also ask Sarah if MAGICC simulates this, or have you already decided what to do about that? Best wishes Tim