date: Mon, 19 Nov 2007 17:23:23 +0000 from: Clare Goodess subject: Fwd: RE: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects to: p.jones@uea.ac.uk Phil I've just tried to check how much of Colin's salary 17k would cover. But I can't do this - as the DEFRA project accounts are one of several that I can't access - I complained again about this before going to Prague but have heard nothing. I'm not sure if you are able to check this yourself on PMA - you may have the same problem as me. Otherwise, we'll have to ask Janice I suppose. Once we've decided how many months and when, we/I need to contact Virginia Brown. We also need to confirm methodology with Jim - and give him indication of timescale for 'delivery', Clare >X-Newcastle-MailScanner-Watermark: 1195221138.04939@YtFfSGrIC9FW8HfM0E8sQA >Subject: RE: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects >Date: Fri, 9 Nov 2007 13:51:54 -0000 >X-MS-Has-Attach: >X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: >Thread-Topic: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects >Thread-Index: Acgcu6CzXk/3QRW7Rgqmov0iZUKnkwF+8aTw >From: "Jim Hall" >To: "Clare Goodess" , "Phil Jones" >Cc: "C G Kilsby" , , > "H J Fowler" , > "Richard Dawson" , > "Brown Virginia Miss (ENV)" >X-Newcastle-MailScanner-Information: Please contact >Postmaster@newcastle.ac.uk for more information >X-Newcastle-MailScanner: Found to be clean >X-Newcastle-MailScanner-MCPCheck: >X-Newcastle-MailScanner-From: jim.hall@newcastle.ac.uk >X-NCL-Spam-Status: No >X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 >X-UEA-Spam-Level: / >X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO > > >Dear Clare, Phil, Stuart, Hayley et al. > >Sorry it has taken me so long to get notes out from the meeting with >Phil et al on 26 October. In this message I will try to summarise the >methodology we are proposing and then address the timescale, >responsibilities and financial matters for implementation for the >Tyndall Cities work. > > >The background to this work is: > >In the Scorchio project Stuart Barr is developing a method for obtaining >spatial temperature patterns in urban areas from satellite data. Clare, >Chris and Phil are extending the Betwixt weather generator and peturbing >it with outputs from the new Had runs. We wish to combine the spatial >and temporal perspectives in order generate spatial-temporal scenarios >(the extent to which this needs to be developed in Scorchio is open to >interpretation in the propsal). >We wish to apply this same approach to London for Tyndall. We have an >allocation of 17k in 07/08 and 17k in 08/09 for CRU to contribute to >this work. We have plans to direct some RA time onto this in Newcastle >for Stuart's area of the work (see below). > > >The Hadley Centre runs: > >I just had a very useful conversation with Mark McCarthy at HC. His >programme is as follows: >Run 1: Transient run (1950 to 2100) A1B scenario with const >anthropogenic heat source (7W/m2 for Manc). To be done "for Jan 08"... >Vague about whether this would be beginning or end of Jan. >Run 2: Same run with linearly increasing heat flux. Not yet specified >what this will be, but representing quite a strong increase in heat >flux. Could be run at about the same time as Run 1 i.e. Jan next year. >Run 3: To be decided at a Scorchio stakeholder meeting in March. Could >be midway between 1 and 2 i.e. some adaptation. > >The urban anthropogenic heat fluxes will be applied for all urban areas >in the HadRM3 domain (i.e. we get London as well as Manc and Shef). He >was originally intending to apply the Manc heat flux (i.e. 7W/m2) for >all urban areas, but we discussed the possibility of applying something >different (higher) for London and he agreed that this would be possible. >In London the grid cells allow some differentiation between inner >(Westminster has 60-100W/m2) and outer (about 10W/m2) London. > >The land surface tiling is based on 9 surface types, urban being one of >them. > >He can save daily pressure data for weather type classification if >required. > >He mentioned the LUCID work and was enthusiastic about the Tyndall >application providing a comparison for London with the the LUCID outputs >(on a 1km grid 100km*100km but can only be run for 1 year due to >computational cost). > > >Outline of the proposed methodology: > >For present climate: >Newcastle: Obtain AVHRR satellite images. Process to obtain temperature >patterns for each satellite image. >UEA: Obtain weather station data for London (Heathrow, St James, >Holburn, and couple of outside London sites: Gatwick? Others?). >Calibrate weather generator (with Chris K). Establish method for scaling >Newcastle temperature patterns from selected weather station data. >Cross-validate with other weather stations. Examine the improvement >gained if the scaling relationship is conditioned on WG persistence >variables (WW, WD, DW, DD). This will deliver hindcast spatial patterns >of temperature (for comparison with any other observations that my >become available through LUCID) and synthetic time series patterns of >present day temperature. > >For future climate scenarios: >We have three anthropogenic heat source scenarios from Hadley (runs 1 to >3 above). Because the runs are transient and are based on the UKCIP08 >ensemble, for any desired climate scenario and time slice from the >UKCIP08 ensemble we can match the non-urban temperatures to extract the >corresponding time slice from these new urban runs (though we won't be >able to access the highest climate changes even at 2100). >UEA: Extract corresponding temperature change factors and other stats >for WG from Had runs. Run WG and scale spatial temperature patterns as >previously, conditioning as appropriate on persistence variables. >Newcastle: Develop scenarios of changing land use and anthropogenic heat >sources. Use these to modify temperature patterns used in the scenario >generation. > >Hope that makes sense. > > >Next steps: >UEA: confirm funding arrangement with Virginia Brown. Tyndall Phase 2 is >pre-FEC so the funds can all go to Colin's salary. >UEA: confirm that methodology makes sense and confirm timescales for >delivery, given Had proposed timescale for RCM runs (above). >UEA: start assembling weather station data and calibrating weather >generator >Stuart: start assembling AVHRR images and processing temperatures >Jim: email Mark McCarthy to confirm arrangements >Jim: confirm UCL Lucid heat flux estimate for London (I'll see Mike >Davies on 22 Nov) > >Is that all? > > > >Best regards > >Jim > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Clare Goodess [mailto:C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk] > > Sent: 01 November 2007 19:15 > > To: Jim Hall > > Subject: Fwd: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects > > > > Hi Jim > > > > Phil, Colin and I met today to discuss the Tyndall urban work > > - and it sounds like you had a useful meeting with Phil last week. > > > > One thing that emerged from our meeting today, is how to > > handle the financial aspects. Is the money earmarked for us > > in the Newcastle budget? Will this be a subcontract? > > Presumably it will be full economic costs, but hopefully we > > can ensure that the bulk goes on Colin's salary rather than > > having to cost in Phil's time. > > > > Is it Virginia Brown we need to liase with here? > > > > Best wishes, Clare > > > > > > >X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.1.0.9 > > >Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2007 09:44:14 +0000 > > >To: c.goodess@uea.ac.uk,c.harpham@uea.ac.uk > > >From: Phil Jones > > >Subject: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects > > > > > > Clare, > > > The attached is a summary of discussions I had with Jim > > Hall and > > > others last Friday in Newcastle. > > > > > > Cheers > > > Phil > > > > > > > > >Prof. Phil Jones > > >Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > >School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > >University of East Anglia > > >Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > >NR4 7TJ > > >UK > > >------------------------------------------------------------- > > ---------- > > >----- > > > > > > > > > > Dr Clare Goodess > > Climatic Research Unit > > School of Environmental Sciences > > University of East Anglia > > Norwich > > NR4 7TJ > > UK > > > > Tel: +44 -1603 592875 > > Fax: +44 -1603 507784 > > Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm > > > > > > > > Dr Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: +44 -1603 592875 Fax: +44 -1603 507784 Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm