cc: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Fri, 3 Feb 2006 10:36:09 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Fwd: new fig to: Eystein Jansen

Great, thanks! Since that fig is TS bound, it would be ideal to get the data to Keith/Tim by early next week. Thx again! Peck >Hi, >I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times. >Cheers, >Eystein > >>thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel . >>Keith >> >>At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>>Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new >>>figure is quite compelling, and a nice >>>complement to the other two panels. I agree it >>>would be good to get the Northern Hem >>>Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him well >>>enough to ask? (I never even met him, but >>>could ask if you don't know him). >>> >>>What you have created will take some good work >>>on the caption to explain, but it has my vote. >>> >>>What is your plan for dealing with the new >>>German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are >>>you sure these runs can't be worked in, >>>perhaps as a new panel? At least we have >>>Susan's support for the new runs, so we do >>>what we have to do. >>> >>>As for work and time, we are running out. Just >>>do the best you can, and hopefully the new >>>section will emerge sometime next week. >>> >>>Highest priority (please do first) - we need 3 >>>TS-contender figures (and captions) by early >>>next week: >>> >>>1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption >>>2) the fig you've attached to this email - >>>with caption (were we going to try to put all >>>the model runs/refs/color key into a table, so >>>the caption could be shorter than in the FOD? >>>Think this would be better, so caption is >>>shorter) >>>3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model >>>runs (update of the fig we showed for first >>>time in ChCh - using a version of the lower >>>panel you attached to this email - with caption >>> >>>There is little doubt you guys have the >>>hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and >>>possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work will >>>have huge impact, and the extra effort is >>>really appreciated well beyond me and Eystein. >>>I wish we could offer up a time machine to >>>make it easier, but... just keep plugging. >>> >>>thanks! Peck >>> >>>>Peck and Eystein >>>>we are having trouble to express the real >>>>message of the reconstructions - being >>>>scientifically sound in representing >>>>uncertainty , while still getting the crux of >>>>the information across clearly. It is not >>>>right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing >>>>this merely in an arbitrary way (and as a >>>>total range as before) allows the uncertainty >>>>to swamp the magnitude of the changes through >>>>time . We have settled on this version >>>>(attached) of the Figure which we hoe you >>>>will agree gets the message over but with the >>>>rigor required for such an important document. >>>> >>>>We have added a box to show the "probability >>>>surface" for the most likely estimate of past >>>>temperatures based on all published data. By >>>>overlapping all reconstructions and giving a >>>>score of 2 to all areas within the 1 standard >>>>error range of the estimates for each >>>>reconstruction , and a score of 1 for the >>>>area between 1 and 2 standard errors, you >>>>build up a composite picture of the most >>>>likely or "concensus" path that temperatures >>>>took over the last 1200 years (note - now >>>>with a linear time axis). This still shows >>>>the outlier ranges , preserving all the >>>>information, but you see the central most >>>>likely area well , and the comparison of past >>>>and recent temperature levels is not as >>>>influenced by the outlier estimates. What do >>>>you think? We have experimented with >>>>different versions of the shading and this >>>>one shows up quite well - but we may have to >>>>use some all grey version as the background >>>>to the overlay of the model results. >>>>We have also experimented with changing the >>>>normalisation base for the >>>>model/reconstruction Figure , but using the >>>>same short modern period as for the first >>>>Figure is not satisfactory - more on this >>>>later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as >>>>many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL >>>>curve - can you get the separate North and >>>>Southern Hemisphere curves (with uncertainty) >>>>. I do not see that the new model runs from >>>>Germany/Switzerland will fit easily in the >>>>existing Figure and need to be separate! I am >>>>really struggling with the text also - really >>>>need more time!!!! More later >>>>Keith >>>> >>>>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16 >>>>>Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000 >>>>>To: Keith Briffa >>>>>From: Tim Osborn >>>>>Subject: new fig >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Dr Timothy J Osborn >>>>>Climatic Research Unit >>>>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >>>>>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >>>>> >>>>>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>>>>phone: +44 1603 592089 >>>>>fax: +44 1603 507784 >>>>>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >>>>>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm >>>> >>>>-- >>>>Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>Climatic Research Unit >>>>University of East Anglia >>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>> >>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>> >>>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>> >>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh >>>>HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /«IC») >>>>(0010B41B) >>> >>> >>>-- >>>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>> >>>Mail and Fedex Address: >>> >>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>University of Arizona >>>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> >>-- >>Professor Keith Briffa, >>Climatic Research Unit >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > > >-- >______________________________________________________________ >Eystein Jansen >Professor/Director >Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >Allégaten 55 >N-5007 Bergen >NORWAY >e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 >Fax: +47-55-584330 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/