cc: Jason Bell , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk date: Thu, 21 Sep 2000 14:38:13 -0700 from: Jason Bell subject: Re: natural variability v model data to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, Thank you for your response and the copy of your paper. The data I have looks roughly like what you have plotted in your Figure 10. I will include the data and some of the correspondence between Phil and Curt. I'd be more than happy to let you see results at some point. Thanks again, Jason ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Jason L. Bell Department of Earth Science University of California Santa Cruz, CA 95064 ph: (831)459-3504 fax: (831)459-3074 http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~jbell ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ------included text------ Subject: More hi-res paleodata, etc. Date: Thu, 01 Jun 2000 16:39:11 -0700 From: Curtis Covey To: Jason Bell CC: Phil Duffy , Lisa Sloan , Phil Jones , Tom Crowley Jason Bell UC Santa Cruz Dear Jason, Some further thoughts on using high resolution paleodata to follow up our paper in GRL 27, 261 (2000): (1) I attach Briffa's data and Jones' data together with a plot graphing it and some correspondence with Phil Jones that serves as documentation. Papers referenced in the correspondence (from The Holocene and Quaternary Science Rev) will presumably define "warm season average" so that you can process the model output in a comparable way. ......... 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1865 -0.3657 -0.2596 -0.2560 -0.1400 0.2783 1866 -0.6163 -0.3170 -0.4370 -0.1000 -0.0500 1867 -0.4081 -0.3229 -0.4130 -0.2600 -0.4250 1868 -0.2732 -0.2870 -0.1190 -0.0300 0.3750 1869 -0.3580 -0.3528 -0.3210 -0.0900 0.0917 1870 -0.3079 -0.5098 -0.2130 -0.2000 0.1950 1871 -0.2847 -0.4476 -0.3520 -0.3500 -0.2183 1872 -0.3580 -0.3558 -0.1630 -0.0800 0.3133 1873 -0.1999 -0.3287 -0.1830 -0.2200 -0.2500 1874 -0.3079 -0.3774 -0.3720 -0.2600 -0.0517 1875 -0.2616 -0.3560 -0.2470 -0.5000 -0.3067 1876 -0.3696 -0.3091 -0.4870 -0.3400 -0.1100 1877 -0.3657 -0.1340 -0.1920 -0.0200 -0.2717 1878 -0.3040 -0.2073 0.1200 0.2000 0.2550 1879 -0.5045 -0.4159 -0.1520 -0.2600 -0.2783 1880 -0.6819 -0.3568 -0.3460 -0.2500 -0.1033 1881 -0.4660 -0.3177 -0.1840 -0.2800 -0.1433 1882 -0.5546 -0.3236 -0.2000 -0.2200 -0.3833 1883 -0.3773 -0.3689 -0.1830 -0.3400 -0.3867 1884 -0.4043 -0.3325 -0.7170 -0.3900 -0.7067 1885 -0.4582 -0.3096 -0.5340 -0.3400 -0.5900 1886 -0.3079 -0.2284 -0.4850 -0.2600 -0.2533 1887 -0.2654 -0.4465 -0.2810 -0.2800 -0.2200 1888 -0.4428 -0.2894 -0.2610 -0.2500 -0.4517 1889 -0.2654 -0.2539 -0.1530 -0.1400 -0.2100 1890 -0.3580 -0.4307 -0.3410 -0.3500 -0.2667 1891 -0.4428 -0.2954 -0.3130 -0.2700 -0.4167 1892 -0.4235 -0.4386 -0.1380 -0.4300 -0.3133 1893 -0.1498 -0.4436 -0.3010 -0.5100 -0.3550 1894 -0.1960 -0.3170 -0.1340 -0.3600 -0.2117 1895 -0.3580 -0.2778 -0.1280 -0.3900 -0.2250 1896 -0.4544 -0.2004 -0.2410 -0.1600 -0.2017 1897 -0.2346 -0.1737 -0.0160 -0.1300 0.0200 1898 -0.1960 -0.3395 0.0650 -0.2600 -0.2017 1899 -0.4968 -0.4686 -0.5740 -0.1700 -0.2200 1900 -0.1922 -0.2453 -0.2180 -0.0700 -0.0950 1901 -0.1035 -0.2775 -0.0490 -0.1300 0.0217 1902 -0.3811 -0.4863 -0.2870 -0.3700 -0.6283 1903 -0.4737 -0.3550 -0.1420 -0.3900 -0.6017 1904 -0.1845 -0.5051 -0.2050 -0.4700 -0.5667 1905 -0.1690 -0.3192 -0.3080 -0.3200 -0.3133 1906 -0.2577 -0.2497 -0.0340 -0.2300 -0.0600 1907 -0.6048 -0.4665 -0.4120 -0.5100 -0.8000 1908 -0.1652 -0.4820 -0.0480 -0.4800 -0.4150 1909 -0.3696 -0.5312 -0.2140 -0.4600 -0.4850 1910 -0.2192 -0.3969 -0.1470 -0.4200 -0.3550 1911 -0.1305 -0.3318 -0.1940 -0.4100 -0.2750 1912 -0.3541 -0.4456 -0.6310 -0.4800 -0.6967 1913 -0.3310 -0.3491 -0.1610 -0.4500 -0.5417 1914 -0.2346 -0.2948 -0.2940 -0.2400 -0.3050 1915 -0.1652 -0.2272 -0.0740 -0.0900 -0.2717 1916 -0.1536 -0.3157 -0.2770 -0.3600 -0.4067 1917 -0.2153 -0.4389 -0.2970 -0.5400 -0.4550 1918 -0.3117 -0.3335 -0.4600 -0.3900 -0.4883 1919 -0.1112 -0.2027 -0.0130 -0.3500 -0.2350 1920 -0.2115 -0.3071 -0.2720 -0.2600 -0.1450 1921 0.0160 -0.2761 -0.1140 -0.1300 0.0933 1922 -0.0688 -0.3996 -0.0360 -0.2600 -0.0333 1923 -0.1343 -0.1635 -0.3050 -0.2100 -0.2983 1924 -0.2115 -0.1880 -0.1410 -0.2600 -0.1933 1925 -0.0495 -0.2843 -0.2580 -0.1300 -0.0167 1926 0.0045 -0.0008 -0.1150 0.0200 -0.2733 1927 -0.1151 -0.1524 -0.1980 -0.1100 -0.0650 1928 -0.0456 -0.0517 -0.0180 -0.1500 -0.2800 1929 0.0160 -0.2897 -0.1610 -0.3500 -0.2250 1930 0.0508 0.0327 0.0860 -0.0300 0.0517 1931 -0.0688 -0.1373 0.1040 0.0300 0.0417 1932 -0.0302 -0.0956 0.0810 -0.0100 0.1483 1933 -0.0071 -0.2345 -0.0570 -0.2200 -0.0650 1934 0.1587 -0.0457 0.0070 -0.0500 0.0500 1935 0.0546 0.0127 -0.0370 -0.0900 -0.1167 1936 0.1279 -0.0130 -0.0190 -0.0300 0.1700 1937 0.0045 0.1202 0.0600 0.0900 0.2733 1938 -0.0264 0.0682 0.1630 0.1900 0.3767 1939 -0.0302 0.0472 -0.0750 0.0800 0.1950 1940 -0.1035 -0.1170 0.1130 -0.0600 0.0800 1941 -0.0842 0.0422 -0.2000 0.0400 -0.0483 1942 0.0199 -0.0159 0.1280 0.0700 0.0000 1943 -0.0187 0.0420 0.0530 0.1300 0.2317 1944 -0.0341 0.1581 -0.0800 0.2600 0.1850 1945 0.0508 0.0159 0.0590 0.0500 0.0083 1946 -0.0187 0.0162 -0.0160 0.0300 0.1417 1947 0.1124 0.1052 -0.1880 -0.0100 0.1183 1948 -0.1845 0.0451 -0.0380 0.0400 0.2067 1949 0.0315 -0.1243 -0.1070 0.0000 0.0183 1950 0.1703 -0.0634 -0.2690 -0.1400 -0.0883 1951 -0.1459 -0.1399 -0.1000 0.0700 0.1400 1952 0.1394 -0.0286 -0.1180 0.0700 0.2017 1953 0.0777 -0.0924 0.1610 0.2100 0.3350 1954 -0.2693 -0.0450 -0.2350 -0.0600 -0.0117 1955 -0.0572 -0.0061 -0.1270 -0.0500 0.0567 1956 -0.1189 -0.1857 -0.3080 -0.2400 -0.3300 1957 -0.0534 0.0089 -0.1940 0.0600 -0.0667 1958 0.0083 0.1443 -0.3080 0.1800 -0.0700 1959 0.0777 0.0692 -0.2240 0.0900 0.1117 1960 0.1317 0.1396 0.0760 0.0600 -0.0167 1961 -0.0264 0.0450 0.1550 0.0700 0.1550 1962 -0.1883 -0.0382 0.0450 0.1100 0.0450 1963 -0.0881 0.0179 0.0183 0.1600 0.0183 1964 -0.1690 -0.0121 -0.2333 -0.1700 -0.2333 1965 -0.1652 -0.0798 -0.3450 -0.1400 -0.3450 1966 -0.1729 0.1213 -0.0567 0.0100 -0.0567 1967 -0.0534 -0.0178 -0.0100 0.0300 -0.0100 1968 -0.3079 0.0528 -0.1783 -0.0200 -0.1783 1969 0.0160 0.0692 -0.2000 -0.0300 -0.2000 1970 0.0469 0.0131 -0.0217 -0.0300 -0.0217 1971 -0.0148 -0.2276 -0.1417 -0.1700 -0.1417 1972 -0.1266 -0.0813 -0.2983 -0.1900 -0.2983 1973 0.0238 -0.0137 0.0533 0.0600 0.0533 1974 -0.0418 -0.2210 -0.1000 -0.2200 -0.1000 1975 -0.1459 -0.0782 0.1900 -0.0900 0.1900 1976 0.1626 -0.0744 -0.2283 -0.2700 -0.2283 1977 -0.0302 0.0494 0.2317 0.0500 0.2317 1978 -0.2693 -0.0222 -0.1250 -0.0200 -0.1250 1979 -0.2346 0.1373 -0.0750 0.0500 -0.0750 1980 -0.2539 0.0014 0.0667 0.0900 0.0667 1981 0.3250 0.2400 0.3250 0.2400 0.3250 1982 -0.0050 0.0400 -0.0050 0.0400 -0.0050 1983 0.1833 0.2400 0.1833 0.2400 0.1833 1984 0.0250 -0.0500 0.0250 -0.0500 0.0250 1985 0.0033 -0.0900 0.0033 -0.0900 0.0033 1986 0.0733 0.0900 0.0733 0.0900 0.0733 1987 0.1150 0.2000 0.1150 0.2000 0.1150 1988 0.5050 0.2800 0.5050 0.2800 0.5050 1989 0.3717 0.2200 0.3717 0.2200 0.3717 1990 0.5050 0.4600 0.5050 0.4600 0.5050 1991 0.4883 0.3500 0.4883 0.3500 0.4883 1992 -0.1933 0.1500 -0.1933 0.1500 -0.1933 1993 0.0000 0.1800 0.0000 0.1800 0.0000 1994 0.6033 0.3300 0.6033 0.3300 0.6033 1995 0.5383 0.5300 0.5383 0.5300 0.5383 1996 0.1117 0.2200 0.1117 0.2200 0.1117 1997 0.4200 0.5000 0.4200 0.5000 0.4200 1998 0.9817 0.6700 0.9817 0.6700 0.9817 1999 0.7500 0.4400 0.7500 0.4400 0.7500 Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 16:39:56 +0100 To: Curtis Covey From: Phil Jones Subject: Re: GRL / IPCC follow-up? Curt, The attached file has the data you want. There are 5 columns (mine, Mike Mann's, Keith's, Annual NH and JJA NH). The last two are instrumental and only start in the 1850s. Keith's starts about 1400. All are wrt 1961-90. You will see that for the 3 multiproxy series this file has been extended to 1999 by adding in instrumental data for the season and region each was supposed to represent. The other attachment is a figure of the first 3 which has appeared on the front cover of the WMO statement for 1999. I hope these are what you want. I'm away now for the rest of this week and next. I will still be checking my email periodically. Cheers Phil At 11:01 AM 3/31/00 -0800, you wrote: >Dear Phil, > >Thanks for your message. We would indeed be interested in >your data (as shown in Fig. 7 of your paper in The Holocene, >8: 455-471, 1998). If you could send the time series in plain >ASCII text, that would be fine. > >Should I contact Keith Briffa separately for his data? > >Sincerely, > >Curt >covey1@llnl.gov > >=========================================== >Phil Jones wrote: > >> Curt, >> The only reference is that paper in The Holocene. Keith Briffa's >> paper on the 400 or so NH tree ring density series has come out >> in Quat. Sci. Rev. (2000) 19, 87-105. One of the figures in this is >> wrong and the'll be an addendum in a later issue. >> >> Cheers >> Phil >> >> At 11:48 AM 3/22/00 -0800, you wrote: >> > Phil Jones wrote: Curt, >> > I've been away, out of contact, the last 10 days. I am interested, >> > so keep me posted. I can send you the Jones/Briffa paleo series if >> > you don't already have them. Away next week as well. >> > >> >> >> >>>No rush, but we are interested in working with that >> >>>time series (in analogous fashion to what we're doing >> >>> Is the best reference still Jones et >> >>>al., The Holocene 8: 455 (1998)? Curt >> >>>covey1@llnl.gov >> >> >> > >> Prof. Phil Jones >> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >> University of East Anglia >> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >> NR4 7TJ >> UK >> >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Keith Briffa wrote: > Hi Jason > I have no idea (as he didn't tell me he was ) which data set Phil > has passed on. In fact there are several regional series and one composite > ( representing a pseudo i.e. higher latitudes) Northern Hemisphere > average record of tree-ring densities. You may have one of > different normalised version of this composite. The composite has also > been directly calibrated against two observed temperature records - 1. Mean > april-sept land temperatures for all grid boxes for which there are > temperature observations , and 2. northern Hemisphere land north of 20 > degrees north. You could have an early version of these (which were > effectively high-pass filtered by the processing method and so display > muted low-frequency) , or the more relevant (in your case) reprocessed > series with retained low frequency . Note that both have error estimates > which should not be ignored in the comparisons you are doing. If you send > some of the data we can identify them - either way you should have the most > recent data which we will send if necessary . These data are not properly > published . The definitive paper is in press in JGR and I hope it will > appear in the next 2 months. I will ask my colleague Tim Osborn to email > you a PDF file. Incidentally , the sort of work you describe has also been > done by Matt Collins (using our data and the Hadley Centre Model). He has a > paper in submission I think and you may care to ask him for a copy ( I will > cc this message to him) . His email is mat@met.reading.ac.uk > We are very interested in this sort of work , and indeed Tim,Phil and I are > engaged on a similar project. We would be happy to see any results, papers > etc. so stay in touch > best wishes and good luck > Keith > > At 02:55 PM 9/20/00 -0700, you wrote: > >Dear Dr. Briffa, > > > > I'm working with Curt Covey on a project to compare natural climate > >variability in several proxy reconstructions to internal variability of > >multiple long climate model simulations. Curt has given me a data set > >of yours which he obtained from Phil Jones. I was hoping you could > >confirm some information for me about the data set. > > > > The reference I have for the data is your "Annual climate > >variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees", > >Quaternary Science Reviews, 19, 2000. The data I have goes back to AD > >1402 and my understanding is that it represents global warm and growing > >season temperatures. In the above reference though there is no single > >composite time series, and there are several individual time series that > >date well back before AD 1402. Could you tell me if I have the correct > >reference for this data set and if so what the specifics of the data > >are? Specifically which tree ring records it is composed of and whether > >it really is a global or hemispheric proxy and any other pertinent > >information which I may have neglected. > > > > If you need more specifics about the data set please let me know. > >Thank you in advance for any help you may be able to provide. > > > >Cordially, > >Jason Bell > > > > > >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > >Jason L. Bell > >Department of Earth Science > >University of California > >Santa Cruz, CA 95064 > >ph: (831)459-3504 > >fax: (831)459-3074 > >http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~jbell > >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > -- > Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom > Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784