date: Fri Feb 4 16:32:17 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Journalist Daniel Glick's inquiry to: Dan, I will unfortunately be on travel for much of the rest of the month. I have Feb 6-10 in Madrid, 12-20 in Pune, India and 22-25 in Chicago. So I don't have the time. Whether I have the heart and stomach is another matter. I think I would have. I am a convening lead author on the next IPCC report, so it would be good to keep in touch. I would appreciate a copy of your finished article for Audobon. Mike Mann's work is of particular interest to me. I don't think it is far from what really happened. We'll never know for sure - our grandchildren will have a lot more proxy records. Mike's probably told you about the web site he and others have set up to respond to a lot of the hype [1]http://www.realclimate.org/ . Mike keeps trying to get me write some things for this, but there is no enough time in the day. A lot of interest has been generated by it, but I doubt it will convince the Crichton's of this world. Why he has embarked on this crusade is anybody's guess. All I can say is that he is getting bad advice. You might be aware that some new twists on the records for the last 1000 years will appear soon. There is a paper in Nature (Feb8/9 issue) with a new 2000 year series. It has greater amplitude than Mike Mann's, but still has the recent period as the warmest. Another paper will appear in GRL by two skeptics (McIntyre and McKittrick). This claims to have found a mistake in Mike's method. Their new curve has the warmest century by far in the 15th century. None of the 6-7 curves of the last millennium have the 15th century as warm - it is probably the 4th coldest. So they have made a much bigger mistake than Mike - even if he made one at all ! Both paper would be worth your reading - and they both should make a splash. The one thing the skeptics can achieve is a lot of publicity. Unfortunately sowing doubts sometimes bears fruit. I'll be around in March, so if you've not finished and want some input then, then email me again. Apologies again ! Cheers Phil At 14:42 04/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr. Jones, We corresponded last year while I was researching a cover story for National Geographic magazine on climate change (it appeared in the September 2004 issue). I have another somewhat less august task at hand, and was hoping you might be able to help. I don't know if you have caught wind of a bestselling novel written by Michael Crichton (Jurassic Park, Andromeda Strain), which has generated some controversy here because of its misrepresentation of climate change science, among other things. I have been asked by Audubon magazine to write about l'affaire Crichton, not simply because his book will likely sell orders of magnitudes more copies than the top ten non-fiction books on climate change, but also because he is making it something of a crusade to make public talks denouncing climate change research -- and researchers. One target in public talks (and in the book) has been Michael Mann's work, which I imagine might be of particular interest to you. I also imagine that debating a fiction writer about climate change science may seem to be a particularly futile endeavor. But if you have the heart and stomach for it, I would welcome your comments. If you are unaware of the particulars, I can send you specific references and questions for you. If you are au courant, then please feel free to comment. With your permission, I would appreciate the opportunity to quote from your email in my article. If there are others whom you think I should also contact, I am all ears. Warm regards, Daniel Glick Daniel Glick 303 543-9086 3590 Nyland Way Lafayette, Colorado 80026 daniel@danielglick.net [2]www.danielglick.net -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[3]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 10:32 AM To: Dan Glick Subject: Re: National Geographic inquiry Dear Dan, I am off home in the next few minutes, but if you send something I'll try and have a look over the next few days. Let me know how soon you want comments back. Cheers Phil At 10:03 14/11/2003 -0700, you wrote: Dr. Jones, I was wondering if you might be willing and able to take a look at the section of my draft article on climate change that includes a mention of your work. I am anxious to be as accurate as I can possibly be. Thanks, Dan Glick Daniel Glick 3590 Nyland Way Lafayette, CO 80026 [4]daniel@danielglick.net [5]http://www.danielglick.net ----- Original Message ----- From: [6]Phil Jones To: [7]Dan Glick Sent: Friday, September 05, 2003 4:21 AM Subject: Re: National Geographic inquiry Dear Dan, I will be able to talk to you. I will be away Sept 23-24 and most of October at meetings, so if you can get hold of me before the end of September. My direct line is in the email tail. You will obviously get an array of answers to your questions from different people. Another person to talk to would be Ray Bradley (at UMASS, Amherst) and Tom Wigley (at NCAR). It would seem easier to answer your questions on the phone and then perhaps elaborate over email on specific. The paleo data, for example, are just extensions of instrumental records. The latter are used for the detail of patterns of changes and for linking to possible causal factors. Paleo data allow us to place the recent past in a longer context. I'm writing a longer piece with Mike Mann, which would be useful for you to read, but it's not in a form yet we can send out. We will be going into some of the same issues, but our readerships will be different. Paper will be for Reviews of Geophysics (RoG). A couple of things for you to look at - or think about. 1. I had a paper in RoG in 1999. Jones, P.D., New, M., Parker, D.E., Martin, S. and Rigor, I.G., 1999: Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37, 173-199. 2. Ray Bradley's book in 1999 on Paleoclimatology. Ray's email is rbradley@geo.umass.edu 3. I'll forward you an email about some paleo work that has come out over the last few months that has generated a lot of controversy. I just want to make you aware of the issues and some people's agendas and sensitivities. Cheers Phil At 13:50 04/09/2003 -0600, you wrote: Dear Professor Jones, I am an American journalist working on a article for National Geographic Magazine about observed changes in the earth and its physical processes. An integral part of my story will be to explore two simple (and sometimes evasive) questions: What do we know about how the planet is changing; and How do we know what we know? I would like very much if you might be willing to help me address these two questions with reference to global temperatures. With high hopes that you might help me understand and disseminate this information to a broad, lay audience, I make the following requests: For starters, I would appreciate it if you would assign me some homework. (I have in hand your recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters, as well as your Science article of April 27, 2001.) One thing I am interested in is tracing a brief evolution of climate research itself: Who, for example, is credited with first seeing data sets that indicated unusual warming patterns? What were some of the difficult methodological issues that had to be confronted when assessing the data? How did people go about reconciling different data sets, then calibrating them to become meaningful on a global scale? How did the science of proxy measurements begin to gain scientific credibility? What were some of the famous, or infamous, bumps in the scientific road? I realize this is a vast topic, and frankly it is only one part of my upcoming article about physical change. But I see it as the platform that helps make sense of other observed changes, like glacier melt and sea level rise. Obviously the contention that 20th century temperatures are anomalously high is one of the foundations of other global climate changes. Forgive this long-winded email. Would you would be willing to point me in the direction of some good reading on the subject, and then be gracious enough to consent to an interview? We could talk by telephone at your convenience (I am on travel for most of the next two weeks, but will be available afterwards), or conduct a series of email "conversations." If you are unable to help me, or even if you are, would you be kind enough to suggest other scientists who might be able to speak to the questions I pose here? Thank you for your time. Regards, Dan Daniel Glick 3590 Nyland Way Lafayette, CO 80026 [8]daniel@danielglick.net [9]http://www.danielglick.net Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------