cc: Alan Robock date: Wed Sep 1 09:04:23 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: temperature trend in Antarctic to: Konstantin Vinnikov Kostya, Here are two sets of time series. The first is what I've called Antarctica for years (all 5 deg boxes with data from 60-90 S). This is the one that is plotted in Jones and Moberg (2003) Figure 2. I've also calculated one for 65-90S and that is the second one attached. Both are based only on land data - NO SSTs for the periphery in some summer months come in. You can take your pick which one you use. The series run from 1851, as the program calculates other continents. For the Antarctic the numbers are only useful from about 1956. Before this there were just a few stations in the Peninsula and one other location from the late-1940s. So ignore all lines from 1851 to 1955. You only want data from 1978 (Nov) anyway. The final month is July 2004. The annual average for 2004 is wrong - it shouldn't use the last 5 zeroes. Thanks for alerting me to Alan's site. Cheers Phil At 01:05 01/09/2004, Konstantin Vinnikov wrote: Dear Phil, I do not like my estimates of 1978-2004 trend for Antarctic from your gridded data. I am unable to average data properly. I would prefer to use your averaging for Antarctic. As I understand it is the area LAT>65S. I have your time series for Antarctic up to 2002. Would you be so kind as to send me an updating. I use all other data for the time interval from November 1978 to February 2004. Alan is working to convert our paper for Nature. He is at McMurdo in Antarctic. I looked through his Antarctic web site and did not see any warming at all. Trend in the Antarctic averages that you sent me ~a year ago was ~0.06 K/10 yr. It is twice less and more realistic compared to the trend estimate in our manuscript. I am working with seasonal-latitudinal distribution of the same trends, but my current estimates are very preliminary and very noisy, even for model simulations. It looks as if Zonal and Annual averaging of our data is more or less optimal for such a short period of observations. Yours, Kostya ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dr. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov Office: (301) 405-5382 Department of Meteorology Home: (301) 779-2970 University of Maryland Fax: (301) 314-9482 College Park, MD 20742 E-mail: kostya@atmos.umd.edu Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------