cc: Gavin Schmidt , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Tue, 19 Aug 2008 08:53:57 -0400 from: Michael Mann subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper to: Phil Jones p.s. regarding the CET issue, I realize that may not be our intent, but I'd hate for us to produce a graphic so easily misrepresented by the naysayers. We reallyneed to find a way to show the true current warmth on the scale, either throuh not dropping the end, or showing the raw annual series for comparison to the smoothed long-term curves, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Gavin, On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of the annual CET record were omitted from the smoothed plot. Tim's away, but when he did this with them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The purpose of the piece was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same. It wasn't to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the red/blue lines, as they are crap anyway. The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in the IPCC diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully back in or dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes quite a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is that CET has been so warm the last 20 years or so. Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the summer is lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year. Warmth in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds when it comes to warming. Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been written by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I will mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff. Cheers Phil At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote: Hi Phil, traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over. only 2 substantial comments: 1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3 (bottom of page 52/page 53), but the lack of acknowledgement here in this key summary that we actually introduced the idea of 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling. the end of the first sentence: - e.g., Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002, Küttel et al., 2007), should be changed to: - e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002, Rutherford et al, 2003; Küttel et al., 2007), 2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the description of smoothing in Appendix A Figure 1. It sounds like the last 12 years were removed from the end of the series? If so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past decade that takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would suggest one of two alternative approaches: a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I don't see any objective justification for doing that) or b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how the most recent values compare w/ the MWP peak. By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press in GRL, I've attached. Please don't distribute or cite prior to publication (which should be one or two weeks from now). thanks, mike Phil Jones wrote: Dear All, Here's the revised version of the paper, together with the responses to the reviewers. We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him by the beginning of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next Monday is a national holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look through your parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week or over the weekend? Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and let me know of any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I think just look wrong? I hope you'll think of this as an improvement. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [2]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 website: [3] http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm "Dire Predictions" book site: [4] http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [5]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [6]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 website: [7]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm "Dire Predictions" book site: [8]http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,0 0.html