cc: Sarah Raper , Sarah Raper date: Thu, 30 Sep 2004 12:46:55 -0600 from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: Talk at AAAS in Feb? to: Stephen H Schneider Steve, OK, I'm in. The title is fine. For glaciers, you could contact Sarah Raper. This is one of the things she has been working on for the past few years -- although she has not looked at detection per se (in a statistical sense). Then again, no-one has. Tom. ======================= Stephen H Schneider wrote: >Hi Tom, Terry and I just got our session apporved on detection and >attribution in various areas. We hope you would want to do it for the >climate signal--methods and all. Here is our placeholder abstract and >speaker list: > > >Detection and Attribution--Methods and Results--of Climate Trends in >Temperature >Sensors, Species and Glaciers >Organized by: Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University; Terry Root, >Stanford University >Detection of anthropogenic influence on climatic trends has been >well-established since the Second Assessment Report (SAR) >of the Intergovernmental Panel on CLimate Change (IPCC) in 1995, and >detection of significant responses of plants and >animals to climate trends has been established since the 2001 IPCC Working >Group 2 Third Assessment Report (TAR). Also, >the worldwide shrinkage of glaciers is also well documented. What has not >been shown yet to a high degree of confidence, is >whether the responses of plants and animals is a result of natural or >anthropogenic climate changes-or both--until now, as this >sessions will include recent analyses that suggest a discernible impact of >anthropogenic climate trends in the records of plant >and animal movements over the last half of the 20th century. Methods for >detections and attribution will be explored in each >case--atmospheric temperture trends, glacial trends and species >trends--and techniques to estimate confidence will also be >discussed. In view of the importance of attribution to the overall climate >change policy debate, an investigation of the >confidence that can be assessed over results and methods for detection and >attribution is timely. >Participants Status >Contact 1 Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University Accepted >Organizer 1 Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University >Accepted >Coorganizer 1 Terry Root, Stanford University Accepted >Speaker 1 J. Alan Pounds, Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and >Tropical Invited > Tropical Cloud Forest Trends >Speaker 2 Terry Root, Stanford University Accepted > Temperate and Polar Zone Species Responses to Temperature Trends >Speaker 3 Tom WIgley, National Center for Atmos Res >Invited > Detection and Attribution of Climate Trends >Speaker 4 Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University Accepted > Can We Identify and Quantify "Dangerous Climate Changes?" >Speaker 5 John Walsh, University of Alaska Invited > Detection and Attribution of Glacier Trend > >I just bumped into John in Vienna at IPCC and he is doubtful. Have any >suggestions for a detection and attribution glaciers & sea ice person? >Of course, you can speak on "dangerous" too if you want, but we need a >good methodological talk on climate D&A. You'd be great at it and there >will be tons of media, of course. > >So, what do you think?? YOu could go to the Fellows breakfast you missed >this year too!! Cheers, Stev > >------ >Stephen H. Schneider >Professor, Dept. of Biological Sciences; >Co-Director, Center for Environmental Science and Policy >Stanford University >Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A. > >Tel: (650)725-9978 >Fax: (650)725-4387 >e-mail: shs@stanford.edu >website: http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu > > > > > >