date: Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:28:06 +1000 from: Janice Lough subject: RE: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper to: "Phil Jones" Hi Phil Yes, probably being a bit picky.............Have added "at some coral sites" in the following sentence where Gavin had "where?". There isn't enough space (nor do I think it necessary) to detail which sites are more/less effected - the main point is (as demonstrated by the coral vs inst. SST trends in the next sentence) that this mixed signal is an important source of uncertainty in obtaining a pure SST signal in coral oxygen isotope records. "For example, δ18O records can overestimate 20th century SST warming if the coral record is considered only as a temperature record and the standard temperature dependence relationship of about -0.2 18O /°C is appllied, as regional freshening at some coral sites has likely contributed to coral 18O trends." Hope this helps, Janice Janice M. Lough Principal Research Scientist Australian Institute of Marine Science PMB 3, Townsville MC Queensland 4810 Australia email: j.lough@aims.gov.au Tel: (07) 47 534248 Fax: (07) 47 725852 -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Wednesday, 20 August 2008 17:40 PM To: Janice Lough Subject: Fwd: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper Janice, I'll incorporate most of Gavin's comments. I also have just received a couple from Sandy. Can you define this regional freshening a bit? This is in section 2.2.3. Gavin could be being picky, but have a quick look. Cheers Phil >X-Authentication-Warning: isotope.giss.nasa.gov: >gavin set sender to gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov using -f >Subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper >From: Gavin Schmidt >To: Phil Jones >Organization: >X-Mailer: Ximian Evolution 1.2.2 (1.2.2-5) >Date: 19 Aug 2008 13:07:32 -0400 >X-Spam-Score: undef - message too big (size: 4772568, limit: 153600) >X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from UEA:default,base:default) >X-Canit-Stats-ID: Bayes signature not available >X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 139.222.131.184 > >Phil, here are some edits - mostly language, a couple of bits of logic, >an attempt to soothe Mike on the borehole bit, and a paragraph for >consideration in the Appendix. Two questions require a little thinking - >the reference to 'regional freshening' on the coral section needs to be >more specific - I doubt it is a global phenomena, second there is an 'in >prep' reference to some new work by van Ommen - I don't think this is >appropriate and should either be removed and put as a personal >communication. > >Having looked over the tropical trees section, I think that's fine. > >The fig A1 does need labelling though. > >Gavin > >On Tue, 2008-08-19 at 09:11, Phil Jones wrote: > > Mike, > > Peck didn't do the speleothem bit either. > > Cheers > > Phil > > > > Mike, > > Have your text in - just need to read the borehole section again. > > Noted your comment re the final Appendix figure. Will look at more > > when Tim back. > > Peck's bit is 2.5 and the terrestrial part of 2.6 - except for the > > borehole text. > > > > Next time I co-ordinate anything I'll get the GB cycling coach > > involved. We've just one our 7th gold medal on two wheels. Only > > one short of Phelps. > > > > Cheers > > Phil > > > > > > At 13:52 19/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote: > > > thanks Phil--which part is Peck's? I'd like to read it over > > > carefully, > > > > > > mike > > > > > > Phil Jones wrote: > > > > Mike, Gavin, > > > > On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of > > > > the annual CET record > > > > were omitted from the smoothed plot. Tim's away, but when he did > > > > this with > > > > them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The > > > > purpose of the piece > > > > was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same. > > > > It wasn't > > > > to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the > > > > red/blue lines, > > > > as they are crap anyway. > > > > The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in > > > > the IPCC > > > > diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully > > > > back in or > > > > dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes > > > > quite > > > > a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is > > > > that CET > > > > has been so warm the last 20 years or so. > > > > Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the > > > > summer is > > > > lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year. > > > > Warmth > > > > in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds > > > > when it comes to warming. > > > > > > > > Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been > > > > written > > > > by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I > > > > will > > > > mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff. > > > > > > > > Cheers > > > > Phil > > > > > > > > At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote: > > > > > Hi Phil, > > > > > > > > > > traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over. > > > > > only 2 substantial comments: > > > > > > > > > > 1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3 > > > > > (bottom of page 52/page 53), but the lack of acknowledgement > > > > > here in this key summary that we actually introduced the idea of > > > > > 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling. > > > > > the end of the first sentence: > > > > > e.g., Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002, Küttel et al., 2007), > > > > > should be changed to: > > > > > e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and González-Rouco, > > > > > 2002, Rutherford et al, 2003; Küttel et al., 2007), > > > > > > > > > > 2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the > > > > > description of smoothing in Appendix A Figure 1. It sounds like > > > > > the last 12 years were removed from the end of the series? If > > > > > so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past > > > > > decade that takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would > > > > > suggest one of two alternative approaches: > > > > > a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I > > > > > don't see any objective justification for doing that) or > > > > > b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how > > > > > the most recent values compare w/ the MWP peak. > > > > > > > > > > By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press > > > > > in GRL, I've attached. Please don't distribute or cite prior to > > > > > publication (which should be one or two weeks from now). > > > > > > > > > > thanks, > > > > > > > > > > mike > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Phil Jones wrote: > > > > > > Dear All, > > > > > > Here's the revised version of the paper, together with > > > > > > the responses to the reviewers. > > > > > > We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him > > > > > > by the beginning > > > > > > of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next > > > > > > Monday is a national > > > > > > holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look > > > > > > through your > > > > > > parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week > > > > > > or over the > > > > > > weekend? > > > > > > Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and > > > > > > let me know of > > > > > > any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I > > > > > > think just look > > > > > > wrong? > > > > > > I hope you'll think of this as an improvement. > > > > > > > > > > > > Cheers > > > > > > Phil > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > > > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > > > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > > > > > University of East Anglia > > > > > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > > > > > NR4 7TJ > > > > > > UK > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > > > > Michael E. Mann > > > > > Associate Professor > > > > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) > > > > > > > > > > Department of > > > > > Meteorology > > > > > Phone: (814) 863-4075 > > > > > 503 Walker > > > > > Building > > > > > FAX: (814) 865-3663 > > > > > The Pennsylvania State University > > > > > email: mann@psu.edu > > > > > University Park, PA 16802-5013 > > > > > > > > > > website: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm > > > > > "Dire Predictions" book site: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > > > University of East Anglia > > > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > > > NR4 7TJ > > > > > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > > Michael E. Mann > > > Associate Professor > > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) > > > > > > Department of > > > Meteorology > > > Phone: (814) 863-4075 > > > 503 Walker > > > Building > > > FAX: (814) 865-3663 > > > The Pennsylvania State University > > > email: mann@psu.edu > > > University Park, PA 16802-5013 > > > > > > website: > > > > > > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm > > > "Dire Predictions" book site: > > > > > > http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > University of East Anglia > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > NR4 7TJ > > > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ The information contained in this communication is for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed, and may contain information which is the subject of legal privilege and/or copyright. 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