cc: Anders Moberg , "Deliang Chen" date: Wed Jun 15 12:06:26 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: WP4 deliverables to: alex@gvc.gu.se Dear Alex et al, The reply from Adam indicates they are not going to do anything with the extremes in the model runs, so we have a free run here. I talked to Deliang on the phone this morning and we discussed possible pieces of work over the next few months. I tried to explain something to Deliang, but not very well, so I'm elaborating here. The extreme software runs at present through station data and is based on the 1961-90 base period. You will need to modify this a little to cope with the model have 12 thirty day months and only 360 days in a year. However, in order to show the model runs more clearly when comparing with observations, I think you will need to do some experimentation with 1 or 2 of the runs. There will eventually be 6 runs with natural forcing and 6 with natural plus anthropogenic forcing. I presume that these 6 can be paired, so that one natural run and one nat+anthro run start from the same initial conditions in 1869. If this is the case then the 1961-90 base period should be used from one of these runs and the extremes calculated (with the other pair using the same thresholds). Which of the pair to use to calculate the thresholds is a difficult choice. I would suggest you try the nat+anthro one first. This way the thresholds and counts should be more similar to the real world than the nat only one. We can then plot time series of differences between the pair of runs and see the anthro component more easily. If Anders can't understand this once I've sent it I will try and elaborate. Adam's point about the runs from 1949 makes some sense, but I would first see how long it is going to take you to push the model data through the adapted software. The long runs are more important. In order to avoid problems later, we should all look at the output of the first pair in a little detail to make sure all is OK, before moving on the the other members of the ensemble. Cheers Phil At 08:06 15/06/2005, Alexander Walther wrote: Hi Phil, Yes, applying the extremes routine on the model runs is included in our plans. I'm currently downloading the model runs. As soon as the data are "available" and readable for me, I will run the routine. I think this could be done within the next four weeks. I guess Deliang has promised anyway to present some results based on the GCM data. So let's keep in touch on this. I think there is a need for some discussion (E.g. area of interest to be extracted from the GCM, focus on certain indices etc.). I'm in contact with Anders anyway. I think we'll find a suitable Agenda. best regards westward Alex Phil Jones wrote: Dear Adam and Alex, Anders Moberg is in CRU this week and we are working on some of the WP4 deliverables. We are making good progress on D14 (observed changes in extremes since the late 19th century). We've been thinking about D15 and D16. Anders will email Jucundus, Paul and Alex about D15, but this is about D16 (assessment of the likelihood of any anthropogenic influence in extremes). The question to you, Adam, is the HC going to do any work on this deliverable (D16)? One possible aspect we can look at over the next few months is to compare the time series of the indices across Europe from the model runs. The question to Alex is, have you yet considered running the extremes software through the longer model integrations. I think it is only worthwhile to use the runs that begin in 1869 and run to 2001/2. From David Fereday's email of a week or so ago, roughly half of the runs are there now, 3 of 6 all forcings and 4 of 6 natural runs. I've cc'd David to check that natural runs include solar and volcanoes? Hopefully whilst Anders is here you can give a few minutes thought to what you might be doing on D16 over the next few months (up to the Paris meeting in October). Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- *************************** Alexander Walther Earth Sciences Centre Göteborg University Box 460 S-405 60 Göteborg, Sweden --------------------------- Fon: (+46)-31-7734849 Fax: (+46)-31-7731986 [1]http://www.gvc.gu.se/rcg *************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------