date: Tue Dec 9 12:58:41 2008 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Re: News release on 2008's climate] to: David Parker , "Stott, Peter" David, Peter, Have added a quote in - something I would have said! Can you send me the final version, when agreed at your end? I know we don't want to say this, but if reporters ask about the 1940s/1950s SST issue from the Thompson et al paper in May this year, we should say we are working on this and expect to submit a paper in the spring. I guess at most this will increase recent temps by a maximum of 0.05, but more likely 0.03deg C, but we won't mention a figure. Cheers Phil X-IronPort-AV: E=Sophos;i="4.33,740,1220227200"; d="doc'32?scan'32,208,32";a="573294" Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: News release on 2008's climate] From: David Parker To: "Jones, Phil" Cc: "Stott, Peter" Date: Tue, 09 Dec 2008 12:16:19 +0000 X-Mailer: Evolution 2.0.2 (2.0.2-35.0.4.el4_6.1) X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00 X-Bayes-Prob: 0.0001 (Score 0, tokens from: @@RPTN, f028) X-Spam-Score: 0.00 () [Hold at 5.00] SPF(none,0) X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from UEA:default,base:default) X-Canit-Stats-ID: 14168157 - b540006301e1 (trained as not-spam) X-Antispam-Training-Forget: [1]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=14168157&m=b540006301e1&c=f X-Antispam-Training-Nonspam: [2]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=14168157&m=b540006301e1&c=n X-Antispam-Training-Spam: [3]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=14168157&m=b540006301e1&c=s X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 139.222.131.185 Phil Thanks. We've decided to use 2000-2008 because that makes the later period a year longer. Here is the draft as it now stands: do you want a CRU quote in it? David On Tue, 2008-12-09 at 09:50 +0000, Phil Jones wrote: > > Peter, David, > I thought it would be from model runs with all and with just > natural forcing. > I just wanted to make sure you had the runs and the calculations to > back > up the statements. The numbers seem and sound right. > As for the decades, it is back to the old chestnut of when a decade > ends and a new one begins - and there wasn't a year 0! I wanted > a statement about the nineties versus the noughties, but I think > the decades end with the years ending in 0, so 2000 was the last > year of the 1990s. It is a pedantic point, so I'm happy to use > either, > as it won't make any difference. > > We just need the statement in to indicate that the present decade > is > warmer than the previous by the amount expected (0.16). > > I've just received the 'Avoiding dangerous climate change' doc that > Vicky > prepared for Poznan. > > That has in the following bit of text. > > Some commentators have suggested that global arming has stopped. This > is not the case. The evidence is clear - in the long term, global > temperatures are > rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise. > > Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer that the > last - > natural phenomena mean that some years will be much warmer and others > cooler. > The El Nino in 1998 gave rise to a record-breaking warm year and the > La Nina > in 2007 and 2008 led to temporary cooling. Despite this, 11 of the > last 13 years > are the warmest ever on record. > > We are saying this in slightly different words. > > We are still on for a Dec 15/16 release. I can get the UEA press > office on > this for the East Anglian region next week, with you doing the > nationals. > > Cheers > Phil > > > > At 15:56 08/12/2008, Peter Stott wrote: > > All, > > > > A slightly revised version following earlier comments. > > The Press Office will want to press-ify it - I imagine that could > > include quotes. > > > > Nikos has calculated from model runs with all vs models runs with > > natural how much warmer we are now relative to pre-industrial and > > comes > > to about 0.68C for last decade which taking the ongoing trends into > > account means approx 0.75C warmer at present than we would have > > been. > > The naturally forced model is pretty flat with some natural warming > > early in the 20th century but volcanic cooling later on. > > > > Don't we want to compare the noughties with the nineties (ie > > 1990-1999 > > vs 2000-2008) rather than 2001-2008 average versus the 1991-2000 > > average ? > > > > Peter > > > > On Fri, 2008-12-05 at 17:29 +0000, David Parker wrote: > > > Peter, Gareth > > > > > > Phil Jones has made comments below on attribution aspects of the > > draft > > > press release - maybe we can discuss revised wording on Monday or > > > Tuesday. My first attempt is attached. > > > > > > David > > > email message attachment, "Forwarded message - Re: News release on > > > 2008's climate" > > > On Fri, 2008-12-05 at 17:29 +0000, David Parker wrote: > > > > David, > > > > A few comments on the draft - having got back from > > Cambridge. > > > > > > > > First 2 paras OK. > > > > > > > > Para 3 - need to look at the longish sentence. The 0.75 deg C > > is > > > > the problem here. In CH 3 we said there was about this warming > > from > > > > 1907-2006 (and also with the last 5/6 years wrt 1850-99). > > Anyway > > > > the 0.75 implies all 20th century warming is down to us. So > > without > > > > anthropogenic forcing now we would be as cold as it was about > > 1920. > > > > > > > > Some of the warming is natural. What you need to compare is a > > > > model run with all forcing and one with only natural forcing. > > I reckon > > > > this difference would be nearer 0.5 to 0.6. > > > > > > > > I'd like you to emphasize the need to look at decadal-scale > > values - > > > > as Peter seems to have done in the Guardian. We do have short > > memories > > > > as Myles says > > > > > > > > [4]http://www.scenta.co.uk/nature/news/cit/1737645/-008-will-be- > > coolest-year-of-the-decade.htm > > > > > > > > Another way to do this is to look at the 2001-2008 average > > versus > > > > the 1991-2000 average. > > > > Maybe we did this last year - I've a short memory! > > > > > > > > Cheers > > > > Phil > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > At 17:45 04/12/2008, you wrote: > > > > >Phil > > > > > > > > > >Thanks. > > > > > > > > > >If December is cold, CET could be the lowest since 1991, but > > this may > > > > >not be certain as soon as Dec 16th. So I haven't included it. > > Likewise > > > > >annual precipitation may be unexceptional if December is dry. > > We have of > > > > >course included the UK in a large file we sent to WMO and it > > will get > > > > >into the BAMS review of 2008 and the Weather paper. But if you > > wish to > > > > >include a UK paragraph, feel free to make suggestions! > > > > > > > > > >There will be a separate 2009 prediction release in early > > January. > > > > > > > > > >Have a good time in Cambridge, > > > > > > > > > >David > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >On Thu, 2008-12-04 at 17:19 +0000, Phil Jones wrote: > > > > > > David, > > > > > > Thanks. I'll look at this tomorrow. In Cambridge > > tomorrow > > > > > > - with Rob/Philip, some sort of ACRE meeting. Will get > > comments > > > > > > back over the weekend. > > > > > > > > > > > > Are you planning the longer press release with more > > graphs and > > > > > > UK values? > > > > > > > > > > > > Also will there be the 2009 prediction press release > > early in > > > > > > the New Year? > > > > > > If there is I'll know not to say anything about that in > > mid December! > > > > > > > > > > > > Cheers > > > > > > Phil > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > At 17:02 04/12/2008, you wrote: > > > > > > >Phil, Cathy, Chris > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Here is a draft of our proposed press release on 2008's > > global climate - > > > > > > >inputs came mainly from Peter Stott and John Kennedy. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Comments welcome. It is due for release on Tuesday December > > 16th after > > > > > > >the WMO press release. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Thanks > > > > > > > > > > > > > >David > > > > > > >-- > > > > > > >David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road > > EXETER EX1 3PB UK > > > > > > >E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk > > > > > > >Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 > > http:www.metoffice.gov.uk > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > > > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > > > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > > > > > University of East Anglia > > > > > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > > > > > NR4 7TJ > > > > > > UK > > > > > > > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >-- > > > > >David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER > > EX1 3PB UK > > > > >E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk > > > > >Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 > > http:www.metoffice.gov.uk > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > > > University of East Anglia > > > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > > > NR4 7TJ > > > > UK > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > -- > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Dr. Peter Stott > > Head Climate Monitoring and Attribution > > Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK > > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613 Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615 > > Mobile: 07753880683 > > E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk [5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 http:www.metoffice.gov.uk Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------