date: Fri Jul 12 12:43:41 2002 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: your help to: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk X-ITHouse-Forward-Path: From: Ricardo Villalba To: Keith Briffa Subject: Re: your help Date: Sat, 13 Mar 1999 12:50:05 -0300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.5 Dear Keith, Attached to this e mail there are two files: norpat.doc (Word97), which is a plot of the new Temperature reconstructions from Northern Patagonia, and norpat.new (ASCII), which contains the raw reconstruction data as well as smoothed versions with 50-, 25- and 10-year splines. In the plot that I am sending you I chose the 25-year spline. This reconstructions was based on 17 chronologies and is limited to the past 1000 years. Although we have some records that cover the past 2000 years, we feel safer extending the reconstruction just for the past 1000 years. We used PCREG program (which I got from Ed) for developing the reconstructions. Tree-rings and a summer (December to February) regional temperature record (including Bariloche, Esquel and Collunco stations) were calibrated over the period 1903-1986 (84 years). The cumulative RSQ is 0.47 and the adjusted RSQ 0.42. This represent an improvement over the past reconstructions, which have lower RSQ and some outliers (2 for Alerce and 3 for Lenca) removed. We are trying to improve the replication of some of the chronologies to develop the final temperature reconstruction. However, I do not expect major changes in the final output in relation to the data attached to this e-mail. I will fax you a figure, which shows the temperature reconstruction in the context of glacier variations along Patagonia. There is a remarkable agreement between the cool 1500-1660 interval in the reconstruction and glacier advances across Patagonia. My best to Phil. Cheers, Ricardo -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa[2]/