date: Fri, 10 Jun 2005 17:20:10 -0400 from: Gabi Hegerl subject: Re: request for data for IPCC AR4 figures to: Tim Osborn Tim, I append the all forcings run with sensitivity 2.5, a mid-range aerosol forcing (-1.5 NH 30-90N mean), and a mid-range ocean heat uptake. Tom uses the old Mitchell et al97 direct aerosol forcing timeseries, contact us if you need to know more. He promised to send his volcano forcing. He also said he'd send the reconstruction (its actually 3, a short densely sampled one, and two longer less densely sampled ones stacked into one another). The errobars are for decadal data, if you want I can make you 30-yr errorbars (not magic but takes a bit). I also hope Tom remembers if he got the 90% or 95% errorbars stored! The paper sigh is just being reformatted for another journal, but no major changes. THe GRL paper is still an ok reference for the runs, although the best reference is the sensitivity estimate paper that is also being reformatted to another journal - I can send it to you as soon as we get there. Hope this helps, let me know what else is needed (sorry need to run now so no time for checkign) Gabi Tim Osborn wrote: > At 14:58 10/06/2005, you wrote: > >> Its actually my fault, I woke up this morning remembering that I >> STILL didn't send you these data. >> I think you need the new timeseries, and I'll let you know the >> anomalies. > > > Thanks. Have you heard anything back from the journal yet? > >> I also promised the >> simulation - all forcings. > > > What is the reference for this (presumably new) model run - is it the > same as your submitted paper describing the new reconstruction? > >> Is this afternoon ok? >> Totally ok to say you need it right now (I'd prefer >> to do something else first that needs to go out, but I can change plan) > > > Please don't change your plans! Just send it as soon as you have a > spare moment (I realise - having no spare moments of my own - that > this might mean never! but of course I don't really mean that!). > >> There is some difference in the volcanic forcing, but I THINK (TOM??) >> not in the others. >> Tom would need to send the new volcanic forcing (used for the >> megaensemble Tom). > > > Ok. I have the solar which sounds like it is unchanged. Tom will > hopefully send the revised volcanic. The figure also has a panel "all > other forcings", which I don't have for your simulations - hence that > would be good too. I don't mind adding them up if you have separate > time series for GHG, SO4, etc. > >> Promise will happen today, I am sorry for being slack on this (I bet >> you know the reason ;) > > > You haven't been slack at all - it's my responsibility to get the > figure done. > > Thanks for your help > > Tim > > > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html 1000 -0.0054 1001 -0.0084 1002 -0.0098 1003 -0.0645 1004 -0.0887 1005 -0.0644 1006 -0.0443 1007 -0.0476 1008 -0.0479 1009 -0.0347 1010 -0.0252 1011 -0.0200 1012 -0.0188 1013 -0.0197 1014 -0.0216 1015 -0.0243 1016 -0.0276 1017 -0.0313 1018 -0.0694 1019 -0.0890 1020 -0.0777 1021 -0.0679 1022 -0.0608 1023 -0.0580 1024 -0.1009 1025 -0.1203 1026 -0.1004 1027 -0.0844 1028 -0.0728 1029 -0.0673 1030 -0.0646 1031 -0.0635 1032 -0.0632 1033 -0.0637 1034 -0.0648 1035 -0.0659 1036 -0.0670 1037 -0.0682 1038 -0.0694 1039 -0.0707 1040 -0.0718 1041 -0.0722 1042 -0.0720 1043 -0.0714 1044 -0.0705 1045 -0.0694 1046 -0.0682 1047 -0.0669 1048 -0.0655 1049 -0.0640 1050 -0.0627 1051 -0.0616 1052 -0.0607 1053 -0.0599 1054 -0.0591 1055 -0.0584 1056 -0.0577 1057 -0.0571 1058 -0.0564 1059 -0.0558 1060 -0.0553 1061 -0.0549 1062 -0.0858 1063 -0.0997 1064 -0.0856 1065 -0.0742 1066 -0.0907 1067 -0.0980 1068 -0.0848 1069 -0.0745 1070 -0.0669 1071 -0.0622 1072 -0.0586 1073 -0.0556 1074 -0.0527 1075 -0.0500 1076 -0.0478 1077 -0.0464 1078 -0.0444 1079 -0.0421 1080 -0.0398 1081 -0.0376 1082 -0.0356 1083 -0.0519 1084 -0.0580 1085 -0.0476 1086 -0.0388 1087 -0.0317 1088 -0.0266 1089 -0.0218 1090 -0.0182 1091 -0.0365 1092 -0.0437 1093 -0.0322 1094 -0.0227 1095 -0.0154 1096 -0.0110 1097 -0.0081 1098 -0.0057 1099 -0.0036 1100 -0.0279 1101 -0.0365 1102 -0.0212 1103 -0.0091 1104 -0.0001 1105 0.0049 1106 0.0083 1107 0.0108 1108 0.0129 1109 0.0148 1110 0.0161 1111 0.0166 1112 0.0166 1113 0.0163 1114 0.0157 1115 0.0149 1116 -0.0076 1117 -0.0347 1118 -0.0369 1119 -0.0320 1120 -0.0248 1121 -0.0187 1122 -0.0138 1123 -0.0098 1124 -0.0065 1125 -0.0037 1126 -0.0013 1127 0.0008 1128 0.0027 1129 0.0045 1130 0.0067 1131 0.0101 1132 0.0142 1133 0.0187 1134 0.0235 1135 0.0285 1136 0.0338 1137 0.0397 1138 0.0465 1139 0.0528 1140 0.0579 1141 0.0605 1142 0.0617 1143 0.0621 1144 0.0618 1145 0.0610 1146 0.0598 1147 0.0583 1148 0.0565 1149 0.0545 1150 0.0521 1151 0.0493 1152 0.0462 1153 0.0428 1154 0.0391 1155 0.0354 1156 0.0314 1157 0.0273 1158 0.0232 1159 0.0189 1160 0.0154 1161 0.0139 1162 0.0135 1163 0.0138 1164 0.0147 1165 0.0159 1166 0.0180 1167 0.0211 1168 -0.0885 1169 -0.1378 1170 -0.0872 1171 -0.0466 1172 -0.0167 1173 -0.0022 1174 0.0058 1175 0.0109 1176 0.0145 1177 0.0170 1178 0.0181 1179 0.0184 1180 0.0186 1181 0.0188 1182 0.0188 1183 0.0187 1184 0.0179 1185 0.0162 1186 0.0149 1187 0.0138 1188 -0.0278 1189 -0.0473 1190 -0.0539 1191 -0.0498 1192 -0.0282 1193 -0.0143 1194 -0.0044 1195 0.0019 1196 -0.0292 1197 -0.0416 1198 -0.0223 1199 -0.0061 1200 0.0060 1201 0.0119 1202 0.0145 1203 0.0148 1204 0.0150 1205 0.0149 1206 -0.0067 1207 -0.0169 1208 -0.0084 1209 -0.0018 1210 0.0024 1211 0.0034 1212 0.0030 1213 0.0014 1214 -0.0014 1215 -0.0039 1216 -0.0062 1217 -0.0086 1218 -0.0111 1219 -0.0137 1220 -0.0157 1221 -0.0170 1222 -0.0183 1223 -0.0186 1224 -0.0183 1225 -0.0425 1226 -0.0528 1227 -0.0405 1228 -0.2691 1229 -0.3691 1230 -0.2581 1231 -0.1697 1232 -0.1079 1233 -0.0812 1234 -0.0670 1235 -0.0576 1236 -0.0507 1237 -0.0453 1238 -0.0410 1239 -0.0374 1240 -0.0344 1241 -0.0317 1242 -0.0292 1243 -0.0269 1244 -0.0248 1245 -0.0229 1246 -0.0210 1247 -0.0193 1248 -0.0176 1249 -0.0160 1250 -0.0149 1251 -0.0255 1252 -0.0307 1253 -0.0263 1254 -0.0231 1255 -0.0211 1256 -0.0208 1257 -0.0213 1258 -0.7395 1259 -1.1808 1260 -0.9350 1261 -0.6878 1262 -0.4842 1263 -0.3714 1264 -0.3014 1265 -0.2530 1266 -0.2175 1267 -0.2367 1268 -0.2364 1269 -0.2003 1270 -0.1725 1271 -0.1511 1272 -0.1377 1273 -0.1283 1274 -0.1212 1275 -0.1158 1276 -0.2556 1277 -0.3861 1278 -0.3647 1279 -0.3193 1280 -0.2720 1281 -0.2385 1282 -0.2144 1283 -0.1957 1284 -0.1802 1285 -0.1683 1286 -0.3874 1287 -0.5363 1288 -0.4623 1289 -0.3804 1290 -0.3095 1291 -0.2667 1292 -0.2379 1293 -0.2180 1294 -0.2034 1295 -0.1921 1296 -0.1826 1297 -0.1975 1298 -0.2022 1299 -0.1885 1300 -0.1771 1301 -0.1672 1302 -0.1600 1303 -0.1541 1304 -0.1488 1305 -0.1438 1306 -0.1391 1307 -0.1346 1308 -0.1302 1309 -0.1260 1310 -0.1221 1311 -0.1190 1312 -0.1163 1313 -0.1139 1314 -0.1118 1315 -0.1098 1316 -0.1080 1317 -0.1063 1318 -0.1048 1319 -0.1033 1320 -0.1023 1321 -0.1023 1322 -0.1030 1323 -0.1039 1324 -0.1048 1325 -0.1407 1326 -0.1576 1327 -0.1433 1328 -0.1322 1329 -0.1246 1330 -0.1210 1331 -0.1396 1332 -0.1459 1333 -0.1322 1334 -0.1208 1335 -0.1122 1336 -0.1057 1337 -0.1002 1338 -0.0949 1339 -0.0898 1340 -0.0849 1341 -0.0979 1342 -0.1021 1343 -0.0917 1344 -0.0823 1345 -0.3058 1346 -0.4490 1347 -0.3695 1348 -0.2866 1349 -0.2170 1350 -0.1769 1351 -0.1511 1352 -0.1326 1353 -0.1188 1354 -0.1080 1355 -0.0993 1356 -0.0923 1357 -0.0868 1358 -0.0831 1359 -0.0793 1360 -0.0754 1361 -0.0708 1362 -0.0658 1363 -0.0605 1364 -0.0557 1365 -0.0516 1366 -0.0474 1367 -0.0437 1368 -0.0392 1369 -0.0344 1370 -0.0304 1371 -0.0281 1372 -0.0269 1373 -0.0264 1374 -0.0264 1375 -0.0267 1376 -0.0463 1377 -0.0569 1378 -0.0506 1379 -0.0458 1380 -0.0427 1381 -0.0420 1382 -0.0717 1383 -0.0857 1384 -0.0736 1385 -0.0644 1386 -0.0581 1387 -0.0559 1388 -0.0555 1389 -0.0990 1390 -0.1194 1391 -0.1006 1392 -0.0850 1393 -0.0750 1394 -0.0720 1395 -0.0711 1396 -0.0711 1397 -0.0716 1398 -0.0725 1399 -0.0737 1400 -0.0749 1401 -0.0753 1402 -0.0749 1403 -0.0751 1404 -0.0755 1405 -0.0759 1406 -0.0765 1407 -0.0770 1408 -0.0776 1409 -0.0782 1410 -0.0783 1411 -0.0774 1412 -0.0772 1413 -0.0771 1414 -0.0772 1415 -0.0772 1416 -0.0773 1417 -0.0774 1418 -0.0776 1419 -0.0777 1420 -0.0775 1421 -0.0767 1422 -0.0769 1423 -0.0773 1424 -0.0780 1425 -0.0788 1426 -0.0797 1427 -0.0807 1428 -0.0817 1429 -0.0828 1430 -0.0842 1431 -0.0862 1432 -0.0885 1433 -0.0911 1434 -0.0939 1435 -0.0968 1436 -0.0998 1437 -0.1029 1438 -0.1062 1439 -0.1095 1440 -0.1125 1441 -0.1152 1442 -0.1717 1443 -0.1980 1444 -0.1760 1445 -0.1584 1446 -0.1459 1447 -0.1416 1448 -0.1415 1449 -0.1416 1450 -0.1415 1451 -0.1414 1452 -0.1419 1453 -0.3236 1454 -0.4920 1455 -0.4675 1456 -0.4123 1457 -0.3535 1458 -0.3121 1459 -0.2830 1460 -0.3580 1461 -0.3844 1462 -0.3268 1463 -0.2809 1464 -0.2468 1465 -0.2491 1466 -0.2460 1467 -0.2266 1468 -0.2112 1469 -0.2138 1470 -0.2125 1471 -0.2003 1472 -0.1906 1473 -0.1832 1474 -0.1784 1475 -0.1749 1476 -0.1721 1477 -0.1693 1478 -0.1661 1479 -0.1639 1480 -0.2170 1481 -0.2403 1482 -0.2440 1483 -0.2352 1484 -0.2055 1485 -0.1863 1486 -0.1730 1487 -0.1646 1488 -0.1594 1489 -0.1557 1490 -0.1526 1491 -0.1491 1492 -0.1448 1493 -0.1697 1494 -0.1793 1495 -0.1624 1496 -0.1466 1497 -0.1351 1498 -0.1279 1499 -0.1226 1500 -0.1184 1501 -0.1144 1502 -0.1102 1503 -0.1362 1504 -0.1469 1505 -0.1315 1506 -0.1189 1507 -0.1092 1508 -0.1036 1509 -0.0997 1510 -0.0964 1511 -0.0933 1512 -0.2074 1513 -0.2587 1514 -0.2063 1515 -0.1643 1516 -0.1342 1517 -0.1202 1518 -0.1132 1519 -0.1091 1520 -0.1065 1521 -0.1045 1522 -0.1028 1523 -0.1013 1524 -0.0999 1525 -0.1142 1526 -0.1201 1527 -0.1121 1528 -0.1056 1529 -0.1006 1530 -0.0971 1531 -0.0932 1532 -0.0900 1533 -0.0877 1534 -0.0862 1535 -0.0842 1536 -0.0822 1537 -0.0799 1538 -0.0775 1539 -0.0750 1540 -0.0726 1541 -0.0703 1542 -0.0682 1543 -0.0661 1544 -0.0641 1545 -0.0621 1546 -0.0602 1547 -0.0582 1548 -0.0566 1549 -0.0554 1550 -0.0539 1551 -0.0522 1552 -0.0504 1553 -0.0484 1554 -0.1061 1555 -0.1316 1556 -0.1043 1557 -0.0815 1558 -0.0645 1559 -0.0556 1560 -0.0501 1561 -0.0462 1562 -0.0696 1563 -0.0791 1564 -0.0649 1565 -0.0535 1566 -0.0449 1567 -0.0404 1568 -0.0384 1569 -0.0365 1570 -0.0347 1571 -0.0725 1572 -0.0888 1573 -0.0697 1574 -0.0548 1575 -0.0446 1576 -0.0391 1577 -0.0357 1578 -0.0337 1579 -0.0329 1580 -0.0465 1581 -0.0524 1582 -0.0460 1583 -0.0407 1584 -0.0373 1585 -0.0352 1586 -0.0542 1587 -0.3537 1588 -0.3543 1589 -0.2711 1590 -0.2182 1591 -0.1774 1592 -0.1433 1593 -0.1316 1594 -0.1501 1595 -0.1449 1596 -0.1326 1597 -0.1185 1598 -0.1062 1599 -0.0968 1600 -0.4064 1601 -0.6868 1602 -0.5638 1603 -0.4293 1604 -0.3181 1605 -0.2567 1606 -0.2191 1607 -0.1938 1608 -0.1764 1609 -0.1632 1610 -0.1528 1611 -0.1446 1612 -0.1383 1613 -0.1336 1614 -0.1296 1615 -0.1261 1616 -0.1231 1617 -0.1205 1618 -0.1183 1619 -0.1165 1620 -0.1275 1621 -0.1905 1622 -0.1850 1623 -0.1666 1624 -0.1498 1625 -0.1377 1626 -0.1308 1627 -0.1263 1628 -0.1227 1629 -0.1192 1630 -0.1172 1631 -0.1162 1632 -0.1154 1633 -0.1155 1634 -0.1153 1635 -0.1146 1636 -0.1148 1637 -0.1154 1638 -0.2233 1639 -0.2869 1640 -0.2720 1641 -0.4836 1642 -0.6308 1643 -0.5234 1644 -0.4024 1645 -0.3146 1646 -0.2653 1647 -0.2547 1648 -0.2313 1649 -0.2107 1650 -0.1956 1651 -0.1850 1652 -0.1776 1653 -0.1722 1654 -0.1683 1655 -0.1658 1656 -0.1638 1657 -0.1620 1658 -0.1606 1659 -0.1595 1660 -0.1587 1661 -0.1582 1662 -0.1586 1663 -0.1599 1664 -0.1609 1665 -0.1618 1666 -0.1627 1667 -0.1700 1668 -0.3882 1669 -0.3791 1670 -0.3082 1671 -0.2583 1672 -0.2260 1673 -0.2488 1674 -0.3553 1675 -0.3340 1676 -0.2968 1677 -0.2656 1678 -0.2464 1679 -0.2355 1680 -0.2402 1681 -0.3331 1682 -0.3229 1683 -0.2916 1684 -0.2658 1685 -0.2484 1686 -0.2385 1687 -0.2319 1688 -0.2277 1689 -0.2430 1690 -0.2478 1691 -0.2366 1692 -0.2272 1693 -0.2326 1694 -0.4196 1695 -0.4265 1696 -0.5141 1697 -0.4683 1698 -0.3953 1699 -0.3420 1700 -0.3036 1701 -0.2799 1702 -0.2631 1703 -0.2505 1704 -0.2408 1705 -0.2327 1706 -0.2251 1707 -0.2189 1708 -0.2136 1709 -0.2090 1710 -0.2046 1711 -0.2002 1712 -0.1962 1713 -0.1920 1714 -0.1874 1715 -0.1828 1716 -0.1780 1717 -0.1733 1718 -0.1686 1719 -0.1640 1720 -0.1593 1721 -0.1544 1722 -0.1499 1723 -0.1461 1724 -0.1416 1725 -0.1478 1726 -0.1478 1727 -0.1380 1728 -0.1291 1729 -0.1217 1730 -0.1170 1731 -0.1477 1732 -0.1600 1733 -0.1415 1734 -0.1264 1735 -0.1148 1736 -0.1081 1737 -0.1035 1738 -0.0998 1739 -0.1021 1740 -0.1882 1741 -0.1757 1742 -0.1434 1743 -0.1206 1744 -0.1059 1745 -0.0985 1746 -0.0933 1747 -0.0887 1748 -0.0855 1749 -0.0832 1750 -0.0810 1751 -0.0785 1752 -0.0759 1753 -0.0732 1754 -0.0704 1755 -0.0676 1756 -0.0653 1757 -0.0638 1758 -0.0616 1759 -0.0592 1760 -0.0570 1761 -0.0546 1762 -0.1106 1763 -0.1352 1764 -0.1068 1765 -0.0832 1766 -0.0658 1767 -0.0564 1768 -0.0498 1769 -0.0900 1770 -0.1053 1771 -0.0797 1772 -0.0572 1773 -0.0396 1774 -0.0284 1775 -0.0193 1776 -0.0106 1777 -0.0037 1778 0.0018 1779 0.0077 1780 0.0128 1781 0.0155 1782 0.0169 1783 0.0011 1784 -0.0845 1785 -0.0644 1786 -0.0342 1787 -0.0122 1788 -0.0003 1789 0.0050 1790 -0.0293 1791 -0.0290 1792 -0.0137 1793 -0.0020 1794 0.0081 1795 0.0153 1796 0.0209 1797 0.0241 1798 0.0252 1799 0.0253 1800 0.0247 1801 0.0238 1802 0.0225 1803 0.0210 1804 0.0191 1805 0.0171 1806 0.0155 1807 0.0144 1808 0.0126 1809 -0.1410 1810 -0.4491 1811 -0.3860 1812 -0.2857 1813 -0.2134 1814 -0.1664 1815 -0.3297 1816 -0.7065 1817 -0.6092 1818 -0.4630 1819 -0.3364 1820 -0.2579 1821 -0.2075 1822 -0.1706 1823 -0.1414 1824 -0.1184 1825 -0.0998 1826 -0.0840 1827 -0.0700 1828 -0.0569 1829 -0.0469 1830 -0.0805 1831 -0.1434 1832 -0.2657 1833 -0.2130 1834 -0.1494 1835 -0.2771 1836 -0.3586 1837 -0.2786 1838 -0.2018 1839 -0.1392 1840 -0.1257 1841 -0.1109 1842 -0.0806 1843 -0.0706 1844 -0.0783 1845 -0.0543 1846 -0.0323 1847 -0.0144 1848 -0.0014 1849 0.0079 1850 0.0153 1851 0.0213 1852 0.0268 1853 0.0323 1854 -0.0084 1855 -0.0159 1856 0.0070 1857 0.0244 1858 0.0376 1859 0.0460 1860 0.0515 1861 0.0326 1862 0.0154 1863 0.0237 1864 0.0363 1865 0.0477 1866 0.0563 1867 0.0438 1868 0.0409 1869 0.0555 1870 0.0668 1871 0.0759 1872 0.0824 1873 0.0872 1874 0.0914 1875 0.0945 1876 0.0979 1877 0.1009 1878 0.1031 1879 0.1059 1880 0.1081 1881 0.1062 1882 0.1080 1883 0.0938 1884 -0.1750 1885 -0.1728 1886 -0.0932 1887 -0.0253 1888 0.0228 1889 0.0497 1890 0.0689 1891 0.0831 1892 0.0937 1893 0.1026 1894 0.1107 1895 0.1170 1896 0.1222 1897 0.1271 1898 0.1322 1899 0.1368 1900 0.1422 1901 0.1483 1902 0.1540 1903 0.0940 1904 0.0914 1905 0.1187 1906 0.1429 1907 0.1470 1908 0.1425 1909 0.1620 1910 0.1795 1911 0.1936 1912 0.1691 1913 0.0091 1914 0.0540 1915 0.1199 1916 0.1567 1917 0.1813 1918 0.2045 1919 0.2217 1920 0.2351 1921 0.2458 1922 0.2551 1923 0.2631 1924 0.2469 1925 0.2373 1926 0.2553 1927 0.2711 1928 0.2851 1929 0.2971 1930 0.3072 1931 0.3169 1932 0.3270 1933 0.3363 1934 0.3448 1935 0.3521 1936 0.3588 1937 0.3598 1938 0.3590 1939 0.3651 1940 0.3731 1941 0.3802 1942 0.3865 1943 0.3711 1944 0.3652 1945 0.3758 1946 0.3841 1947 0.3912 1948 0.3945 1949 0.3957 1950 0.3972 1951 0.3967 1952 0.3849 1953 0.3914 1954 0.3986 1955 0.4038 1956 0.4076 1957 0.4117 1958 0.4157 1959 0.4193 1960 0.4167 1961 0.4068 1962 0.4054 1963 0.3931 1964 0.3433 1965 0.3077 1966 0.3147 1967 0.3390 1968 0.3385 1969 0.3169 1970 0.3453 1971 0.3864 1972 0.4180 1973 0.4331 1974 0.4388 1975 0.4152 1976 0.4381 1977 0.4821 1978 0.5187 1979 0.5433 1980 0.5751 1981 0.5993 1982 0.5528 1983 0.3952 1984 0.4441 1985 0.5260 1986 0.5756 1987 0.6154 1988 0.6612 1989 0.7037 1990 0.7357 1991 0.7296 1992 0.5345 1993 0.5596 1994 0.6365 1995 0.6964 1996 0.7457 1997 0.7917 1998 0.8404 1999 0.8869 2000 0.9286 2001 0.9635