cc: Kevin Trenberth , Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , "Philip D. Jones" , Benjamin Santer , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer date: Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:57:10 -0600 from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate to: Michael Mann

Mike, The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low climate sensitivity -- compensating errors. In my (perhaps too harsh) view, there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC. This is why I still use results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and forcing assumptions/uncertainties. Tom. +++++++++++++++++++ Michael Mann wrote: > thanks Tom, > > I've taken the liberty of attaching a figure that Gavin put together the > other day (its an update from a similar figure he prepared for an > earlier RealClimate post. see: > http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/05/moncktons-deliberate-manipulation/). > It is indeed worth a thousand words, and drives home Tom's point below. > We're planning on doing a post on this shortly, but would be nice to see > the Sep. HadCRU numbers first, > > mike > > On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote: > >> Dear all, >> >> At the risk of overload, here are some notes of mine on the recent >> lack of warming. I look at this in two ways. The first is to look at >> the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic trend >> relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second is to remove >> ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the observed data. >> >> Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The second >> method leaves a significant warming over the past decade. >> >> These sums complement Kevin's energy work. >> >> Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of >> warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I do not >> agree with this. >> >> Tom. >> >> +++++++++++++++++++++++ >> >> Kevin Trenberth wrote: >>> Hi all >>> Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We >>> are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past >>> two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. >>> The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it >>> smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was >>> about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. >>> This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was >>> canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing >>> weather). >>> Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: >>> tracking Earth's global energy. /Current Opinion in Environmental >>> Sustainability/, *1*, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [PDF] >>> >>> (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.) >>> The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the >>> moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published >>> in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even >>> more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is >>> inadequate. >>> That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC >>> are tracking PDO on a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with >>> ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the change in ENSO not real >>> PDO. It surely isn't decadal. The PDO is already reversing with the >>> switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for >>> first time since Sept 2007. see >>> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.ppt >>> Kevin >>> Michael Mann wrote: >>>> extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC. >>>> its particularly odd, since climate is usually Richard Black's beat >>>> at BBC (and he does a great job). from what I can tell, this guy was >>>> formerly a weather person at the Met Office. >>>> We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it >>>> might be appropriate for the Met Office to have a say about this, I >>>> might ask Richard Black what's up here? >>>> >>>> mike >>>> >>>> On Oct 12, 2009, at 2:32 AM, Stephen H Schneider wrote: >>>> >>>>> Hi all. Any of you want to explain decadal natural variability and >>>>> signal to noise and sampling errors to this new "IPCC Lead Author" >>>>> from the BBC? As we enter an El Nino year and as soon, as the >>>>> sunspots get over their temporary--presumed--vacation worth a few >>>>> tenths of a Watt per meter squared reduced forcing, there will >>>>> likely be another dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000. I heard >>>>> someone--Mike Schlesinger maybe??--was willing to bet alot of money >>>>> on it happening in next 5 years?? Meanwhile the past 10 years of >>>>> global mean temperature trend stasis still saw what, 9 of the >>>>> warmest in reconstructed 1000 year record and Greenland and the sea >>>>> ice of the North in big retreat?? Some of you observational folks >>>>> probably do need to straighten this out as my student suggests >>>>> below. Such "fun", Cheers, Steve >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Stephen H. Schneider >>>>> Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental >>>>> Studies, >>>>> Professor, Department of Biology and >>>>> Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment >>>>> Mailing address: >>>>> Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205 >>>>> 473 Via Ortega >>>>> Ph: 650 725 9978 >>>>> F: 650 725 4387 >>>>> Websites: climatechange.net >>>>> patientfromhell.org >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ----- Forwarded Message ----- >>>>> From: "Narasimha D. Rao" >>>> > >>>>> To: "Stephen H Schneider" > >>>>> Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2009 10:25:53 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific >>>>> Subject: BBC U-turn on climate >>>>> >>>>> Steve, >>>>> You may be aware of this already. Paul Hudson, BBC’s reporter on >>>>> climate change, on Friday wrote that there’s been no warming since >>>>> 1998, and that pacific oscillations will force cooling for the next >>>>> 20-30 years. It is not outrageously biased in presentation as are >>>>> other skeptics’ views. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm >>>>> http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100013173/the-bbcs-amazing-u-turn-on-climate-change/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> BBC has significant influence on public opinion outside the US. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Do you think this merits an op-ed response in the BBC from a scientist? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Narasimha >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------- >>>>> PhD Candidate, >>>>> Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER) >>>>> Stanford University >>>>> Tel: 415-812-7560 >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Michael E. Mann >>>> Professor >>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >>>> >>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu >>>> >>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >>>> >>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html >>>> >>>> "Dire Predictions" book site: >>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> -- >>> **************** >>> Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu >>> >>> Climate Analysis Section, >>> www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html >>> >>> NCAR >>> P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 >>> Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) >>> Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305 >> >> > > -- > Michael E. Mann > Professor > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) > > Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 > 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 > The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu > > University Park, PA 16802-5013 > > website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html > > "Dire Predictions" book site: > http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >