date: Tue Nov 2 08:42:36 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Further to your E-mail on IPCC/AR4 to: "Hiroki Kondo" Dear Hiroki, In a little more detail then: What we are after will be a box in the report of say 500-1000 words. It might include a diagram, but it doesn't have to. It should discuss trends of tropical cyclones in all basins and discuss trends. Some of the trends may be due to better reporting, for example, through satellites seeing more storms that miss land entirely. Some regions are better covered than others - maybe the Atlantic has the longest and best records, for example. Some text on what causes variations from year to year (e.g. due to ENSO), but also the latest views on whether some increases are due to human activities. If you want to co-ordinate the views of a number of people then this will be fine. It will be easier for us to deal with one person. The draft will get reviewed several stages as with all IPCC reports. We are at the first stage, so a review will be started from mid-Jan onwards by people we nominate, then by anybody next summer, then governments in early 2006. If a diagram is there we will need it updated with 2005 numbers later and maybe even with 2006 as publication will be in 2007. The author would become a Contributing Author in the final chapter, so be named. I also send a similar message yesterday to another Japanese colleague, Prof Takehiko Mikami of Tokyo Met. University (MIKAMI Takehiko ) and he said he will also think about who a good person in Japan will be. I have known Takehiko for a number of years. As for writing style - more scientific than the 20th century climate review, but readable to most scientists and containing references. The latter is vital as all statements expressed should be backed up by papers in the peer-review literature. Views have been made in the literature, particularly by US scientists in Miami, but we are trying to get the views/opinions of others around the world. Thanks for your time and efforts on the matter. Cheers Phil At 08:05 02/11/2004, you wrote: Dear Phil, As I consult with several colleagues including those from Japan Meteorological Agency, there seems to be experts and specialists in this field of research in Japan dealing with not only tropical cyclones in western North Pacific (called Typhoons in severe stage) but also other regions. In order to facilitate your request most appropriately, it would be grateful if you could further inform me your request in more detail (to what extent time scale of statistics shoud be considered, or do you wish to discuss the relation of tropical cyclone formation with climate variabilities or ENSO events, etc.), so that we could identify exactly fitted person or forcal point among our colleagues. Best regards, *********************************** Hiroki KONDO Senior Scientist Frontier Research Center for Global Change 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001 JAPAN TEL: +81-45-778-5583 FAX: +81-45-778-5496 E-mail: [1]hkondo@jamstec.go.jp ******************************** > Dear Hiroki, With Kevin Trenberth, I'm putting together the Atmospheric Observations Chapter of the next IPCC report (due in 2007). We are trying to find a Japanese scientist (or maybe a Chinese one) who could write a small box (say 500-100 words) about tropical storms (not just for East Asia, but other regions around the world) and whether the number is changing. I am aware of the high number that have affected Japan this year, so I was wondering if you know of someone in Japan, who writes on their changing number and often talks to the media. Any help with a contact name would be most appreciated. Best Regards Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [2]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------