date: Wed, 19 Nov 1997 16:41:12 -0800 from: hm_pitcher@ccmail.pnl.gov (Hugh M Pitcher) subject: scenarios meeting to: m.hulme@UEA.AC.UK Mike, The question put to me by Richard Moss is whether we have or could create an emissions scenario which approximates the forcing used in the three scenarios for the TGCIA. We certainly can do this, but I would have to be able to convert the forcing from Magicc to the carbon equivalent expression used in the attached table. Is there some simple way to do this, or do we again get lost in the issue of atmospheric lifetimes etc. I would appreciate any advice you have on how to make the computation. thanks!! cheers, hugh ______________________________ Forward Header __________________________________ Subject: scenarios meeting Author: rh_moss@pnl.gov (Richard Moss) at -SMTPLink Date: 11/18/97 6:08 PM Hugh: We've been able to arrange the meeting, and so Naki, Cynthia, and I will get together. Seems like too good an opportunity to waste. I would like to talk to you beforehand. As a prelude to this, I'm sending detailed information about the forcings used in each of the model runs selected by the TGCIA (courtesy of Maria Noguer at WG I TSU). The issue is what it indicates about providing socio-economic data from one of the new scenarios, to accompany the climate data. We would need to make sure that the forcings were approximately the same. We should talk about when it might be possible to determine this for the new scenarios. Of course the GHG and aerosol forcing is not exactly the same as IS92 a either, although it is pretty close. The problem with the socio-economic data for the latter is that not all of the variables requested by the impacts community are available. Hadley forcing info in a MS word file attached (because of tabular info). Others follow below: ----------- GFDL forcing (Haywood et al, 1997): 300-year model integrations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations only, increasing sulphate and increasing greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations. The integrations are performed form 1765 to 2065. the experiment uses estimates of past, present and future sulphate and equivalent CO2 concentration from IS92a (IPCC (1992)); these are identical to those used in the Hadley Model (HADCM2) hh see above. The direct radiative forcing of sulphate aerosol is simulated by increasing the surface albedo (similar to the Hadley model but with slightly different coefficients to calculate the increase in surface albedo) In the control integration the concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosol are held constant. DKRZ/MPI forcing (ECHAM3/LSG) The ECHAM3/LSG model uses the same greenhouse gas/sulphate aerosol forcing as the Hadley model (HADCM2). The simulation starts in 1880 and run to 2050 (sulphate experiments) and to 2085 (greenhouse gases only). Contrary to the HADCM2 simulation, the ECHAM3/LSG simulation uses a time-dependent aerosol pattern. To gain a better statistical representation, the aerosol experiment was carried out twice with a slight modification in the aerosol forcing field. -------------- I'll be at PNNL tomorrow morning to attend a benefits briefing and will try to look you up immediately after. Richard p.s. to Mike H -- please let me know what you think as well. begin 666 Hadley MT,\1X*&Q&N$`````````````````````.P`#`/[_"0`&```````````````! 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