cc: k.briffa@uea date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 12:19:43 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Tree-Rings (fwd) to: Mat Collins Dear Mat now the EU proposal is out of the way, I can get down to work! I've built a new NH reconstruction using the age-banded density series from all the regions, EXCEPT the NSIB region for which I use the Hugershoff-standardised series. The file is attached - should be same format as before. The statistics that you need are: 1881-1960 r(temp,recon) = 0.67 rmse = 0.1923 lag-1 autocorrelation of residuals = 0.44 These statistics are slightly different to the proper age-banded NH series (they are somewhat worse now that the Hugershoff series is used for NSIB). Still working on the manuscript. Cheers Tim Calibrated against observed Apr-Sep temperature over 1881-1960 averaged over all land grid boxes north of 20N NSIB series was replaced by the Hugershoff standardised version! Year Reconstructed temperature anomaly (degrees C wrt 1961-90) 1402 -0.320 1403 -0.375 1404 -0.316 1405 -0.335 1406 -0.275 1407 -0.221 1408 -0.330 1409 -0.251 1410 -0.216 1411 -0.218 1412 -0.278 1413 -0.223 1414 -0.387 1415 -0.375 1416 -0.306 1417 -0.208 1418 -0.223 1419 -0.313 1420 -0.334 1421 -0.380 1422 -0.420 1423 -0.341 1424 -0.271 1425 -0.139 1426 -0.419 1427 -0.295 1428 -0.358 1429 -0.362 1430 -0.319 1431 -0.210 1432 -0.244 1433 -0.194 1434 -0.188 1435 -0.360 1436 -0.452 1437 -0.160 1438 -0.320 1439 -0.236 1440 -0.396 1441 -0.213 1442 -0.180 1443 -0.166 1444 -0.377 1445 -0.210 1446 -0.359 1447 -0.384 1448 -0.355 1449 -0.388 1450 -0.216 1451 -0.243 1452 -0.292 1453 -0.558 1454 -0.322 1455 -0.346 1456 -0.248 1457 -0.253 1458 -0.397 1459 -0.402 1460 -0.309 1461 -0.319 1462 -0.373 1463 -0.350 1464 -0.187 1465 -0.247 1466 -0.334 1467 -0.315 1468 -0.282 1469 -0.272 1470 -0.311 1471 -0.191 1472 -0.214 1473 -0.121 1474 -0.397 1475 -0.402 1476 -0.240 1477 -0.190 1478 -0.022 1479 -0.210 1480 -0.501 1481 -0.533 1482 -0.361 1483 -0.506 1484 -0.400 1485 -0.267 1486 -0.257 1487 -0.420 1488 -0.249 1489 -0.290 1490 -0.553 1491 -0.260 1492 -0.155 1493 -0.283 1494 -0.373 1495 -0.546 1496 -0.364 1497 -0.325 1498 -0.341 1499 -0.253 1500 -0.157 1501 -0.433 1502 -0.303 1503 -0.047 1504 -0.068 1505 -0.423 1506 -0.313 1507 -0.513 1508 -0.222 1509 -0.357 1510 -0.309 1511 -0.297 1512 -0.194 1513 -0.256 1514 -0.531 1515 -0.361 1516 -0.496 1517 -0.242 1518 -0.262 1519 -0.233 1520 -0.160 1521 -0.427 1522 -0.357 1523 -0.582 1524 -0.413 1525 -0.204 1526 -0.310 1527 -0.312 1528 -0.289 1529 -0.385 1530 -0.379 1531 -0.503 1532 -0.332 1533 -0.578 1534 -0.255 1535 -0.450 1536 -0.470 1537 -0.286 1538 -0.516 1539 -0.418 1540 -0.533 1541 -0.410 1542 -0.575 1543 -0.392 1544 -0.324 1545 -0.369 1546 -0.337 1547 -0.140 1548 -0.439 1549 -0.407 1550 -0.027 1551 -0.124 1552 -0.099 1553 -0.257 1554 -0.287 1555 -0.105 1556 -0.162 1557 -0.401 1558 -0.217 1559 -0.493 1560 -0.287 1561 -0.146 1562 -0.221 1563 -0.277 1564 -0.372 1565 -0.151 1566 -0.254 1567 -0.317 1568 -0.381 1569 -0.415 1570 -0.426 1571 -0.417 1572 -0.612 1573 -0.288 1574 -0.424 1575 -0.273 1576 -0.558 1577 -0.475 1578 -0.462 1579 -0.464 1580 -0.451 1581 -0.363 1582 -0.302 1583 -0.314 1584 -0.251 1585 -0.518 1586 -0.349 1587 -0.543 1588 -0.455 1589 -0.434 1590 -0.332 1591 -0.325 1592 -0.339 1593 -0.229 1594 -0.545 1595 -0.388 1596 -0.384 1597 -0.389 1598 -0.091 1599 -0.043 1600 -0.280 1601 -0.999 1602 -0.256 1603 -0.319 1604 -0.509 1605 -0.311 1606 -0.599 1607 -0.449 1608 -0.759 1609 -0.598 1610 -0.666 1611 -0.440 1612 -0.674 1613 -0.327 1614 -0.475 1615 -0.459 1616 -0.542 1617 -0.264 1618 -0.400 1619 -0.459 1620 -0.391 1621 -0.512 1622 -0.661 1623 -0.482 1624 -0.404 1625 -0.455 1626 -0.528 1627 -0.525 1628 -0.574 1629 -0.585 1630 -0.302 1631 -0.373 1632 -0.166 1633 -0.271 1634 -0.381 1635 -0.175 1636 -0.142 1637 -0.219 1638 -0.333 1639 -0.319 1640 -0.331 1641 -1.049 1642 -0.899 1643 -0.963 1644 -0.579 1645 -0.456 1646 -0.487 1647 -0.418 1648 -0.247 1649 -0.479 1650 -0.211 1651 -0.240 1652 -0.487 1653 -0.238 1654 -0.294 1655 -0.364 1656 -0.327 1657 -0.320 1658 -0.363 1659 -0.142 1660 -0.207 1661 -0.185 1662 -0.389 1663 -0.417 1664 -0.310 1665 -0.453 1666 -0.857 1667 -0.857 1668 -0.821 1669 -0.776 1670 -0.860 1671 -0.428 1672 -0.405 1673 -0.635 1674 -0.660 1675 -0.794 1676 -0.538 1677 -0.722 1678 -0.766 1679 -0.765 1680 -0.648 1681 -0.355 1682 -0.534 1683 -0.408 1684 -0.329 1685 -0.632 1686 -0.148 1687 -0.469 1688 -0.343 1689 -0.218 1690 -0.232 1691 -0.208 1692 -0.500 1693 -0.255 1694 -0.318 1695 -0.914 1696 -0.761 1697 -0.674 1698 -0.990 1699 -0.981 1700 -0.589 1701 -0.820 1702 -0.480 1703 -0.365 1704 -0.389 1705 -0.495 1706 -0.286 1707 -0.216 1708 -0.457 1709 -0.432 1710 -0.255 1711 -0.356 1712 -0.308 1713 -0.264 1714 -0.384 1715 -0.268 1716 -0.376 1717 -0.323 1718 -0.255 1719 -0.197 1720 -0.107 1721 -0.417 1722 0.005 1723 -0.190 1724 -0.232 1725 -0.476 1726 -0.392 1727 -0.236 1728 -0.105 1729 -0.248 1730 -0.602 1731 -0.706 1732 -0.455 1733 -0.368 1734 -0.112 1735 -0.332 1736 -0.296 1737 -0.199 1738 -0.556 1739 -0.309 1740 -0.685 1741 -0.548 1742 -0.791 1743 -0.377 1744 -0.350 1745 -0.419 1746 -0.486 1747 -0.159 1748 -0.367 1749 -0.326 1750 -0.159 1751 -0.315 1752 -0.207 1753 -0.209 1754 -0.327 1755 -0.309 1756 -0.178 1757 -0.289 1758 -0.378 1759 -0.314 1760 -0.323 1761 -0.243 1762 -0.395 1763 -0.291 1764 -0.422 1765 -0.338 1766 -0.205 1767 -0.400 1768 -0.534 1769 -0.329 1770 -0.310 1771 -0.237 1772 -0.515 1773 -0.360 1774 -0.029 1775 -0.258 1776 -0.182 1777 -0.286 1778 -0.166 1779 -0.508 1780 -0.305 1781 -0.242 1782 -0.177 1783 -0.760 1784 -0.151 1785 -0.139 1786 -0.150 1787 -0.417 1788 -0.160 1789 -0.213 1790 -0.608 1791 -0.113 1792 -0.098 1793 0.002 1794 0.009 1795 -0.226 1796 0.031 1797 -0.545 1798 -0.039 1799 -0.211 1800 -0.245 1801 -0.352 1802 -0.085 1803 0.043 1804 0.071 1805 -0.050 1806 -0.266 1807 -0.044 1808 -0.211 1809 -0.426 1810 -0.585 1811 -0.366 1812 -0.432 1813 -0.499 1814 -0.445 1815 -0.598 1816 -0.822 1817 -0.846 1818 -0.644 1819 -0.663 1820 -0.271 1821 -0.349 1822 -0.141 1823 -0.194 1824 -0.245 1825 -0.226 1826 -0.103 1827 -0.249 1828 -0.003 1829 -0.065 1830 -0.151 1831 -0.022 1832 -0.591 1833 -0.623 1834 -0.133 1835 -0.627 1836 -0.748 1837 -0.722 1838 -0.347 1839 -0.240 1840 -0.131 1841 -0.060 1842 -0.311 1843 -0.421 1844 -0.069 1845 -0.398 1846 0.113 1847 -0.046 1848 -0.316 1849 -0.361 1850 -0.232 1851 -0.110 1852 -0.101 1853 -0.157 1854 -0.122 1855 -0.404 1856 -0.244 1857 -0.526 1858 -0.120 1859 -0.170 1860 -0.226 1861 -0.020 1862 -0.583 1863 -0.268 1864 -0.397 1865 -0.258 1866 -0.443 1867 -0.410 1868 -0.109 1869 -0.267 1870 -0.198 1871 -0.345 1872 -0.173 1873 -0.169 1874 -0.351 1875 -0.227 1876 -0.477 1877 -0.196 1878 0.122 1879 -0.153 1880 -0.340 1881 -0.162 1882 -0.199 1883 -0.178 1884 -0.725 1885 -0.529 1886 -0.462 1887 -0.270 1888 -0.264 1889 -0.134 1890 -0.332 1891 -0.330 1892 -0.127 1893 -0.287 1894 -0.136 1895 -0.141 1896 -0.220 1897 -0.009 1898 0.084 1899 -0.566 1900 -0.192 1901 -0.034 1902 -0.281 1903 -0.146 1904 -0.202 1905 -0.279 1906 -0.020 1907 -0.408 1908 -0.052 1909 -0.219 1910 -0.132 1911 -0.187 1912 -0.635 1913 -0.146 1914 -0.297 1915 -0.064 1916 -0.293 1917 -0.313 1918 -0.464 1919 -0.009 1920 -0.265 1921 -0.106 1922 -0.026 1923 -0.312 1924 -0.151 1925 -0.259 1926 -0.121 1927 -0.182 1928 -0.023 1929 -0.170 1930 0.091 1931 0.103 1932 0.071 1933 -0.072 1934 0.007 1935 -0.049 1936 -0.020 1937 0.054 1938 0.156 1939 -0.093 1940 0.107 1941 -0.215 1942 0.121 1943 0.040 1944 -0.088 1945 0.037 1946 -0.019 1947 -0.195 1948 -0.053 1949 -0.114 1950 -0.272 1951 -0.111 1952 -0.126 1953 0.146 1954 -0.231 1955 -0.135 1956 -0.320 1957 -0.193 1958 -0.305 1959 -0.231 1960 0.074 1961 -0.112 1962 -0.309 1963 -0.180 1964 -0.483 1965 -0.494 1966 -0.178 1967 -0.207 1968 -0.610 1969 -0.375 1970 -0.358 1971 -0.344 1972 -0.568 1973 -0.274 1974 -0.347 1975 -0.523 1976 -0.558 1977 -0.374 1978 -0.715 1979 -0.302 1980 -0.614 1981 -0.204 1982 -0.541 1983 -0.251 1984 -0.337 1985 -0.421 1986 -0.437 1987 -0.450 1988 -0.180 1989 -0.297 1990 -0.319 1991 -0.173 1992 -0.175 1993 -0.341 1994 -0.320 Dr Timothy J Osborn | phone: +44 1603 592089 Senior Research Associate | fax: +44 1603 507784 Climatic Research Unit | e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk School of Environmental Sciences | web-site: University of East Anglia __________| http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ Norwich NR4 7TJ | sunclock: UK | http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm