date: Tue, 11 Jan 2000 20:21:29 BST from: "Simon J Shackley" subject: comments on what is missing .... to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike - you asked for comments on what MAY be missing in the current plan. I am responding to your draft of 7th Jan. here are some off-the-cuff thougts. 1) Not much mention of RISK PERCEPTIONS - or of PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS [mentioned in brief). Risk could be another cross-cutting theme. 2) Are we in danger of being TOO UK focused? The CC agenda highly global, but we may be being a bit too parochial ...... Market opportunities are global .... How do we provide intelligence of such market developments? Perhaps by buying into Economist and other studies...... then translating the implications for CC - impacts and mitigation. Need some konwledge of global impacts - where, when, etc. - at least some sort of vulnerability assessment based on existing and on-going research. I suggest we try and develop global aspects more strongly - this will be a strong aspect of IC bid - we probably don't want to make this difference too stark. We need to make UNFCCC more central - though I still feel DETR would be unwilling for the Centre to become very pro-active here. Perhaps we can invite DETR to work on a programme with us? The way to do it could be through looking at decision-making in situations of uncertainty and risk at scales from local to global. Taking account of global political debates and developments. Have suggested a few ideas in my draft prog. 2 write up. 3) One of guiding principles should be concerned with COMMUNICATION both to public and private sectors. 4) Integration (section 2) could also mean 'decision-making under conditions of uncertainty' 5) (section 3) - NERC Thematic programme - how would applications be assessed? By whom? 6) Figure on page 3: Could do with a box on 'socio-economic change' between 'geographic scale' box and 'scenarios' box. line from 'natural variability' to scenarios a bit confusing. We need to discuss role of climate variability in the light of NERC's COAPEC programme ....... The figure doesn't mention GOVERNMENT anywhere - I think it should. - perhaps in geographic scales box. Also it should definitely mention UNFCCC as thing keeping the climate show on the road - again could be under geog. box. 7) We still havn't said anything about WHY the six programmes are selcted - what is the integrating philosphy beind it? It would be nice if we could relate each of the 6 programmes to the figure - i.e. as 'outputs' from the diagram. The list of integrating themes also needs to have some rationale, rather than being a list. Will chew over how we can integrate it all ...... Cheers, Simon