cc: "Quinn, Rachel" date: Tue, 25 Sep 2001 15:36:10 +0100 from: "Goulden, Marisa" subject: RS climate change meeting, comments on sessions 2 & 3 to: "'tsb1@econ.cam.ac.uk'" , "'tom.downing@eci.ox.ac.uk'" , "'djgriggs@meto.gov.uk'" , "'michael.grubb@ic.ac.uk'" , "'b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk'" , "'jthoughton@ipccwg1.demon.co.uk'" , "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" , "'jcrh@mssl.ucl.ac.uk'" , "'martin.parry@uea.ac.uk'" Dear all, Below are some comments on topics in session 2 (Emissions Scenarios), from Laurie Michaelis, and session 3 (impacts and adaptation), from David Warrilow (DEFRA). Please send any comments to me to pass on to the session co-ordinators. Many thanks Marisa - Comment from Laurie Michaelis (speaker on Emissions Scenarios in session 2): I would be very happy to accept your invitation to speak at this meeting. I do have some hesitations looking at the agenda, though. In the SRES and the TAR we tried, perhaps not very successfully, to move away from the idea that forecasts were desirable or possible. Regardless of whether the science permits forecasts of climate change based on specific emission trajectories, I believe that society is fundamentally unpredictable because it is a complex system full of positive feedback mechanisms. It is not clear to me whether you are setting up the meeting to be able to have a discussion along these lines. A second issue relates to the way we conceptualise society and the implications for mitigation options. It is true that the outline of the TAR WG3 report followed the thinking of the SAR, with its emphasis in WG2 on technical, economic and market potentials and in WG3 on macroeconomic responses. But Chapters 1 and 5 of the TAR, at least, questioned this framework, emphasising the role of social, cultural and institutional factors in shaping GHG emissions. These issues will hopefully be taken up more thoughtfully in the proposed Special Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development. I think it would help if the meeting provided opportunities for them to be raised. - Comments from Stakeholder: David Warrilow (DEFRA), on Session 3 on impacts and adaptation: Some more in depth discussion of the issues and challenges which are currently limiting the value of impacts assessments would be beneficial. These issues really cover how to undertake more realistic impacts assessments, including: 1. better representation of extremes and inclusion of these in assessments 2. assessments of thresholds 3. assessment of multiple and indirect impacts (and alongside other non-climatic stresses) 4. development of costings methodologies for valuation of (aggregate) impacts and adaptation options 5. improvement of tools, e.g. risk analysis, and communication of uncertainty (although this is covered in Session 7). This e-mail message has been scanned for viruses and spam by the e:)scan service.