date: Fri, 22 May 2009 17:01:55 +0100 from: "Lenton Timothy Prof \(ENV\)" subject: RE: Leverhulme tipping points to: "Jones Philip Prof \(ENV\)" Great, Phil, That is a chilling example! I agree that this is a better interval to study - it gives me a good case study example to pull out in the interview with the Leverhulme Trust. I will take your and Keith's names in vain in the presentation I give to Leverhulme putting you on the list of collaborators. Thanks, Tim -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 22 May 2009 15:02 To: Lenton Timothy Prof (ENV) Subject: Re: Leverhulme tipping points Tim, I thought it was only the skeptics who read Hubert Lamb's books! I say this as you can read much of what you want into what he said! We've never really looked at past climate change and disease. I'd expect that the climate component was relatively minor. I think that climate adds to a problem in the past, rather than initiating the issue. I'd be happy to be involved and Keith probably would as well. It would be better to look at some period that is more recent. The attached is one such event, but it is a case that probably won't have an analogy in the future. The book referred to in the paper 'Arctic Ireland' is http://www.amazon.co.uk/Arctic-Ireland-Extraordinary-Forgotten-1740-41/d p/1870132858 http://www.whiterowpress.com/arctic.htm well worth reading. I have a copy. More people died and more people left Ireland between 1740-43 than in the potato famine over a century later. The Shannon froze over and people couldn't be buried! In Ireland it is referred to as the forgotten famine - and it really has been forgotten! The year 1740 and the few years after would have been bad in England too. There had been many good years and the population rose dramatically as more survived with the good harvests. Then came 1740..... It was that cold! Cheers Phil At 09:45 22/05/2009, you wrote: >Dear Phil, > >Related to preparing to present the attached proposal for a research >programme (in a shortlist of 5 - please do not circulate further) I >have been looking for historical examples of links between climate >regime shifts and disease (also food production, conflict). This led me >to reading parts of Hubert Lamb's 'Climate, history and the modern >world', including some fascinating stuff about 'ergotism' or 'St Anthony's fire' >(p 199-200). > >Anyway, I was writing just to try and find out if you or anyone else in >CRU was still interested in or working on links between past climate >change and disease / food production / conflict / societal change? (I >know Nick Brooks is into it.) > >Also, if we get the proposal funded I would like to link to CRU on both >historical case studies and future vulnerability. So perhaps I could >have a quick chat with you about that sometime. > >Tim > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----