cc: p.jones@uea.ac.uk, c.goodess@uea.ac.uk, "Keith Briffa" date: Thu, 30 Apr 2009 08:02:13 +0100 (BST) from: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk subject: Re: [Fwd: Climate discussion on Friday] to: "Tim Osborn" Tim, Seems fine! Change Humidity to Relative Humidity. Also there is responding to the skeptic claims - as Andrew Dlugolecki has had to do. This can be media, journal papers etc. Why it hasn't warmed much over the last few years is one such thing. Solar Constant now is 1361 W/m*m! AR5 runs will go with whatever they have now, as it will take modelling centres 1-2 years to retune their models. Most have 1366-1370! Cheers Phil > Hi Phil, Keith and Clare, > > Clare and I discussed this and thought we could put together a short > statement to help set the scene for Friday's discussion. > > We can perhaps even circulate paper copies at the meeting on Friday > (Alistair didn't ask for a powerpoint presentation), or at least use > it ourselves when introducing our ideas about climate research in the > next decade. > > I've put together the attached document, drawing in some of Phil's > suggestions (datasets, drought, humidity decline, re-analysis) and > some ideas from Clare. > > What do you think? Too long? Wrong direction/emphasis? Omitting > anything major? > > Comments or tracked changes welcome! > > Tim > > At 13:33 28/04/2009, P.Jones@uea.ac.uk wrote: >> Tim, Clare, >> Not that keen on tipping points! >> >> The big questions in my mind are: >> >> - follow up from UKCP09 >> - keeping CRU datasets up to date (may not be new, but this keeps the >> CRU >> name in the forefront) >> - CRU datasets are used by many as there source of what is happening. >> We >> need to watch them as well. This involves some media and other >> responses >> to counter skeptics >> - adding PDSI to the list we monitor >> - explaining why there has been a dramatic decline in RH in the past 3 >>years (this is very, very new!) >> - improving the input data that enters Reanalyses (these will >> eventually be that good, that we will be monitoring extremes >> using Reanalyses within a 10-year timeframe) >> >> Amend and add. Probably needs a paleo one or two >> and some from our EPSRC/EU projects. >> >> I do think the skeptics are going to make a big effort in the >> coming year or two. Science may appear to be done and dusted, >> but there are still loads of skeptics out there. >> >> Can you prepare a couple of ppt, as I won't have time. >> >> >> Doesn't look as though there is an agenda coming from Bob, Trevor. >> >> Cheers >> Phil >> >>---------------------------- Original Message >> ---------------------------- >>Subject: Climate discussion on Friday >>From: "Alastair Grant" >>Date: Tue, April 28, 2009 12:41 pm >>To: "'Jordan Andy Prof \(ENV\)'" >> "'Andrew Watson'" >> "'Phil Jones'" >> t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >> "'M Hulme'" >> "'Turner Kerry Prof \(ENV\)'" >>-------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> >>As you know, we have a roundtable discussion about climate on Friday >>afternoon. Can I ask you to think in advance about what you see as the >> key >>research questions and unsolved problems that climate research will have >> to >>address over the next decade? Think about the issues that require >>integration across disciplines as well as the problems that are specific >> to >>your particular discipline. Don't confine yourself to the things that we >>currently do, and please do discuss these questions with colleagues >>beforehand. >> >> >> >>Andy (Watson) - it would be helpful if you could say a bit about the >>"tipping points" ideas as well as your other activities. >> >> >> >>Please come along ready to summarise your ideas in a couple of minutes - >> we >>aren't looking for research seminars, or presentations of past >> achievements, >>so there is no need to prepare powerpoint presentations. We're wanting >> to >>do a "foresight" exercise, to identify the next big questions and how we >> can >>contribute towards answering the big questions. There will be space >> for >>others to contribute their thoughts, but we did want to prompt your >> thinking >>in advance to make sure that we tap into the thoughts of key players from >>across the disciplines represented in ENV. >> >> >> >>I'm sending this out because Jacquie is away, but it comes from us both. >> If >>you have any questions, please give me a call. >> >> >> >>Alastair >> >>_________________________________________ >> >> >> >>Professor Alastair Grant >> >>Deputy Head of School >> >>School of Environmental Sciences >> >>University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK >> >>Phone +44 1603 592537 >> >> >> >> > Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences > University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > >