cc: Meric Srokosz , Philip Newton , Andy Parsons , sand@nerc.ac.uk date: Thu, 20 May 2004 12:40:08 +0100 from: Lowe J subject: RE: RAPID statement -round 2 to: 'Christine Gommenginger' , plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de, ewwo@bas.ac.uk, p.j.valdes@bris.ac.uk, r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk, marotzke@dkrz.de, mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk, haugan@gfi.uib.no, studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk, rwood@meto.gov.uk, sfbtett@meto.gov.uk, j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk, Lowe J , P.Challenor@soc.soton.ac.uk, a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk, Alex.Haxeltine@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, lkeigwin@whoi.edu, maria.noguer@defra.gsi.gov.uk One could add a sentence to the effect that we do have evidence of extremely abrupt climate shifts in the recent past - not as dramatic as in the film, but they did impact severely on the economy and welfare of the developed world, nevertheless - the Little Ice Age (15th to 18th centuries) being the most recent example. A second, more recent, example (addressed in recent publications in Science) is the 'Dust Bowl' drought in the USA, which could easily be repeated. Further back in time, there is all the evidence pointing to devastation of prehistoric cultures (AmerIndians) by sudden shifts in moisture supply. The statement also seems to invite a rider question from the reader: so what could be done about it ? Supposing RAPID or other initiatives were to come to the conclusion that something like the LIA (or worse) was imminent - i.e. within a human life-span. What, if anything, could be done about the situation, and how should the world (governments) respond ? I know that this is nothing to do with the RAPID remit, but we could add a statement to the effect that climate change, at some scale, is likely, since climate has never been stable for long periods, and that there is an onus on governments to plan ahead to meet 'what if' scenarios. It raises questions about the manner in which that could be achieved at the global level. John -----Original Message----- From: Christine Gommenginger [mailto:cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk] Sent: 20 May 2004 11:29 To: plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de; ewwo@bas.ac.uk; p.j.valdes@bris.ac.uk; r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk; marotzke@dkrz.de; mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk; haugan@gfi.uib.no; studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk; rwood@meto.gov.uk; sfbtett@meto.gov.uk; j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk; j.lowe@rhul.ac.uk; P.Challenor@soc.soton.ac.uk; a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk; Alex.Haxeltine@uea.ac.uk; k.briffa@uea.ac.uk; m.hulme@uea.ac.uk; lkeigwin@whoi.edu; maria.noguer@defra.gsi.gov.uk Cc: Meric Srokosz; Philip Newton; Andy Parsons; sand@nerc.ac.uk Subject: RAPID statement -round 2 Dear RAPID SC member, Given the anticipated interest in rapid climate change issues following next Friday's global release of the Day after Tomorrow Hollywood blockbuster movie, Meric and I have (with advice from our local communication officials) prepared a statement to post on the RAPID web site (see below). Our aim is to keep it brief - in fact it may already be too long. Please can you let me know asap of any absolute show-stoppers. My aim is to post it on our web page some time tomorrow (i.e. before the week-end). Many thanks, Christine The Day After Tomorrow - the latest Hollywood blockbuster movie by Roland Emmerich, maker of "Independence Day" - depicts an extreme rapid climate change event following the sudden shutdown of the North Atlantic overturning circulation due to global warming. Could this really happen? While the film is a classic action movie featuring hugely exaggerated events (total shutdown takes place over a few days rather than decades, tidal waves in New York flood the city and then turn into a massive ice block within hours), it does present some genuine scientific information about ocean circulation, ice core sampling and past climate shifts. The film has been broadly welcomed by scientists as a way to raise awareness about the importance of climate change issues. The UK is taking the lead in rapid climate change research. A £20 Million Rapid Climate Change programme (known as RAPID for short) is being funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The aim of RAPID is to determine the probability of rapid climate change and its likely impact. For the first time, a monitoring system is being set up to monitor changes in the North Atlantic overturning circulation (which is associated with but not quite the same as the Gulf Stream). The UK research vessel RRS Discovery has recently deployed an array of moorings across the N. Atlantic Ocean. Present understanding would suggest that rapid climate change over the next decade is a low probability event, but should it happen, its impact on Western European economy and society would be serious. Hence, we need to improve our knowledge of the processes involved and narrow the uncertainties on the prediction of potential future rapid climate change. That is exactly what the RAPID programme aims to do. _________________________________________________________ Dr Christine Gommenginger Laboratory for Satellite Oceanography (LSO) James Rennell Division for Ocean Circulation and Climate Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC) Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom Tel (direct): +44 (0)2380 596411 Fax: +44 (0)2380 596400 http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/ Assistant Science Co-ordinator for NERC RAPID Climate Change Programme http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/ _________________________________________________________