date: Mon, 5 Oct 2009 20:49:41 +0600 from: Rashit subject: Re[2]: Climate Audit to: Tom Melvin Dear Tom, attached are yad series. Unfortunately after rather long search I didn't find data for two trees: yad05 and yad11. According my records yad11 begin from 1950, i.e. very short series, yad05 was old (from about 1750-1800), however first approx. 100 rings were very narrow and didn't crossdated. Today I receive letter from some finnish journalist and understood why you ask for data. I have prepared short answer (see below). How do you and Keith think, is it appropriate to answer? ("urgent work" is true. I'm very busy now) ------------------------------ Dear Martti Backman, I was not informed about McIntyre’s new findings. Thank you for notification. But Keith Briffa asked me for some explanations because he is being criticized by somebody for his using of recent data and some anonymous asked me for raw data. Unfortunately, I’m full out with urgent work during nearest three weeks and can’t comment in details all the accusations (especially because writing in English is to hard for me, excuse). I had a look to McIntyre’s post and can superficially comment some sentence. >“A few days ago, I became aware that the long-sought Yamal measurement >data url had materialized at Briffa's website - after many years of >effort on my part and nearly 10 years after its original use in Briffa >(2000).“ Steve has an amnesia. I had sent him these data at February 2, 2004 on his demand. >“The following graphic (H and S Figure 6) shows the core count by year >for the 241 series selected into the H and S chronology: … Figure 2. >Series Counts in H and S Chronology 2002” (fig 6 from our paper) Replication is shown on the next figure in our paper (fig. 7). Fig. 6 – total number of dated subfossil samples (without living trees) – total number of dated samles was more than 241 at that time. Low number of used for reconstruction subfossil series is explained by standardization method. We selected the longest series. The same concerns to living trees. It is not much old living trees in this area (in contrast to Polar Urals), therefore we used only 17 (not 12). At that time we had close collaboration and I had sent to Keith Briffa these raw data. As to reliability of recent increase in tree growth – we have updated our data using many additional subfossil and living trees and using RCS-method. I.e. we used not only long series, therefore many (120) living trees have been used. Finally, we have almost the Briffa’s result. These results not published yet. I’m going to prepare paper at the end of this – beginning next year. Some preliminary data you can find in some kind of report in Russian http://vak.ed.gov.ru/common/img/uploaded/files/vak/announcements/biolog/2009/13-07/KHantemirovRM.pdf fig 2 – sample replication, fig 5 – temperature reconstruction (smoothed by three filters – 50-, 100- and 200-year) > Dear Dr. Rashit M. Hantemirov, > I am working as an investigative journalist for the Finnish Broadcasting > Company, Helsinki Finland. Just now I am preparing a TV-documentary about > climate chance. The very hot current topic of the climate theme today is > the Yamal chronology, collected and developed by you and your colleague, > Dr. Stepan G. Shiyatov. > As you sure know, Mr. Steve McIntyre in Toronto has paid critical attention > to the way, how professor Keith Briffa has used your raw data when > constructing his 2 000 year climate history . > As far as I understand, the question is not whether Briffa made "cherry > picking", in other words purposeful selecting with the trees. The real > question is, why he in general decided to use the Yamal data where the > amount of living trees (12 pieces) was very low for his use, even too low ? > When assesing his behaviour it would be essental to know, how much did he > have Yamal-data collected by you in his possession, in addition to that > part which he used for his chronology. > Could you please be kind enough to tell me, which part of your data did > you give to Dr Briffa in the year 2000, or later ? > Could it be possible for you to deliver (e-mail) the whole Yamal raw data > to me ? > With Kind Regards,, > Martti Backman > Journalist > Finnish Broadcasting Company, TV1 > Helsinki Âû ïèñàëè 5 ??????? 2009 ?., 15:43:22: > Rashit, > Thank you for the data and pictures. They will help considerably. > Keith is being criticised for how the trees used > in the recent end of the Yamal chronology were > selected from the larger quantities of trees available. > For the two JAH tree used we have the rest of the chronology (25 cores in all). > The 5 POR trees were selected from12 cores. > For the 5 YAD trees used there would appear to be > missing numbers. Do you have the other series which were left out? > Attached are correlation reports for the JAH and > POR sites. We need to be able to explain that the > selection was based on a few trees from each > site, tree were selected that clearly show the > common high-frequency tree growth signal, and the > longer series were selected to achieve a better > overlap with the sub-fossil series and also to > increase the preservation of low-frequency > variance when using the corridor standardisation. > We must show that the selection of trees was not > made to support global warming. The YAD data > shows an increase in tree growth and we need to > show that all the trees from which we could have > selected also show this increase. > Thanks > Tom > At 13:25 04/10/2009, you wrote: >>Dear Tom, >> >>files with living trees data attached, that I use to update Yamal >>chronology >>(these data have been used among many others in Esper et al. 2009: >>http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122374111/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0). >> >>First letters in ID means river (valley): >>TNL - Tanlova-yakha; >>HDT, M, X - Khadyta-yakha; >>POR - Porza-yakha; >>all others - Yadayakhodyyakha >>(you can see the map of this area in Holocene, 2002, V. 12, N 6 >>(ADVANCE-10k issue), fig 1, page 718). >> >>In Excel file - the same data but with age of rings (from >>central ring). >> >>As to photo - did you mean landscape photographs (old and recent)? >>Unfortunately no photos there are for Yamal. >>Stepan Shiyatov has published recently book with comparative photos >>in Polar Urals. >>Two examples from this book are attached. >>If you mean this kind of photographs I ask Stepan to find more >>impressive pictures. >> >>Best regards >> >>Rashit Hantemirov >> >>Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology >>8 Marta St., 202 >>Ekaterinburg, 620144 >>Russia >>Tel: +7(343) 260-64-94 >>Fax: +7(343) 260-65-00, 260-82-56 >>E-mail: rashit@ipae.uran.ru >> >> >>Âû ïèñàëè 3 îêòÿáðÿ 2009 ã., 19:00:44: >> >> > Rashit, >> >> > Keith is being criticised by Climate Audit for his selection of >> > recent (living) data in the Yamal chronology. We need to say how the >> > data was selected, showing the strength of common signal, the local >> > sites etc. I have the JAH and POR site data. Please could you send me >> > the YAD (presumably Yadayakhodyyakha River) ring width data. If there >> > are more recent living site data (those that you would allow us to >> > use) these might help to illustrate our discussion. >> >> > Also if there are before and after photographs illustrating the >> > growth increase/change these may be useful. >> >> > Keith is drafting a reply to the criticisms and we would want to >> > include you and Stepan in our reply. >> >> > Tom >> >> >> > Dr. Tom Melvin >> > Climatic Research Unit >> > University of East Anglia >> > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >> > Phone: +44-1603-593161 >> > Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >> >> >> >> Best regards Rashit Hantemirov Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology 8 Marta St., 202 Ekaterinburg, 620144 Russia Tel: +7(343) 260-64-94 Fax: +7(343) 260-65-00, 260-82-56 E-mail: rashit@ipae.uran.ru Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\YAD.RWL"