cc: p.jones@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 19 Mar 2007 20:53:21 -0000 (GMT) from: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk subject: Re: AW: QBO draft to: Brönnimann Stefan Hi Stefan, I read the paper again on the flight to Seoul, where I am now for 3 days. I have added my few comments to the paper, which I am attaching. I will be back in CRU on Friday. I though the Batavia data went back to 1866. I can check that when I'm back. I think I have the Dutch reference from the late 1930s/early 1940s that has all the hourly data in it. Semi-diurnal should get a hyphen everywhere. So once you get the comments from Kevin Hamilton I think you can submit it. Where did you plan to send it. It is shortish, so GRL is a possibilty, or if it is too long then JGR. I can see getting TSI before the 1950s is difficult. Cheers Phil > Hi Phil > > Thanks for your reply. Yes I have tried to look at the solar-QBO-polar > vortex stuff, but it is inconclusive prior to the early 1940s as > correlations are low (the 1942-1953 cycle fits excellent, but then the > earlier cycles do not). The problem also is the likely multidecadal > increase of solar irradiance prior to the 1950s. Depending on how you > define solar min and max (sunspots, TSI, etc.), you would get a different > result. If a TSI definition is used, most of the period is in the solar > min group, and then we simply expect to see the Holton-Tan effect. > > I have some ideas about the stationarity of the Holton Tan effect, but > this would require presenting - and explaining in detail - our upper-air > reconstructions. I thought that one reconstructed series is enough for the > paper and therefore chose to stick to available data (such as SLP) for the > analysis part. > > I also sent the draft to Kevin Hamilton for comments - he was to one who > suggested all of this historical QBO stuff. He did the most careful work > on this, but never got to stage of a reconstruction. So I am looking > forward to his comments. Geert-Jan does not want to be a co-author. > > Best regards > Stefan > > > -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- > Von: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > Gesendet: Donnerstag, 15. März 2007 15:10 > An: Brönnimann Stefan; oldenborgh@knmi.nl > Betreff: Re: QBO draft > > > Stefan, > Yes to being on the paper. I made some comments on the copy > I took to the US, but having got back I can't find them. > I will read again over the weekend and get some comments to > you by the middle of next week. > > I understand why the series only goes back to when it does. > > > Have you tried to look at the relationships given in a Labitzke and > van Loon > paper from a while ago (surface T in some locations related to TSI but > differing relationships for the E/W phase of the QBO. I thought we > could look at the best couple of these. I can get the surface T > together quite easily. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 13:10 09/03/2007, Brönnimann Stefan wrote: >>Hi Phil and Geert Jan >> >>Some time ago you sent me the Batavia SLP data, as I was interested in >>reconstructing the QBO. I was sceptical, but needed something to >> constrain >>our chemistry climate model prior to 1953 - even a perpetually repeatig >>cycle would have been better than nothing. >> >>Now, surprisingly, the reconstructions do not seem that bad after all. >>Comparisons with historcial total ozone data suggest that the >>reconstructions could actually be quite good - after around 1908. >> >>So, many thanks again for the data and description, they turned out to be >>useful for me. >> >>I have drafted a manuscript, which we could submit to GRL or somewhere >>else. Since you provided the data, I have tentatively included you as >>co-authors. Let me know what you think and whether or not you would like >>to be co-authors. >> >>Best regards, >>Stefan >> >> >> >> > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\QBO_08mar1.doc"