cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:51:34 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on exec bullets to: Bette Otto-Bliesner Hi Bette, thanks for your response to my bullet concerns. Concerning bullet 9, you put my questions to rest - I can see now that it is a bullet we can support well. Concerning bullet 5, your suggested rephrasing goes in the right direction. The additional global cooling due to vegetation feedback in HadCM3 (0.6 ºC) agrees well with that in our model (0.7 ºC). I agree that Kim et al. is an outlier that is hard to understand - it is always tricky how to deal with such outliers in an assessment like IPCC. In the spirit of your rephrasing, how about this version: * The Last Glacial Maximum featured reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, increased atmospheric aerosols, and altered land ice and vegetation. In a coordinated international multi-model experiment (PMIP-2), models simulate a change in global mean surface air temperature change between the Last Glacial Maximum and the current interglacial of 3.1 to 5.1C when considering greenhouse forcing and continental ice changes (radiative forcing change of -4 to 7 W m-2). The other factors (vegetation and aerosol changes) have not yet been considered in most models, but initial results suggest they could cause additional cooling of ~ 2 ºC. I agree with your split-off second part of the bullet. Cheers, Stefan -- To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06