date: 19 Aug 2008 13:07:32 -0400 from: Gavin Schmidt subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper to: Phil Jones Phil, here are some edits - mostly language, a couple of bits of logic, an attempt to soothe Mike on the borehole bit, and a paragraph for consideration in the Appendix. Two questions require a little thinking - the reference to 'regional freshening' on the coral section needs to be more specific - I doubt it is a global phenomena, second there is an 'in prep' reference to some new work by van Ommen - I don't think this is appropriate and should either be removed and put as a personal communication. Having looked over the tropical trees section, I think that's fine. The fig A1 does need labelling though. Gavin On Tue, 2008-08-19 at 09:11, Phil Jones wrote: > Mike, > Peck didn't do the speleothem bit either. > Cheers > Phil > > Mike, > Have your text in - just need to read the borehole section again. > Noted your comment re the final Appendix figure. Will look at more > when Tim back. > Peck's bit is 2.5 and the terrestrial part of 2.6 - except for the > borehole text. > > Next time I co-ordinate anything I'll get the GB cycling coach > involved. We've just one our 7th gold medal on two wheels. Only > one short of Phelps. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 13:52 19/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote: > > thanks Phil--which part is Peck's? I'd like to read it over > > carefully, > > > > mike > > > > Phil Jones wrote: > > > Mike, Gavin, > > > On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of > > > the annual CET record > > > were omitted from the smoothed plot. Tim's away, but when he did > > > this with > > > them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The > > > purpose of the piece > > > was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same. > > > It wasn't > > > to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the > > > red/blue lines, > > > as they are crap anyway. > > > The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in > > > the IPCC > > > diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully > > > back in or > > > dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes > > > quite > > > a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is > > > that CET > > > has been so warm the last 20 years or so. > > > Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the > > > summer is > > > lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year. > > > Warmth > > > in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds > > > when it comes to warming. > > > > > > Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been > > > written > > > by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I > > > will > > > mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff. > > > > > > Cheers > > > Phil > > > > > > At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote: > > > > Hi Phil, > > > > > > > > traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over. > > > > only 2 substantial comments: > > > > > > > > 1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3 > > > > (bottom of page 52/page 53), but the lack of acknowledgement > > > > here in this key summary that we actually introduced the idea of > > > > 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling. > > > > the end of the first sentence: > > > > e.g., Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002, Küttel et al., 2007), > > > > should be changed to: > > > > e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and González-Rouco, > > > > 2002, Rutherford et al, 2003; Küttel et al., 2007), > > > > > > > > 2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the > > > > description of smoothing in Appendix A Figure 1. It sounds like > > > > the last 12 years were removed from the end of the series? If > > > > so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past > > > > decade that takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would > > > > suggest one of two alternative approaches: > > > > a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I > > > > don't see any objective justification for doing that) or > > > > b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how > > > > the most recent values compare w/ the MWP peak. > > > > > > > > By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press > > > > in GRL, I've attached. Please don't distribute or cite prior to > > > > publication (which should be one or two weeks from now). > > > > > > > > thanks, > > > > > > > > mike > > > > > > > > > > > > Phil Jones wrote: > > > > > Dear All, > > > > > Here's the revised version of the paper, together with > > > > > the responses to the reviewers. > > > > > We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him > > > > > by the beginning > > > > > of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next > > > > > Monday is a national > > > > > holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look > > > > > through your > > > > > parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week > > > > > or over the > > > > > weekend? > > > > > Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and > > > > > let me know of > > > > > any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I > > > > > think just look > > > > > wrong? > > > > > I hope you'll think of this as an improvement. > > > > > > > > > > Cheers > > > > > Phil > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > > > > University of East Anglia > > > > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > > > > NR4 7TJ > > > > > UK > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > > > Michael E. Mann > > > > Associate Professor > > > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) > > > > > > > > Department of > > > > Meteorology > > > > Phone: (814) 863-4075 > > > > 503 Walker > > > > Building > > > > FAX: (814) 865-3663 > > > > The Pennsylvania State University > > > > email: mann@psu.edu > > > > University Park, PA 16802-5013 > > > > > > > > website: > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm > > > > "Dire Predictions" book site: > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > > University of East Anglia > > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > > NR4 7TJ > > > UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > Michael E. Mann > > Associate Professor > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) > > > > Department of > > Meteorology > > Phone: (814) 863-4075 > > 503 Walker > > Building > > FAX: (814) 865-3663 > > The Pennsylvania State University > > email: mann@psu.edu > > University Park, PA 16802-5013 > > > > website: > > > > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm > > "Dire Predictions" book site: > > > > http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\wengendraft_version_18Aug_GS.doc"