cc: tony.mcmichael@lshtm.ac.uk date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 15:53:30 +0000 from: Sari Kovats subject: infectious disease, climate change and grant proposal to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk >1. Yes, put me down as a named collaborator. We have a variety of >observed datasets that would probably be relevant and obviously the sort of >expertise you need in interpreting such data. Do you need anything from me >at this point? Dear Dr Hulme, Thanks very much for your positive response about our Wellcome proposal. Attached is the scientific outline of the preliminary proposal which has been submitted to the Wellcome - we hope to hear within a few weeks whether this fits their funding criteria. If so, we would very much appreciate your help with the full grant proposal. In Europe, the majority of infections are food or water-related. We are hoping to find some evidence of climate change in the seasonality of these diseases. Small shifts in the incidence of very common diseases have an important public health impact - although these do not receive much attention. The impact of climate change would be primarily due to warming/temperature trends. Precipitation mechanisms are more complicated - I will discuss these in a later email. The type of data used to produce the map of annual trends in the past century would be useful (Figure A-2 in the IPCC Regional Report). Thus, initial data requirements are as follows but we look forward to your advice. - monthly temperature and precipitation data series (possible weekly, if this is available) - time period 1982 to 1997 - geographic resolution at least subnational. 1x1 deg should be sufficient. - selected countries in Europe (e.g. UK, + one country in north/Scandinavia, one in souther, e.g. Spain, Greece, and one in central, e.g. Germany). I should also mention that Tony and I are also interested in related projects looking at vector borne disease patterns outside Europe. We would be interested in the historical data which you have for Africa, South America, and (South and East) Asia. I look forward to hearing from you. Best regards Sari Kovats ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sari Kovats Research Fellow Epidemiology Unit Department of Epidemiology & Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel St London WC1E 7HT UK Tel: +44 (0)171 927 2078 Fax: +44 (0)171 580 6897 email: s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\inf_W.doc"