date: Fri, 19 Oct 2007 16:53:46 +0100 (BST) from: David Lister subject: Re: Fwd: Re:Re:Re:Re: thank you to: Phil Jones Phil, I have got the annual anomaly series from the latest "all-China" monthly series that you sent. I have done a quick draft plot that shows distinct similarities - as we hoped. See hard-copy in your pigeon hole. Cheers David On Fri, 19 Oct 2007, Phil Jones wrote: > > David, > The attached is a China (country) average) for each month 1951-2004. > Can you reformat and do a plot comparing this with the average you > have from the rural and urban networks you were working with a few > weeks ago. > I hope this 'national' series will look much like the ones you have. > It looks as though this is in absolute deg C for each month, so make > into anomalies wrt 54-83 period you were using before. You could > also plot this one wrt 1961-90 against the CRU grid that I've also sent > you. > A plot for this new one and the CRU one for all 4 seasons plus the year > wrt 61-90 would also be useful. > > Cheers > Phil > >> X-ABS-CHECKED:1 >> X-SENDER:limmy@263.net >> X-SENDER-IP:192.168.191.103 >> X-LOGIN-NAME:wmsendmail >> X-ATTACHMENT-NUM:1 >> X-SENDER:limmy@263.net >> From: =?gb2312?B?JUQ1JUM1JUMwJUYyJUMzJUY0IA==?= >> To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk >> Cc: liqx@cma.gov.cn >> Subject: Re:Re:Re:Re: thank you >> Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2007 15:56:44 +0800 >> X-Mailer: XMail-3.0 >> X-UEA-Spam-Score: 2.4 >> X-UEA-Spam-Level: ++ >> X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO >> >> Dear Phil, >> Ok, I attached the series by this emil. Please find the txt file, which >> is the average value for each month. (I grided the station numbers into >> 2.5*2.5 grid boxes by First Differnce Method (Tom Peterson) then averged >> anomalies in the whole country. >> >> Best >> >> Qingxiang >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Phil Jones" < p.jones@uea.ac.uk > >> To: "%D5%C5%C0%F2%C3%F4" < limmy@263.net > >> Cc: < liqx@cma.gov.cn > >> Sent: 2007-10-18 18:50:13 +0800 >> Subject: Re:Re:Re: thank you >> Dear Qingxiang, >> Is it possible to send the numbers, as opposed to the plot? >> Since 1951 will be fine. >> >> Best Regards >> Phil >> >> >> At 03:51 17/10/2007, =?gb2312?B?JUQ1JUM1JUMwJUYyJUMzJUY0IA==?= wrote: >> >> >> >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: "Phil Jones" < p.jones@uea.ac.uk > >>> To: "%D5%C5%C0%F2%C3%F4" < limmy@263.net > >>> Cc: < liqx@cma.gov.cn > >>> Sent: 2007-10-12 17:20:58 +0800 >>> Subject: Re:Re: thank you >>> Dear Phil, >>> I have told you the difficulties of doing the monthly series during >>> 1910-2006 of average China surface air temperature at present in last >>> email, but I did the series since 1951(attachment). >>> I hope there will be helpful. >>> Best >>> Qingxiang Li >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Dear Qingxiang, >>> I have been away much of the last 3 weeks, >>> but I have managed to get >>> someone here to produce a few plots of the data you sent. I am >>> attaching 3 >>> of these plots. The first plot is a summary of the 'China' >>> average >>> we have produced from the data you sent (the two sets of 40-42 >>> stations). >>> We also used the data for the same stations we had in 1990. >>> So there are 4 series on the plot >>> >>> Data for 1954-1983 rural and urban sites as we had in 1990 >>> Data for 1951-2004 rural and urban site as you sent >>> >>> All are anomalies from 1954-83 - I need to change this to >>> 1961-90 >>> >>> The other two plots show the 'rural' and 'urban' separately >>> and >>> also plot your unadjusted as well as your adjusted sites. So >>> these >>> have 3 series on. There is also a line with the count of station >>> numbers. >>> >>> What this shows to me is. >>> >>> 1. As I expected - your homogeneity work (whilst good and useful) >>> doesn't >>> really change the average. It improves individual records, >>> but it tends to >>> cancel out when a number of stations are averaged. >>> >>> 2. There is a dramatic warming from mid-1980s - some of which may >>> be urban related? >>> >>> What I still need to do. >>> >>> 1. I will produce a series for SST for the S. and E. China sea from >>> HadSST2. This >>> will not have any 'urban' influence. >>> >>> 2. An average based on some rural stations in Mongolia and the very >>> east of Russia, >>> and any sites I can find in the north of Vietnam, Laos and Myanmmar >>> ( I'm not >>> very hopeful of finding any good sites in these three >>> countries). >>> >>> One other thing I would like from you. Can you send a 'China' >>> average? What >>> I need is an average for the whole of the period from say 1910 to >>> 2006. This would >>> be from your adjusted station dataset and would use many more >>> stations than >>> the 40-42 you have ( and exclude the obvious rural ones as in He et >>> al. 2004 >>> in Theor. Appl. Clim.). Is this possible as a monthly >>> series? >>> >>> I will also send a couple of powerpoint slides to show you >>> why >>> homogeneity adjustments average to approximately zero. >>> >>> Best Regards >>> Phil >>> >>> >>> >>> At 04:16 25/09/2007, =?gb2312?B?JUQ1JUM1JUMwJUYyJUMzJUY0IA==?= >>> wrote: >>> >>> >>>> Dear Phil, >>>> >>>> Again I find that the emails from my CMA mail boxes can not get to >>>> you. >>>> >>>> From attaches please find the data of 42 urban stations and 42 rural >>>> stations (by your list) and a reference of homogenization of the >>>> data. we >>>> have tested and adjusted the abrupt discontinuities of the data >>>> during >>>> 1951-2001, but the following years (2002-2004) has only been quality >>>> controled and added to the end of the series, but we found the >>>> relocation >>>> during these 3 years have minor effects on the whole series in most >>>> of >>>> the stations. >>>> >>>> I partly agree with what Prof. Ren said. and we have done some >>>> analysis on the urban heat island effect in China during past years. >>>> The >>>> results are differnt with Ren's. But I think different methods, data, >>>> and >>>> selection of the urban and rural stations would be the most important >>>> causes of this. So I think it is high time to give some new studies >>>> and >>>> graw some conclusion in this topic. I hope we can make some new >>>> achives on this both on global scale and in China. >>>> >>>> >>>> Best >>>> >>>> Qingxiang >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ----- Original Message ----- >>>> From: "Phil Jones" < p.jones@uea.ac.uk > >>>> To: "Rean Guoyoo" < guoyoo@yahoo.com > >>>> Cc: "%D5%C5%C0%F2%C3%F4" < limmy@263.net >, < >>>> liqx@cma.gov.cn > >>>> Sent: 2007-09-24 16:25:59 +0800 >>>> Subject: Re: thank you >>>> Dear Guoyu, >>>> I think I emailed you from America last week. I am >>>> away again next week, >>>> but here this week. >>>> >>>> I do think that understanding urban influences are >>>> important. I will >>>> wait for Dr Li Qingxiang to send some data, but there is no >>>> rush, as I am >>>> quite busy the next few weeks. >>>> >>>> Best Regards >>>> Phil >>>> >>>> At 00:59 20/09/2007, you wrote: >>>> >>>>> The following message was returned back when I sent via cma site. I >>>>> send it again via this site. I also forwarded this message to Dr, >>>>> Li >>>>> Qingxiang. >>>>> Regards, >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Guoyu >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Dear Phil, >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Thank you for your message of Sept 11, 2007. I have just been back >>>>> from the US. Sorry for the delayed response. >>>>> I noted the discussion on blog sites. This is indeed a big issue in >>>>> the studies of climate change. >>>>> In the past years, we did some analyses of the urban warming effect >>>>> on surface air temperature trends in China, and we found the effect >>>>> is >>>>> pretty big in the areas we analyzed. This is a little different >>>>> from the >>>>> result you obtained in 1990. I think there might be at least three >>>>> reasons for the difference: (1) the areas chosen in the analyses >>>>> are >>>>> different; (2) the time periods analyzed are obviously varied, and >>>>> the >>>>> aft-1990 period is seeing a more rapid warming in most areas of >>>>> China; >>>>> (3) the rural stations used for the analyses are different, and we >>>>> used >>>>> some stations which we think could be more representative for the >>>>> baseline change. >>>>> We have published a few of papers on this topic in Chinese. >>>>> Unfortunately, when we sent our comments to the IPCC AR4, they were >>>>> mostly rejected. >>>>> It is my opinion that we need to re-assess the urbanization effect >>>>> on >>>>> surface air temperature records for at least some regions of the >>>>> continents. I am glad that you are going to redo it using the >>>>> updated >>>>> dataset. I expect you to obtain the new outcome. >>>>> As for the dataset, I believe that Dr. Li Qingxiang could give you >>>>> a >>>>> hand. He and his group conducted a lot work of detection and >>>>> adjustment >>>>> of the inhomogeneities in the past years, and the adjusted and the >>>>> raw >>>>> datasets are all stored and managed in his center. The datasets we >>>>> used >>>>> are also from his center. >>>>> I'd be happy to discuss some issues with you late, but I would not >>>>> necessarily be as a co-author because my contribution would be >>>>> rather >>>>> minor. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Best regards, >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Guoyu >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> NCC, Beijing >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Shape Yahoo! in your own >>>>> image. >>>>> Join >>>>> our Network Research Panel today! >>>> >>>> Prof. Phil Jones >>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>> Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 >>>> 507784 >>>> University of East >>>> Anglia >>>> >>>> >>>> Norwich >>>> Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>>> NR4 7TJ >>>> >>>> UK >>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> =======================263ÌìÏÂÓÊ£ÂÐÅÀµÓÊ×Ôרҵ======================= >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> Prof. Phil Jones >>> Climatic Research Unit >>> Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 >>> 507784 >>> University of East >>> Anglia >>> >>> Norwich >>> Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>> NR4 7TJ >>> UK >>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> =======================263天下邮-信赖邮自专业======================= >> Prof. Phil Jones >> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >> University of East Anglia >> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >> NR4 7TJ >> UK >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> =======================263天下邮-信赖邮自专业======================= >> > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------