cc: t.m.melvin@uea.ac.uk
date: Fri, 14 Mar 2008 11:22:12 +0000
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Capturing long-term change using RCS
to: Chris Turney <C.S.M.Turney@exeter.ac.uk>

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Chris,

We have written a paper recently for the book being edited by Malcolm 
Hughes and Henry Diaz. Tom will forward a copy - though please treat 
this as confidential until the final version is agreed - thanks.  It 
is true that the RCS can be biased by recent data (and produce a 
somewhat undefined trend in the overall chronology when this is 
produced from only living trees).  Take a particular look at the 
first example of problem applications -  near the end of the article 
(the "Briffa Bodge" bit!).

How about looking at the data with the new RCS program we have?  The 
software is not quite ready for general use but it will not be 
long.  In the meantime Tom and I here could put your data through it 
to see what it looks like and you can have the software when he and I 
have agreed the final version of course.

Best wishes,
Keith and Tom.

At 17:37 12/03/2008, you wrote:
>Hi Keith
>
>No worries at all.  Must have used my gmail address. Thanks for 
>looking at this.
>
>With best wishes,
>
>Chris
>****************************************************
>Professor Chris Turney
>
>Author of 
><http://www.palgrave.com/PRODUCTS/title.aspx?PID=280639>Ice, Mud and 
>Blood: Lessons from Climates Past
>Popular science website:
><http://www.christurney.com>www.christurney.com
><http://www.interscience.wiley.com/journal/jqs>Journal of Quaternary 
>Science Asian and Australasian Regional Editor
>
>School of Geography, Archaeology and Earth Resources
>The University of Exeter
>Exeter
>Devon
>EX4 4RJ
>UK
>
>Times Higher University of the Year 2007-08
>
>Home page:
><http://www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml>www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml
>E-mail: <mailto:c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk>c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk
>Office Tel.: +44 (0)1392 263331
>Fax.: +44 (0)1392 263342
>
>****************************************************
>
>Slartibartfast:  Science has achieved some wonderful things of 
>course, but I'd far rather be happy than right any day
>Arthur Dent:  And are you?
>Slartibartfast:  No.  Thats where it all falls down of course.
>Arthur Dent:  Pity.  It sounded like quite a good lifestyle otherwise.
>
>The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams
>
>****************************************************
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>On 12 Mar 2008, at 16:10, Keith Briffa wrote:
>
>>Chris
>>have just found your email in my spam filter!! Will look at this 
>>and get back to you - sorry in rush to go to meeting
>>Keith
>>
>>At 17:37 05/03/2008, you wrote:
>>>Dear Keith,
>>>
>>>Sorry to bother you but I was wondering whether I could pick your 
>>>brain? I'm working with some friends in New Zealand, looking at 
>>>quantifying past temperature change using pink pine. We have a 
>>>robust dataset stretching back 550 years but using modern trees. 
>>>Using the RCS method we are concerned we are losing the long-term 
>>>temperature trend because of the bias introduced by the reliance 
>>>on modern trees.
>>>
>>>We wondering whether you have any idea how best to overcome this 
>>>issue? Any ideas would be fantastic. We've got a stunning dataset 
>>>but feel frustrated we're missing out on a significant part of the story.
>>>
>>>Look forward to hearing your thoughts.
>>>
>>>Best wishes,
>>>
>>>Chris
>>>****************************************************
>>>Professor Chris Turney
>>>
>>>Author of 
>>><<http://www.palgrave.com/PRODUCTS/title.aspx?PID=280639>http://www.palgrave.com/PRODUCTS/title.aspx?PID=280639>Ice, 
>>>Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past
>>>Popular science website:
>>><<http://www.christurney.com>http://www.christurney.com>www.christurney.com
>>><<http://www.interscience.wiley.com/journal/jqs>http://www.interscience.wiley.com/journal/jqs>Journal 
>>>of Quaternary Science Asian and Australasian Regional Editor
>>>
>>>School of Geography, Archaeology and Earth Resources
>>>The University of Exeter
>>>Exeter
>>>Devon
>>>EX4 4RJ
>>>UK
>>>
>>>Times Higher University of the Year 2007-08
>>>
>>>Home page:
>>><<http://www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml>http://www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml>www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml
>>>E-mail: 
>>><<mailto:c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk>mailto:c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk><mailto:c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk>c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk
>>>Office Tel.: +44 (0)1392 263331
>>>Fax.: +44 (0)1392 263342
>>>
>>>****************************************************
>>>
>>>Slartibartfast:  Science has achieved some wonderful things of 
>>>course, but I'd far rather be happy than right any day
>>>Arthur Dent:  And are you?
>>>Slartibartfast:  No.  Thats where it all falls down of course.
>>>Arthur Dent:  Pity.  It sounded like quite a good lifestyle otherwise.
>>>
>>>The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams
>>>
>>>****************************************************
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>--
>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>Climatic Research Unit
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>
>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>
>><http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 
>>

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 

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