cc: liqx@cma.gov.cn date: Wed, 17 Oct 2007 10:51:34 +0800 from: =?gb2312?B?JUQ1JUM1JUMwJUYyJUMzJUY0IA==?= subject: Re:Re:Re: thank you to: p.jones@uea.ac.uk ----- Original Message ----- From: "Phil Jones" < p.jones@uea.ac.uk > To: "%D5%C5%C0%F2%C3%F4" < limmy@263.net > Cc: < liqx@cma.gov.cn > Sent: 2007-10-12 17:20:58 +0800 Subject: Re:Re: thank you Dear Phil, I have told you the difficulties of doing the monthly series during 1910-2006 of average China surface air temperature at present in last email, but I did the series since 1951(attachment). I hope there will be helpful. Best Qingxiang Li Dear Qingxiang, I have been away much of the last 3 weeks, but I have managed to get someone here to produce a few plots of the data you sent. I am attaching 3 of these plots. The first plot is a summary of the 'China' average we have produced from the data you sent (the two sets of 40-42 stations). We also used the data for the same stations we had in 1990. So there are 4 series on the plot Data for 1954-1983 rural and urban sites as we had in 1990 Data for 1951-2004 rural and urban site as you sent All are anomalies from 1954-83 - I need to change this to 1961-90 The other two plots show the 'rural' and 'urban' separately and also plot your unadjusted as well as your adjusted sites. So these have 3 series on. There is also a line with the count of station numbers. What this shows to me is. 1. As I expected - your homogeneity work (whilst good and useful) doesn't really change the average. It improves individual records, but it tends to cancel out when a number of stations are averaged. 2. There is a dramatic warming from mid-1980s - some of which may be urban related? What I still need to do. 1. I will produce a series for SST for the S. and E. China sea from HadSST2. This will not have any 'urban' influence. 2. An average based on some rural stations in Mongolia and the very east of Russia, and any sites I can find in the north of Vietnam, Laos and Myanmmar ( I'm not very hopeful of finding any good sites in these three countries). One other thing I would like from you. Can you send a 'China' average? What I need is an average for the whole of the period from say 1910 to 2006. This would be from your adjusted station dataset and would use many more stations than the 40-42 you have ( and exclude the obvious rural ones as in He et al. 2004 in Theor. Appl. Clim.). Is this possible as a monthly series? I will also send a couple of powerpoint slides to show you why homogeneity adjustments average to approximately zero. Best Regards Phil At 04:16 25/09/2007, =?gb2312?B?JUQ1JUM1JUMwJUYyJUMzJUY0IA==?= wrote: Dear Phil, Again I find that the emails from my CMA mail boxes can not get to you. From attaches please find the data of 42 urban stations and 42 rural stations (by your list) and a reference of homogenization of the data. we have tested and adjusted the abrupt discontinuities of the data during 1951-2001, but the following years (2002-2004) has only been quality controled and added to the end of the series, but we found the relocation during these 3 years have minor effects on the whole series in most of the stations. I partly agree with what Prof. Ren said. and we have done some analysis on the urban heat island effect in China during past years. The results are differnt with Ren's. But I think different methods, data, and selection of the urban and rural stations would be the most important causes of this. So I think it is high time to give some new studies and graw some conclusion in this topic. I hope we can make some new achives on this both on global scale and in China. Best Qingxiang ----- Original Message ----- From: "Phil Jones" < p.jones@uea.ac.uk > To: "Rean Guoyoo" < guoyoo@yahoo.com > Cc: "%D5%C5%C0%F2%C3%F4" < limmy@263.net >, < liqx@cma.gov.cn > Sent: 2007-09-24 16:25:59 +0800 Subject: Re: thank you Dear Guoyu, I think I emailed you from America last week. I am away again next week, but here this week. I do think that understanding urban influences are important. I will wait for Dr Li Qingxiang to send some data, but there is no rush, as I am quite busy the next few weeks. Best Regards Phil At 00:59 20/09/2007, you wrote: The following message was returned back when I sent via cma site. I send it again via this site. I also forwarded this message to Dr, Li Qingxiang. Regards, Guoyu Dear Phil, Thank you for your message of Sept 11, 2007. I have just been back from the US. Sorry for the delayed response. I noted the discussion on blog sites. This is indeed a big issue in the studies of climate change. In the past years, we did some analyses of the urban warming effect on surface air temperature trends in China, and we found the effect is pretty big in the areas we analyzed. This is a little different from the result you obtained in 1990. I think there might be at least three reasons for the difference: (1) the areas chosen in the analyses are different; (2) the time periods analyzed are obviously varied, and the aft-1990 period is seeing a more rapid warming in most areas of China; (3) the rural stations used for the analyses are different, and we used some stations which we think could be more representative for the baseline change. We have published a few of papers on this topic in Chinese. Unfortunately, when we sent our comments to the IPCC AR4, they were mostly rejected. It is my opinion that we need to re-assess the urbanization effect on surface air temperature records for at least some regions of the continents. I am glad that you are going to redo it using the updated dataset. I expect you to obtain the new outcome. As for the dataset, I believe that Dr. Li Qingxiang could give you a hand. He and his group conducted a lot work of detection and adjustment of the inhomogeneities in the past years, and the adjusted and the raw datasets are all stored and managed in his center. The datasets we used are also from his center. I'd be happy to discuss some issues with you late, but I would not necessarily be as a co-author because my contribution would be rather minor. Best regards, Guoyu NCC, Beijing Shape Yahoo! in your own image. [1] Join our Network Research Panel today! Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- =======================263ÃìÃÃÃãÂÃÃõÃÃÃÃèõ======================= Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- =======================263天ä¸é®ï¼ä¿¡èµé®èªä¸ä¸======================= Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\monthly_series_China_1051-2004.doc"