cc: Thomas Stocker , Jerry Meehl , maureen.joseph@eci.ox.ac.uk, lindam@ucar.edu, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, peter.whetton@dar.csiro.au, giorgi@ictp.trieste.it, tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov, cubasch@dkrz.de, ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, hewitson@egs.uct.ac.za, "Stouffer, Ron" date: Wed, 23 Aug 2000 10:38:17 -0700 (PDT) from: Stephen H Schneider subject: Re: THC collapse to: Timothy Carter Tim, good footnote, it will lower the likelihood of confusion for those who have seen the literture on collapse and wonder how that is "exceptionally unlikely", not understanding the time frame and other parameter differences. thanks, steve On Wed, 23 Aug 2000, Timothy Carter wrote: > Dear Steve et al., > > Thanks to all of you for the comments received to date. I'll send out a > revised version of the Table to everyone next week - I know that a few > others will be able to comment before then. > > On the THC shutdown issue, please note that the Ch 9/WG I table does not, > to my knowledge, contain this phenomenon (or the WAIS collapse). However, > the discussion on THC has been useful as I think the WG I chapters and SPM > needed some headline clarification of this issue, especially as it is taken > forward into Chapter 19 of WG II. > > Table 3-9 in WG II does include THC "rapid shutdown" and WAIS > "disintegration" so, based on a couple of comments, I am suggesting the > following footnote (applying to both phenomena, which are each still > allocated "very low" likelihood up to 2100): > > * Refers to likelihood of occurrence during the 21st century only. However, > climate changes over that period may increase the likelihood during > subsequent centuries, though this is scenario-dependent. > > Best regards, > > Tim > > > ************************************************ > > Dr. Timothy Carter > Finnish Environment Institute > Box 140, Kesäkatu 6, FIN-00251 Helsinki, FINLAND > > Tel: +358-9-40300-315; GSM +358-40-740-5403 > Fax: +358-9-40300-390 > Email: tim.carter@vyh.fi > > ************************************************ > > ------ Stephen H. Schneider Dept. of Biological Sciences Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A. Tel: (650)725-9978 Fax: (650)725-4387 shs@leland.stanford.edu