date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 17:00:52 +0100 from: Keith Briffa subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Friends and authors ( especially Ricardo, Olga, Fortunat, David, Ramesh, Zhang, Dan, Eystein and Valerie) Now back from travels (until Wednesday when off to Austria for a few days) I thought it best to suggest a break down for the writing of the data section for the last 2000 years of the IPCC palaeoclimate chapter. Please see the outline produced at the meeting. We have 4 IPCC pages . I will write a short intro linking to the instrumental data with links to Chapters 3-5. I will coach this in a general introduction to this section that addresses the points listed in the initial notes ( namely how we use the various high , and few low, resolution data to construct regional and large-scale temperature variability , and where possible, gain insight into hydrologic variability. I will say we use models to get insight into methodology and to explore regional coverage and seasonality issues and we use control and forced model runs to look at sensitivity and detection issues , but also use date to test model variability and sensitivity . I can first go at the NH (SH) Spaghetti diagram discussion and hopefully you will pick up the regional aspects of the temperature and precipitation (moisture) variability . Rather than me say - I would like you to come back with the major areas you will cover , but these may best be done in terms of climatologically meaningful regions - ie relating to the ENSO, NAM, PDO , AAO, monsoon areas - then we could fill in the remaining regions if significant non overlap in areas is apparent (Eurasia, non-monsoon china etc) . We do not want a list of every paper ever written , but a selection of (the better) work that you feel has regional relevance (and some length presumably). THe other alternative is just to divide up the world to our own regions and then discuss the climate indices separately. This would likely be easier to do . Let me know what you think. Either way , we also should have a specific discussion of forcings at high resolution , and Fortunat, Valerie could cover solar and volcanic , perhaps Eystein discussing what evidence there is for THC change . The knotty issue of THC versus NAO and the link to model theories/models could go here - or perhaps later in the section 6.4.3.2 ? Davis what say you about this? The same is true of ENSO links to terrestrial precipitation patterns and temperature? I don't like the idea of dealing wit quasi periodicities separately , but rather wit the regional discussions eg North American drought. The question of LIA , MWP will come up in the large scale average discussion but you can also address it in the regional discussions , but in a critical and quantitative way. I would like to see the evidence for extremmes/abrupt change from the regional syntheses and then see if we have enough to define and discuss the issue separately. Olga could you pick up on the glacial variations (perhaps with links to models also?) So come back to me asap to let me know impressions and regional/variable focus you all wish to pick up. Ricardo will obviously do North South linkages as per the PEP1 transect , but what about along PEP2 and 3/ WE may have to pick this up in the light of the regional data. Can you also let me know if/who you might be asking to help with writing . Peck , I would still rather have Mike Mann in , so what is the story here - can I ask him? Suggestions for summary Figures still welcome - I would like to have a High lat , mid lat , low lat transect type figure for temperature , possibly along each PEP transect - with longest instrumental data . A forcing diagram is also a must - but could combine Holocene and "blow up " last 2000 years. Best wishes Keith -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06