date: Wed, 4 Jul 2007 17:50:22 +0100 from: "John Davies" subject: GLOBAL CLIMATE COMMENTS to: Dear Dr Phil Jones, You may find the enclosure easier to agree. I have changed it in such a way that it will gain wider agreement but still says most of what I wish to say. Though the first paragraph is unchanged you will probably agree with the explanation later on the article. All the Best, John B Davies personal. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE NEXT FIFTEEN YEARS. This is a brief summary of the climate situation facing the world in the medium term. Most climate scientists will agree in general terms with what follows. The long term future for global climate looks fairly bleak whatever happens to greenhouse gas emissions from now on. The world will almost certainly warm significantly according to the IPCC, and their forecast for the next half century is almost certainly realistic. However if humanity drastically reduces its greenhouse gas emissions then the warming can probably be contained at a level which will allow humanity to survive. The next fifteen years are very uncertain. The IPCC summary for policymakers published in early 2007 forecast that global temperatures will rise over the next two decades by 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. Between 1976 and 1997 global temperatures rose by about half a degree Celsius and have only risen slightly since. Most of the current media stories on climate concentrate on the effects the world is feeling from the warmer climate which began in 1997. Emissions of greenhouse gases and their concentration in the air have continued to increase over the last decade. The relative stability of global temperatures over the last decade has enormous ramifications for climate and humanity over the next fifteen years. There may be a negative feedback which will prevent global temperatures rising above the present level for the foreseeable future as the climate sceptics argue. The science from climatic research units, which is the best available science, and the IPCC, suggests that this is only an extremely remote possibility. The second more likely scenario is that global temperatures will start rising significantly again in the next year or two and reach a level where they would be expected to be by about 2016, with a two in three chance that global temperature will increase by more 0.2 degrees Celsius above the present global temperature to a level greater than say 0.63 degrees Celsius above the world average temperature for the 1961 - 90 period but only a one in three chance that they will exceed 0.73 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 level in 2016. This implies a rise in global temperature of greater than 0.20 degrees Celsius between 2007 and 2016, an enormous rate of increase. This second scenario is probably what most climatologists think is likely. The most likely global temperature in 2016 is centred on 0.67 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1961 - 90 global average or 0.76 degrees Celsius above the global temperature until 1976. In a nutshell there is a one in three chance that global temperatures will be held below 0.63 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 global average until 2016 which would be a reasonably good short term prospect, a one in three chance they will be between 0.63 and 0.73 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 level by 2016, implying a bleak difficult medium term future and a one in three chance global temperatures will be above 0.73 degrees Celsius by 2016 which will be extremely unpleasant and difficult to adapt too with very severe implications for the future. The above paragraph is very important. Almost everybody, excepting only the most unintelligent, can get an approximate idea of the climate probabilities facing the world until 2016 if they sit down and think hard about this paragraph. Hence almost everybody can know, if they were to read this paragraph and want to know, the climate future until 2016. It needs emphasising at this point that a very large volcano which puts dust into the Stratosphere will cool the earth for 2 or 3 years. This could occur shortly prior to 2016 and if this did happen would delay this rise in global temperature by two or three years. It is possible, though not likely, that the rise in temperature by 2016 could be large enough to cause catastrophic climatic changes which could lead into a runaway greenhouse event. The sort of thing which might happen is that this could cause the arctic sea ice to melt and the South West of the Amazonian rainforest to burn down. Either of these two events would be catastrophic for the global climate. In the event that the thin arctic sea ice melted in late summer then the water will absorb the sun's rays whilst at present the ice reflects them thus the Arctic Ocean will warm very significantly almost immediately. This will warm the land around the ocean, in Northern Russia and Alaska, the frozen peat bogs will defrost releasing vast amounts of methane and carbon dioxide thus leading to further warming especially of the oceans and the methane hydrates at the bottom of some of the oceans will be released leading to further warming. These events would cause the Amazonian rainforest to dry out and burn down with further positive feedbacks. Alternatively the South West of the Amazonian rainforest could burn down first adding huge amounts of carbon dioxide to the air and lead to further positive feedbacks in the north, and later the burning down of the remainder of the Amazonian rainforest. These latter two events are dependant on the size of the jump in global temperature and will probably not occur until the earth has become significantly warmer than it becomes after the initial jump in temperature. Should global temperature be about 0.67 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 90 global average but almost no warmer than this, which is the most likely possibility, then human life and the global ecology will be facing great strain and changes by this time. Some areas of the world will become drier; the Greenland ice sheet will be melting much faster, and the arctic sea ice retreating very rapidly. The negative changes will hugely outweigh the positive. There will be large negative economic consequences and almost certainly a global recession. However civilisation will not collapse and there will not be a large wipe out of humanity at this level of temperature increase. The main point to be borne in mind is that the world faces a high chance of very large climate changes in a very short space of time which we know about but of which we are nevertheless largely unaware. This is creeping up on us unawares because of the relative climate stability of the last ten years. Should this period of climate stability continue then the sceptics will publicise it and insist that global warming is a myth and many politicians and much of the public will believe them. Success for the sceptics will mean that no action will be taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions. This possibility can be minimised if the defenders of the global climate inform the world of the climate stability before the sceptics jump in and if climate campaigners accurately explain the dangerous future facing humanity and the world. It will be extremely difficult to make people aware of the danger we face if this climate stability goes on much longer. In military terms this situation represents a classic ambush. IT MUST SURELY BE OUR ABSOLUTE DUTY TO INFORM THE PUBLIC AND POLITICIANS OF THE GRAVE DANGER THAT CHANGES ARE PROBABLY ABOUT TO OCCUR WHICH WILL MAKE OUR LIFE ON THIS PLANET MUCH LESS PLEASANT AND MORE DIFFICULT THAN IT HAS BEEN UP UNTIL THE PRESENT. One important reason for this is that if we know the dangers we can adjust to these changes more quickly when they do happen and anyway we can still modify them slightly. There are other much more remote possibilities for the medium term future. There is about a ten per cent chance that global temperatures will increase slowly over the next twenty years, by less than 0.3 degrees Celsius between 2007 and 2027, even if humanity only cuts it's emissions slightly, and even a chance that temperatures will be rise by less than 0.3 degrees Celsius over the next 20 years if emissions of greenhouse gases rise rapidly. Best of all there is a very slight chance, a miniscule one, that if humanity reduced emissions immediately so as to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentration of the air at it's present level then global temperatures will stabilise at their present level. This is worth doing because at present we have a vibrant beautiful earth which gives many species as well as humanity the possibility of a very enjoyable life on this planet. However small the possibility is of retaining this situation we should surely do all in our power, whatever the hardships this involves, to maintain this idyllic situation. The purpose of this piece is in a very general way to illustrate what the future possibilities are for us over the next fifteen years or so. Should climate scientists agree that it is realistic then it will have a large political impact. The climatic and ecological impacts of these levels of temperature increase can be fleshed out by the climatic research units. The main point to note is that most of the effects of Global Warming will be very unpleasant and that is why greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced very substantially and almost immediately. Global Warming is going to make it progressively more difficult to feed everybody and Britain already has one of the highest densities of population on earth. Unless drastic action is taken on the climate problem mass starvation is probably going to occur in Britain. John B Davies. -- [1]Support Friends of the Earth These personal opinions do not necessarily reflect the policy of Friends of the Earth.