cc: , , "Katrina Brown" , "Frans Berkhout" date: Fri Oct 12 16:10:46 2001 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: Fw: Biofuel policies: opportunities and risks to: "Neil Adger" .... sounds an interesting issue, but I can't think where we have the expertise to contribute ........ maybe other can. It's an RT2 issue and an RT1 type question which MIAMI should (in 10 years time?) be able to address! Peter Billins from BIOGEN would have a strong view on this I am sure - he is Chair of the UK Biogen trade association. But hardly unbiased. Mike At 12:31 09/10/01 +0100, you wrote: Folks Is this a Tyndall opportunity to affect the OECD Agriculture and Environment Directorates on their biomas and sequestration policies? Do we have any mutual interest or expertise in this area? Could we do it to set the agenda on biofuels? Any thoughts appreciated. Neil ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, October 09, 2001 12:25 PM Subject: Biofuel policies: opportunities and risks > Neil, > > I am just starting a fishing expedition for consultant for a paper for an > OECD meeting next April. After learning - a bit late - that David Hall of > Kings College fame with numerous papers to his name on biomass has died, I > thought I would look at the CSERGE web site for other talents and was bit > intrigued by your interests and the work of Aeree Kim. > > We have a forecasting model for world agriculture with reasonable policy > content (called AGLINK) and we know from some Canadian use of this model > that world agricultural prices are at risk from potential OECD biofuel > programmes. We will probably run some scenario's for a paper next Spring > that looks 5 years ahead. > We in the in the Agricultural Directorate also service an annual meeting of > a "Group on Cereals, Animal Feeds and Sugar" which consists mainly of heads > of cereals departments of Ministries of Agriculture. We are thinking of > providing them with an information/discussion paper ( we have no clear ideas > about publication yet) around the theme of biofuel policies; opportunities > and risks. > > We have a fearful starting point, that suggests care is needed in bioenergy > policy making, in view of the risk from OECD agricultural subsidies > masquerading as energy security/climate change mitigation that could risk(i) > the agricultural reform process (ii) functioning of international > agricultural markets, and (iii) developing countries food bills and export > opportunities. Since some of the basic agricultural productivity of OECD > temperate crops (cereals for ethanol, oilseeds for biodiesel) is lower than > tropical crops (palm oil at 4/t ha compared with rapeseed at 1 tonne a ha.) > a WTO type level playing field for biomass seems a international priority. > We suspect this general area will be medium term activity here (in > co-operation with our ENV and IEA colleagues). While we recognise the > landuse/farm income opportunities for our immediate clients we have to > provide them with a bigger picture. Would you or do you know of anybody who > would be interested ? > > Paul. > > P.S. I am sure you have heard we pay peanuts