cc: acicero@gcd.com, agreene@uscib.org, aidan.j.murphy@si.shell.com, akemi.yoshida@mofa.go.jp, albert_b_knoll@sunoil.com, aleblanc@envifi.com, alistair.maclean@dfat.gov.au, alliance98@aol.com, amber@igc.org, amboham@aol.com, amboham@aol.com, Ameyer@ucsusa.org, a-michaelowa@hwwa.de, anda.kalvins@ontariopowergeneration.com, Andrew_Aulisi@environmentaldefense.org, anita.a.burke@si.shell.com, ann.condon@corporate.ge.com, annie@environmentaldefense.org, apkavanagh@aep.com, april.johnson@pss.boeing.com, arthur.g.randol@exxon.com, artur.runge-metzger@cec.eu.int, association@worldlpgas.com, avankrieken@pacia.org.au, bantholis@gmfus.org, barbara.jones1@halliburton.com, bayerj@corpdc.utc.com, bcaswell@ccpa.ca, bcmuller@hotmail.com, beat.nobs@buwal.admin.ch, bert.metz@rivm.nl, bhe@cefic.be, bill@jscinc.com, Bill_Antholis@gmfus.org, bje@cefic.be, blackbw@baxter.com, bo.kjellen@environment.ministry.se, bob.prolman@weyerhaeuser.com, bob_page@transalta.com, brenda.pulley@alcan.com, Brian.Hertzog@gen.pge.com, brian.p.flannery@exxon.com, bruno.vanderborght@hmc.ch, bryan_hannegan@energy.senate.gov, bstinson@merid.org, bulkinbj@bp.com, buwalda-mcdonnell@xtra.co.nz, caia@iafrica.com, callaga@texaco.com, carolyn_l_green@sunoil.com, carothl@corphq.utc.com, casamuel@mintz.com, catchpdv@bp.com, cbinkley@hnrg.com, cboone@cantor.com, cfschne@westvaco.com, chris.boyd@lafarge.com, chris.boyd@lafarge-groupe.lafarge.com, chris_miller@epw.senate.gov, christiana@csdanet.org, christiana@csdanet.org, christmas@iisi.be, christopher.langman@dfat.gov.au, ClaussenE@pewclimate.org, climatepolicy@ic.ac.uk, clockwood@aiam.org, cndavis@duke-energy.com, collinse@corpdc.utc.com, CWarburton@mhs51.tns.co.za, cwerner@eesi.org, cyndi.kohuska@nydinternational.com, dandb@dunlapbrowder.org, daniel.chartier@gen.pge.com, darmstrong@gcd.com, "David R Trerotola" , AddressListTooLong-Suppressed:; date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:11:27 -0500 from: "Tom Jacob" subject: COP 8 Report to: "Norman Bell" , "John C Deruyter" , "John R Foote" , "Ignac R Matocha" , "Peter P Schubert" , "Jose Carlos Siqueira" , "Michael Mocella" , "Nancie S Johnson" , "John A Dege" , "Mack McFarland" , "Patricia Shaw" , "Richard C Hill" , "John V Anderson" , "Kimberly A Iverson" , "Diane R Currie" , "Robert H Routliffe" , "Ricardo Antonio Ramirez" , "Mark M Montgomery" , "Antonio Cantu" , "Tim Kemp" , "Yolande Peeters" , "Jennifer Hooper" , "Mark S Baunchalk" , "Michael S Parr" , "Katia Leal" , "Leslie A Cormier" , "Craig M Heinrich" , "Peter Anstey" , "George F MacCormack" , "John B Carberry" , "Edwin L Mongan" , "A D Tony Jordan" , "Bernard J Reilly" , "William C Haaf" , "Eric A van_Wely" , "Patricia McGee" CLIMATE ADVOCACY TEAM: FYI... ---------------------- Forwarded by Tom Jacob/AE/DuPont on 10/29/2002 21:09 --------------------------- Tom Cortina on 10/29/2002 11:20:39 Please respond to Tom Cortina To: ICCP Total:; cc: Subject: COP 8 Report October 29, 2002 INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE PARTNERSHIP TO: ICCP FROM: Kevin Fay SUBJECT: COP 8 Report __________________________________________________________________ Attached and below is a status report from COP 8 by Kevin Fay. Mid-day, Tuesday, October 29, 2002 Preliminary meetings of the UNFCCC subsidiary bodies are expected to wrap-up today in advance of the COP 8 ministerial meeting which begins tomorrow. The meetings and discussions here have a strange resemblance to the recent US energy legislation conference?many flourishes of activity on highly detailed issues with large associated uncertainties over whether there will be a final product. The major question here is when Russia will ratify the Kyoto Protocol. While Russian officials continue to indicate that they intend to ratify, they also indicate that they continue to have significant questions. These questions range from science to policy. It currently appears that Russian ratification should not be expected before the fall of 2003. The Russians are hosting an international workshop or conference on the "questions and issues" relating to the Kyoto Protocol. The meeting will be held in September 2003 in Moscow. In a conversation with Yuri Israel, The Russian co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ICCP), he stated that it was highly unlikely that ratification would occur until after the Moscow meeting. Yuri Israel is a controversial figure, but he does have the ear of some politicians at home. He has been widely quoted here in the press over the last few days questioning the scientific basis of the Kyoto Protocol. These articles report Russian running "hot and cold" on the issue. Some have misunderstood his comments. He is not challenging climate change science, according to him he is merely pointing out that the protocol is a political agreement, and a first step, not a scientific agreement. It appears that the Russians are still trying to ascertain which action has a higher value, i.e., ratifying or not ratifying. Some additional clarifications from Russia on its process were expected in November. The recent hostage situation may delay that possibility. The attitude among other countries concerning the U.S. role appears to be one of acceptance of the U.S. position, which is not to be interpreted as approval. Press coverage of U.S. "non-engagement" is predictably negative. It now appears that Canada is likely to ratify the Protocol, even though their clean energy proposal has not fared well to date (it was even opposed by the U.S.) and is expected to fail. Entry into effect is possible only if Russia (or the U.S.) were to ratify. If Russian ratification delays until fall of 2003 (or later) then the treaty cannot enter into force until 2004. This would mean that the next Conference of Parties meeting (COP 9), which is rumored to be held in Italy in December 2004, would not be the first Meeting of the Parties (MOP) of the Kyoto Protocol. The uncertain status of ratification is affecting discussions on other issues. If difficulties arise on an issue, the temptation is to push the issue forward to the next subsidiary body meetings or the next COP. The SBSTA agenda includes several issues such as Canada's clean energy proposal, "good practices" under policies and measures, sinks, HFCs/PFCs, and Article 2.3 (minimizing adverse effects of policies and measures on developing countries). As of this morning, the only item on which a conclusion had been reached was HFCs/PFCs. The HFC decision to be recommended to the COP is generally considered acceptable by the concerned entities. The SBI was to consider issues concerning effective participation, both of non-parties and NGOs, and organizational details of the first Meeting of the Parties (MOP). The U.S. gave a strong intervention on the issue of effective participation, which immediately drew the wrath of SBI chair Raoul Estrada. The issue is not yet considered concluded. The contact groups on all these issues are still meeting. Both subsidiary bodies are scheduled to meet beginning at 3 p.m. this afternoon. It is highly possible that this will be delayed until later in the evening. When the COP begins tomorrow, the Ministers are expected to participate in three roundtable discussions over two days. The roundtable topics are "Taking Stock," "Climate Change and Sustainable Development," and "Wrap Up." In addition, they will have their ministerial statements and will then have to consider the recommendations flowing from the SBSTA and SBI meetings. The first draft of a "Delhi Declaration" has been circulated which makes no mention of the Kyoto Protocol but emphasizes the need for developed and developing countries to meet their commitments under the Framework Convention and the Berlin Mandate. It also raises the issue of the need for adaptation steps and the need for additional assistance for developing countries. Most observations of the first draft of the declaration have characterized it as unremarkable (current draft is attached). It does dance at the edge of several very controversial issues. Although industry attendance is considered to be light, it probably is appropriate with the anticipated level of activity and the likely decisions to come out of the meeting. Environment NGO participation also appears to be relatively light. The U.S. delegation is again heavily represented. The only congressional observers are Bryan Hannegan, Republican staff of Senate Energy Committee, and Floyd DesChamps staff to Senator John McCain (R-AZ). A final report will be provided at the conclusion of the meeting. COP 8 is scheduled to conclude on Friday, November 1. This communication is for use by the intended recipient and contains information that may be privileged, confidential or copyrighted under applicable law. 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