cc: "Helen Davies" date: Mon, 15 Nov 2004 09:29:04 +0000 from: "Christel Prudhomme" subject: Re: scenarios and scenario report to: Hi Tim don't worry, I knew you had been busy writting proposals, so I expected some delay in the report anyway! Good that you've got better results than Rob! I tried to retrieve your files, but our system has been down this week end, and at the moment it does not work properly - Maybe you could send me the CD, just in case the ftp is not usable for a little while? With Helen, we are working at the evap calculation at the moment - Have to play around with the different variables that are available from IPCC (each GCM has it own set of different variables), so it takes a bit longer than expected. But we should be getting there soon... Cheers Christel >>> Tim Osborn 11/12/04 05:23pm >>> Hi Christel, you're probably wondering what's happened to the SDSM scenarios and report! Well, we've had a few things to sort out (new Thrushel observations, a couple of other scenarios needed recreating). And I was expecting to reproduce Rob's results that he gave us for the Kennet - do you remember the ones that showed very different results for the 3 GCMs? Well, I couldn't reproduce them (except for HadCM3) but I haven't managed to find any reason why. Perhaps we used different predictors, or perhaps there is some error. Since my results show much better (but not perfect) agreement between the 3 GCMs, I have more confidence in them. So, I'm happy to go ahead and provide you with the scenarios. The files are big in total: >1 GB unzipped, 150 MB zipped. This is because we've generated them right out to 2099 and also for 20 realisations. I know you may only want to go to 2039 and also just use 1 realisation with your own resampling, but I needed the full set and it seemed better to just generate things once (avoid errors in doing it a second time). What's the easiest way to transfer the scenarios to you? I can put them on a CD and mail them. But I've also put them on our anonymous ftp site so you can download them. The details are: ftp.cru.uea.ac.uk login: ftp cd people/timosborn/ukwir binary get scenarios.zip On the report, I've now generated all graphics and part of the text. Will finish it next week. Cheers Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm