cc: geoff.levermore@umist.ac.uk,j.palutikof@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 11:20:45 +0000 from: Phil Jones subject: Tyndall Project IT1.8 to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk,n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk Dear Mike and Nigel, Geoff Levermore has just forwarded the letter about this project to the co-investigators. Your comments on this proposal seem particularly short sighted. The large CRU budget of £6000 for travel and subsistence was to help Ben Brabson come here (pay his flight and some of his accommodation) so he could work without pay (as he gets some money from Indiana). We will now not be able to use Ben, so we will not be able to do anywhere near as much work as envisaged. You would have got exceptional value, but that will not now be possible. The second comment is even worse. We are supposed to put more emphasis on future trends, keeping analysis of observed trends to a minimum. If I was a reviewer of any paper coming from this project I would ask what has been happening in reality and how well does HadCM3 simulate this. Also UMIST will be looking at solar radiation and vapour pressure in their simulation models. Can you tell me how well these variables are simulated - spatially and temporally ? If HadCM3 is not great for these variables and it models different extreme temperature changes to reality over recent decades, what confidence can we put on the future ? We can't just blindly take HadCM3 as a future scenario. We need some justification. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------