cc: Rajendra Pachauri , Tomihiro Taniguchi , John Houghton , Osvaldo Canziani <"mailto:ocanz"@ciudad.com.ar>, Bert Metz , Mohan Munasinghe , Michael Prather , Robert Scholes , John F B Mitchell , Thomas Stocker , Daniel L Albritton , Ulrich Cubasch , Stephen Schneider , Murari Lal , Zbigniew Kundzewicz , Barrie Pittock , Christopher Magadza , Habiba Gitay , "T. Barker" , "J.R. Moreira" , John Robinson , "I.A. Bashmakov" , "R.G. Richels" , "D. Zhou" , Ian Noble , Narasimhan Sundararaman , Renate Christ , David Griggs , Neil Leary , Rob Swart , Isabel Alegre , Dan Albritton , Tom Karl , Bob Scholes , Michael Prather , Joyce Penner , Thomas Stocker , Bryant McAvaney , Ulrich Cubasch , Bruce Hewitson , John Church , Jonathan Gregory , Francis Zwiers , Sir John Houghton , John Mitchell , Joanna Haigh , Dr M J Salinger , Fons Baede , Fons Baede , Chris Folland , Colin Prentice , Colin Prentice , V Ramaswamy , Jerry Meehl , Filippo Giorgi , David Karoly , Linda Mearns , Mike Hulme , Berrien Moore , Steve Schneider , QK Ahmad , Tim Carter , Nigel Arnell , Nigel Arnell , Liu Chunzhen , Habiba Gitay , Bill Easterling , Alla Tsyban , Alla Tsyban , Tom Wilbanks , Pier Vellinga , Tony McMichael , Chris Magadza , Paul Desanker , Murari Lal , Murari Lal , Hideo Harasawa , Barrie Pittock , Barrie Pittock , Zbigniew Kundzewicz , Martin Parry , Luis Mata , Luis Mata , Stewart Cohen , Oleg Anisimov , Graham Sem , Graham Sem , Barry Smit , Joel Smith , "D.H. Bouille" , "I.A. Bashmakov" , "J.A. Sathaye" , John Robinson , "J.C. Hourcade" , "K. Halsnaes" , "K. Halsnaes" , "L. Srivastava" , "R.A. Sedjo" , "T. Banuri" , "T. Barker" , "J.R. Moreira" , Rich Richels , "D.Zhou" , "A. Markandya" , "C.J. Jepma" , "C.J. Jepma" , "F.L. Toth" , "J.P. Weyant" , "M.J. Mwandosya" , "P.E. Kauppi" , "W.R. Moomaw" , "W.R. Moomaw" , "P.R. Shukla" , "T. Morita" , Lenny Berstein date: Sun, 24 Sep 2000 15:42:43 -0700 from: John Robinson subject: RE: Synthesis Report (SYR) - IPCC WGs input to: "'Rwatson@worldbank.org'" Dear Bob, Thanks very much for this, which I have finally gotten around to looking at. I think the idea of pulling together all the comments, organized by question, Working Group and chapter, is an excellent one, though I confess to only having looked so far over our own contributions. In that connection, I would like to note a small omission with respect to my own comments, sent in before the Capetown meeting. In my response to PRSQ#5, I noted: . . . the different baseline worlds have very different implications for climate impacts and for what is now being called adaptative capacity. There is a problem here, of course, since the impacts and adaptation community, because of the inevitable time lags involved in translating new emissions scenarios into climate scenarios, has only just started to internalize the new baselines. This means not only that the literature being reviewed by WGII is still often working off climate scenarios based on an earlier generation of emission scenarios, but also, and more importantly I think, that a crucial link is usually not made between emission scenarios and impact/adaptation scenarios. This link is to be found in the underlying socio-economic scenarios, which strongly affect both emissions and impacts/adaptation, and which can vary widely. In other words, the conclusion mentioned above concerning the importance of the choice of underlying socio-economic and technological development paths is also applicable, to a great degree, to impacts and adaptation policies. This is an area where much new work is needed. And here the WGII finding Stewart Cohen has commented on, that industrialized country impact work is increasingly focusing on future impact scenarios without much attention to ongoing sustainable development issues, while developing country work in this area is strongly focused on development issues, without much emphasis on future scenarios, is strongly suggestive. I just wanted to put this comment on the table, so to speak, since I think that the link between impact/adaptation analysis and the analysis of the driving forces of emissions (i.e. the underlying socio-economic and technological conditions that condition impacts, constrain adaptation, and give rise to emissions) is one that needs some discussion, if only to point out how little we can yet day about it. All the best, John John Robinson, Director Sustainable Development Research Institute University of British Columbia B5 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4 Canada 1.604.822.8198 (ph) 1.604.822.9191 (fax) email: johnr@sdri.ubc.ca website: www.sdri.ubc.ca -----Original Message----- From: Rwatson@worldbank.org [mailto:Rwatson@worldbank.org] Sent: Tuesday, September 19, 2000 8:16 AM To: Robert Watson; Rajendra Pachauri; Tomihiro Taniguchi; John Houghton; Osvaldo Canziani; Bert Metz; Mohan Munasinghe; Michael Prather; Robert Scholes; John F B Mitchell; Thomas Stocker; Daniel L Albritton; Ulrich Cubasch; Stephen Schneider; Murari Lal; Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Barrie Pittock; Christopher Magadza; Habiba Gitay; T. Barker; J.R. Moreira; J.B. Robinson; I.A. Bashmakov; R.G. Richels; D. Zhou; Ian Noble; Narasimhan Sundararaman; Renate Christ; David Griggs; Neil Leary; Rob Swart; Isabel Alegre; Dan Albritton; Tom Karl; Bob Scholes; Michael Prather; Joyce Penner; Thomas Stocker; Bryant McAvaney; Ulrich Cubasch; Bruce Hewitson; John Church; Jonathan Gregory; Francis Zwiers; Sir John Houghton; John Mitchell; Joanna Haigh; Dr M J Salinger; Fons Baede; Fons Baede; Chris Folland; Colin Prentice; Colin Prentice; V Ramaswamy; Jerry Meehl; Filippo Giorgi; David Karoly; Linda Mearns; Mike Hulme; Berrien Moore; Steve Schneider; QK Ahmad; Tim Carter; Nigel Arnell; Nigel Arnell; Liu Chunzhen; Habiba Gitay; Bill Easterling; Alla Tsyban; Alla Tsyban; Tom Wilbanks; Pier Vellinga; Tony McMichael; Chris Magadza; Paul Desanker; Murari Lal; Murari Lal; Hideo Harasawa; Barrie Pittock; Barrie Pittock; Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Martin Parry; Luis Mata; Luis Mata; Stewart Cohen; Oleg Anisimov; Graham Sem; Graham Sem; Barry Smit; Joel Smith; D.H. Bouille; I.A. Bashmakov; J.A. Sathaye; J.B. Robinson; J.C. Hourcade; K. Halsnaes; K. Halsnaes; L. Srivastava; R.A. Sedjo; T. Banuri; T. Barker; J.R. Moreira; Rich Richels; D.Zhou; A. Markandya; C.J. Jepma; C.J. Jepma; F.L. Toth; J.P. Weyant; M.J. Mwandosya; P.E. Kauppi; W.R. Moomaw; W.R. Moomaw; P.R. Shukla; T. Morita; Lenny Berstein Subject: Synthesis Report (SYR) - IPCC WGs input Thanks to the three IPCC Working Groups Extended Writing Teams, attached you will find a series of bullets (per question) as input for discussion at the first meeting of the core writing team. Attachments are as follows: inputs (compiled) provided by WGs I, II and III (124 pages); WG III Appendix (19 pages); Synthesis Report (SYR) Core Team table; and Expanded Writing Team list by Working Group Bob (See attached file: Synthesis report - WGs Inputs 09-18-00.doc)(See attached file: WG III Appendix to SYR WGs Inputs 09-18-00.doc) (See attached file: Core Team--Chair-Bureau-LAs-TSUs 09-18-00.doc) Synthesis Report - Expanded Writing Team as of September 19, 2000 WG I * Dan Albritton (SPM and TS) aldiroff@al.noaa.gov Tom Karl (Ch 2) tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov * Bob Scholes (Ch 3) bscholes@csir.co.za * Michael Prather (Ch 4) mprather@uci.edu Joyce Penner (Ch 5) penner@umich.edu Joanna Haigh (Ch 6) J.Haigh@Ic.Ac.Uk * Thomas Stocker (Ch 7) stocker@climate.unibe.ch Bryant McAvaney (Ch 8) B.MCAVANEY@bom.gov.au Ulrich Cubasch (Ch 9) cubasch@dkrz.de Bruce Hewitson (Ch 10) hewitson@egs.uct.ac.za John Church (Ch 11) (part of the time) john.church@marine.csiro.au Jonathan Gregory (Ch 11) (part of the time) jmgregory@meto.gov.uk Francis Zwiers (waiting for reply) (Ch 12) francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca Sir John Houghton jthoughton@ipcc.wg1.demon.co.uk * John Mitchell jfbmitchell@meto.gov.uk Dr M J Salinger J.Salinger@Niwa.Cri.Nz Fons Baede Baede@Knmi.Nl, Fons_Baede@Hotmail.Com Chris Folland Ckfolland@Meto.Gov.Uk Colin Prentice Cprentic@Bgc-Jena.Mpg.De, Colin@Planteco.Lu.Se V Ramaswamy Vr@Gfdl.Gov Jerry Meehl Meehl@Ncar.Ucar.Edu Filippo Giorgi Giorgi@Ictp.Trieste.It David Karoly Djk@Vortex.Shm.Monash.Edu.Au Linda Mearns Lindam@Ucar.Edu Mike Hulme M.Hulme@Uea.Ac.Uk Berrien Moore B.Moore@Unh.Edu WGII * Steve Schneider, US (ch 1) shs@leland.stanford.edu QK Ahmad, Bangladesh (ch 2) bup@citechco.net Tim Carter, UK (ch 3) tim.carter@vyh.fi Nigel Arnell, UK (ch 4) nwa1@soton.ac.uk, Arnell6@btinternet.com Liu Chunzhen, China (ch 4) liucz@mwr.gov.cn * Habiba Gitay, Australia (ch 5) gitay@rsbs.anu.edu.au Bill Easterling, US (ch 5) easter@gis.psu.edu Alla Tsyban, Russia (ch 6) tsyban@cityline.ru, monoc@cityline.ru Tom Wilbanks, US (ch 7) twz@ornl.gov Pier Vellinga, Neth (ch 8) pier.vellinga@ivm.vu.nl Tony McMichael, UK (ch 9) t.mcmichael@lshtm.ac.uk * Chris Magadza, Zimbabwe (ch 10) Profmagadza@Utande.Co.Zw Paul Desanker, Malawi (ch 10) desanker@virginia.edu * Murari Lal, India (ch 11) mlal@cas.iitd.ernet.in, lal321@hotmail.com Hideo Harasawa, Japan (ch 11) harasawa@nies.go.jp * Barrie Pittock, Australia (ch 12, 3, and 19) barrie.pittock@dar.csiro.au Martin.Beniston@unifr.ch * Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Poland (ch 13) zkundze@man.poznan.pl Martin Parry, UK (ch 13) martin.parry@uea.ac.uk Luis Mata, Venezuela (ch 14) lmata@t-online.de, l.mata@uni-bonn.de Stewart Cohen, Canada (ch 15) scohen@sdri.ubc.ca Oleg Anisimov, Russia (ch 16) oleg@ans.usr.shi.spb.ru Graham Sem, Papua New Guinea (ch 17) grahams@sprep.org.ws, aram@samoa.ws Barry Smit, Canada (ch 18) bsmit@uoguelph.ca Joel Smith, US (ch 19) JSmith@stratusconsulting.com WG III D.H. Bouille dbouille@mbox.servicenet.com.ar * I.A. Bashmakov cenef@glas.apc.org J.A. Sathaye jasathaye@lbl.gov * J.B. Robinson johnr@sdri.ubc.ca J.C. Hourcade hourcade@centre-cired.fr K. Halsnaes kirsten.halsnaes@risoe.dk ucc-khal@risoe.dk L. Srivastava leena@teri.res.in R.A. Sedjo sedjo@rff.org T. Banuri banuri@tellus.org * T. Barker terry.barker@econ.cam.ac.uk * J.R. Moreira bun2@tsp.com.br * Rich Richels rrichels@epri.com * D.Zhou becon@public3.bta.net.cn A. Markandya hssam@bath.ac.uk C.J. Jepma jiq@northsea.nl c.j.jepma@eco.rug.nl F.L. Toth ferenc.toth@pik-potsdam.de J.P. Weyant weyant@leland.stanford.edu M.J. Mwandosya ceest@intafrica.com P.E. Kauppi pekka.kauppi@helsinki.fl W.R. Moomaw wmoomaw@emerald.tufts.edu wmoomaw@tufts.edu P.R. Shukla shukla@iimahd.ernet.in T. Morita t-morita@nies.go.jp Lenny Berstein Lsberns@Worldnet.Att.Net * Indicates members of the core writing team.