cc: Joel Smith <JSmith@stratusconsulting.com>
date: Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:46:03 -0600
from: Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>
subject: longterm river flow
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

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Phil,

Can you send me any reports or papers on the latest
long term riverflow reconstructions you've done.

Has any of this been used in the context of future change?
In other words, if one just added future projections
to present (say the last 50 years), then the results
would be different from the case if one added the future
to a wider range of "present" based on observed variability
over a number of centuries.

More specifically, if the change in flow were a reduction
of X units, and if there were a time a few hundred years
ago when the natural flow was Y less than today, then
a combination of an anthropogenic reduction of X and a
natural reduction of Y would be doubly bad.

So -- big question -- has the UK looked at the combined
effect of X *and* Y?

Thanks for your help,
Tom.

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