date: Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:57:08 -0400 from: Andrew Revkin subject: nature paper / ocean model as short-term regional climate forecast to: trenbert@ucar.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, tom.delworth@noaa.gov, broccoli@envsci.rutgers.edu, cwunsch@ocean.mit.edu, rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de, rcurry@whoi.edu, jseveringhaus@ucsd.edu, shs@stanford.edu Hi all, I'd greatly appreciate your input (under Nature embargo rules, meaning no public discussion til Weds afternoon) on the attached paper (news/views attached as well) forecasting a north atlantic-driven cool spell for next decade or so based on a new approach to ocean modeling. this has significance in policy arena, of course, if people don't appreciate that inevitable wiggles from climate variability can muddy trends. If they don't, then efforts to paint human-pushed warming as an 'urgent' imperative can be undercut. (this all presumes you think this is solid model and forecast...) thanks for input on the basic question of whether this is solid, and/or on the implications if so. here are a couple questions i've sent to the authors: 1) I need help figuring out if the 'tip' to North Atlantic cooling (,to the mean) has already begun, according to the model? Is there any sense that it might have contributed to the post 1998 slowdown in warming (which varies depending on data set, but seems 'real'). 2) Kevin Trenberth (NCAR) and others have urged int'l climate community to move more toward forecasting, given that no policy choices are going to measurably limit climate change for decades. This seems like an early-stage tool that could fill that bill. Am I right in that? What would you like to add to this model to see it play a real-world role? 3) Your cool forecast has significance not only for planners, but for folks locked in policy debates (kyoto successor, US climate legislation etc). If the public, and policymakers, don't understand that climate variability can muddy the short-term picture, are they apt to lose faith in those calling human-forced warming an 'urgent' problem and the like? -- Andrew C. Revkin The New York Times / Science 620 Eighth Ave., NY, NY 10018 Tel: 212-556-7326 Mob: 914-441-5556 Fax: 509-357-0965 www.nytimes.com/revkin Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WarmSeaShortPredictNatPaper08.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WarmSeaShortPredictNatPaper081.pdf"