date: Mon Jan 17 10:58:36 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: FW: FYI --- better read this sitting down to: "Tett, Simon" Simon, Read Inhofe's speech a few days after it came out. Hans' comments were unfortunate if true. Hans is still of the opinion that the late-20th century is the warmest period of the last millennium. The basic message should still be this. As for the Arctic, the following bit of text is currently in the IPCC report - submitted last week to WGI. Snow cover has decreased in many NH regions, particularly in the spring season and this is consistent with greater increases in spring than autumn temperatures in mid-latitude regions. The reduction in frost days is principally due to an earlier last day of frost in spring rather than a later start to the frost season in autumn. Sea-ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in the spring and summer seasons, and patterns of the changes are consistent with regions showing a temperature increase. Overall the Arctic (north of 65ºN) average annual temperature has increased since the 1960s and is now warmer (at the decade timescale) than conditions experienced during the 1920-45 period. The recent warm period in the Arctic is, however, not yet as long as that in the early-to-mid 20th century. Patterns of Arctic warmth in the two periods (1920-45 and since 1990) are also quite different, as they are in almost all regions of the world with adequate data for the earlier period. Patterns of recent warming in the Arctic are more consistent with changes in the NAM than those earlier in the 20th century. It is in an concluding section and I think we will need to add a figure into the main part of the text. So Arctic warmth and its 'impression in a time series plot' depends how much you smooth it. If you decadally smooth then the last 15 years are warmest. There wasn't a time series for the Arctic in the TAR. We need one - we have an SST series for the N. Atlantic north of 35N, which shows recent period way warmer than earlier in the 20th century. Maybe I'll see you next week at Exeter - Jan 26 or better 27th. Cheers Phil At 06:31 16/01/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, picked the wrong address! Sorry as you won't get this for another week (as I write in on a plane to the US) S Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://www.hadobs.org -----Original Message----- From: Jones, Philip [[3]mailto:philip.jones@metoffice.gov.uk] Sent: 07 January 2005 12:44 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------