date: Wed, 01 Sep 1999 17:58:22 +0100 from: "Jenkins, Geoff" subject: CoP5 reporrt to: "'parryml@aol.com'" , "'n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk'" , "'m.cannell@ite.ac.uk'" , "'s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk'" , "'mtjl.jei@uea.ac.uk'" , "'t.mcmichael@lshtm.ac.uk'" , "'r.nicholls@mdx.ac.uk'" , "'martin.parry@uea.ac.uk'" , "'awhite@ite.ac.uk'" , "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" , "'penny_bramwell@detr.gsi.gov.uk'" , "'caroline_fish@detr.gsi.gov.uk'" Dear Fast Trackers I had a long meeting with DETR this morning about the fast track report for Bonn. Their main comment was from Henry Derwent (Director - Environment, Risks, Atmosphere), who would like to bring out more detail in the Key Findings about specific areas which could face substantial impacts (some of this is already mentioned in your text and just needs pulling out - some will need to be drafted based on maps etc), and then say that these impacts can be reduced by stabilisation scenarios. He would also like to see maps much bigger to show the detail of the impacts on specific countries - he realises that there are uncertainties in such small scale detail, but we should be able to cover that point in the text. The idea is that the changes from present to 2080s would be shown for the three scenarios, with each map taking half a page over a 2 page spread - this of course will make the report longer by 4-6 pages or so. Big maps would be of: 1 temperature - OK 2 precipitation - OK 3 change in biomass (Andy/Melvin - can you send me .ps files of each of the six maps separately, please - we cant ungroup the block you have sent) 4 change in water stress (Nigel - can you send a water stress 3 up for the 2080s please - at present yours (fig 4) is for the 2050s) 5 crop yield - OK 6 sea level rise areas affacted (Robert - can you think of a way of showing the areas worst affected by SLR and how these change under S550 and S750, please - ie a map version of your fig 2 and 3 - something like the one we used at Kyoto but with the coastal lines in different colours to represent number of people flooded?) 7 CHANGE in transmission season of malaria - OK (but different to one in draft) Could those from whom I have requested revisions send them as soon as possible, and at the latest by Monday - thanks. DETR would also like to have the numbers of people affected by impacts in the case of NO climate change, for comparison with the EXTRA number affected by climate change scenarios. These would be in the text only. We did this before, but not unifornmly. Could you please let me have these, for 2020s, 50s, 80s, in the next 2 days, please. I will email you revised drafts of the text (changes will be mainly to key findings to bring out the country/region aspects, but also include some other changes in the body of the text to cover other comments from DETR, and indeed yourselves) hopefully by Friday. Could you please send your agreement or mods by Monday 6th to give us a chance of getting it produced in time. I am sorry this is all a bit rushed, but you will recall that the plan agreed on 28 June called for the first draft to be sent to DETR by 1 August, and this ended up being 18 days late. Because of the importance of the report as viewed by DETR, they will be inviting Prescott to sign the Foreword. The conclusion s of the report will be presented to an open meeting at CoP5 Bonn, just as we did at CoP4 Buenos Aires. I will present the climate aspects, and DETR would like Martin Parry to present ALL the impacts areas - otherwise it will get very bitty. I trust you will be happy to let Martin represent your impacts area - there will be little time to go into anything other than the basic message + 1 0r 2 figs in the report. We will also have a stand at the conference, which we would like to have staffed. Hadley Centre can do this to cope with questions on the climate, but I would be grateful if this time we could also have a representative from impacts groups as well during the period 25 Oct - 5 Nov. This period could be shared, with one person doing a week or even 2 or 3 days. I would be grateful if you could let me know if you would be available for this, and if so what dates. Based on our experiences at Buenos Aires and Kyoto, it was a rewarding task to talk to many of the people at the conference, many of who had very little understanding of the subject and yet who were taking some vital decisions (eg ministers, US congressmen, big business, etc) Thanks Geoff Geoff Jenkins Head, Climate Prediction Programme Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Met. Office BRACKNELL RG12 2SZ UK Tel: +44 1344 85 6653 Fax: +44 1344 85 4898 http://www.meto.gov.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html