date: Fri Oct 8 13:27:09 1999 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: ACACIA scenarios to: Timothy Carter Tim, Tried phoning, but no response. I've got negative time available right now. I now have the lead responsibility to get our outline bid for £10 million sorted out before Friday next week - and tihs is with 10 other institutions and 24 co-applicants! I cannot therefore make PIK at all and will tell Wolfgang today. Would you be able to do the 20 minutes on IPCC/ACACIA scenarios? There will be available a set of ACACIA OHs that Martin has prepared that could suffice is necessary - you may have some of your own re. the scatter plots etc., which are not on the ACACIA OHs. David Viner will also be briefed, but I do not want him giving my talk. Sorry to land you in it - it's not often I pull out of meetings at the last moment. Without thinking too much about things, I feel we should include the CCSR result in the scatters - it is a DDC model after all. A note explaining things might help. See you in Brussels I hope. Mike At 10:37 08/10/99 +0300, you wrote: >Mike, > >Thanks for the ACACIA link. What's your latest status re. Potsdam? > >I guess that you're heavily stressed by proposal writing, but I have a >rather pressing query from Heikki. > >He has produced some graphs of selected representative regions for the >characterizations, and they seem OK except for some enormous changes at >northern high latitudes with the Japanese model. With scaling these are up >to 26 deg C (Arctic Ocean - we haven't looked at Arctic land yet)! Seasonal >changes in the tropics are nearer a few deg C and in the Antarctic are less >than 10 deg C. Unfortunately, we have been unable to plot maps of the >Japanese outputs using the visualisation tool (we both have firewall >problems and this model isn't on the CDRom), but we did track down a map >plus interesting comment in the caption at the University of Tokyo site - >see bottom of this page: > >http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/ewarming.html > >(incidentally, you might use this as a link on the DDC - the DKRZ link >doesn't seem to work). > >The version of the model seems to be an earlier one than the one you have >processed, and it shows equilibrium responses at 2 x CO2 supposedly with a >coupled AO model, but the changes in the north are pretty big. In addition, >the comment below the figure indicates that the sea-ice feedback is >exaggerated in this model, hence the mega changes we are seeing. Have you >noticed this when processing the transient data? I wonder if someone could >check this for us. If our suspicions are confirmed, it begs the question as >to how we might now proceed. Some options: > >1. Do nothing, and present the graphs with a major caveat for high northern >latitudes included; > >2. Omit the CCSR model results for high latitude regions (but these are >included in the range maps of your analysis, of course. > >3. Omit the CCSR results for all regions (but this will be inconsistent >with your analysis) on the grounds that if model reliability is poor over >high NH we can have only limited confidence in the results in other parts >of the globe. > >If we can resolve this, and no more glitches appear in the other regions, I >think that the full set of scatter plots can be produced fairly quickly. >The only other issue to finalise then is Mike Schlesinger's sulphate maps, >but they can wait until after your Oct 15 deadline. > >Best regards, > >Tim > > >************************************************ > >Dr. Timothy Carter >Finnish Environment Institute >Box 140, Kesäkatu 6, FIN-00251 Helsinki, FINLAND > >Tel: +358-9-40300-315 >Fax: +358-9-40300-390 >Email: tim.carter@vyh.fi > >************************************************ > >