date: Fri Aug 6 14:48:14 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Whilst we are on web sites to: "Folland, Chris" Chris, I'll get some modifications made to the page, which is one of our information sheets. This came a few minutes ago. It comes indirectly from Philip Eden via Michael Dukes who used to be in CRU. It probably needs following up by whoever does the CET down your way. I can see the drift in the provisional and final CET values from March04 onwards that is mentioned. Cheers Phil From: Michael Dukes Date: 6 August 2004 14:02:09 BST To: David Viner Subject: RE: CET drift -----Original Message----- From: Philip Eden [[1]mailto:philip@weather-uk.com] Sent: 06 August 2004 12:56 To: 'andy@essan.fsnet.co.uk' Subject: CET drift Andy Thanks for drawing attention to this. You may have noticed that the Met Office / Hadley Centre haven't published a provisional CET for July (at least, not as far as I can tell). There appears to be something seriously wrong with the "Final Hadley Centre CET" and it's surprising it hasn't been sorted out. This is something that I first noticed in March. I've just done a quick tabulation which shows a step-change in March between the final Hadley Centre CET and all other national temperature measures including my CET calculation. (You may remember that my calculation aims to emulate the Hadley Centre figure, but it's done entirely independently). The England & Wales figure will naturally differ more, and it shows a higher difference in summer than winter, but even here the change in March this year stands out. Herewith the table ... it starts in Jan 2003: Month MOprov MOfinal PEfinal MOEng&Wales Jan 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 Feb 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 Mar 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 Apr 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.3 May 12.0 12.1 11.9 11.6 Jun 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.5 Jul 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.0 Aug 18.3 18.3 18.3 17.7 Sep 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.0 Oct 9.3 9.2 9.2 8.9 Nov 8.1 8.1 8.2 7.9 Dec 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 Jan 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.9 Feb 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.0 Mar 6.6 6.9 6.6 6.2 Apr 9.6 9.9 9.5 9.1 May 12.3 12.7 12.2 11.7 Jun 15.4 16.1 15.4 14.9 Jul x x 15.8 15.4 By all means use the above, with the usual credit please. KR Philip Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------