date: Tue, 29 Dec 1998 15:54:09 -0500 from: sdecotii@ncdc.noaa.gov subject: IPCC Chapter 2 Outline and Letter for Contributors to: pgroisma@ncdc.noaa.gov, drobins@gandalf.rutgers.edu, serreze@kryos.colorado.edu, jmagnuson@macc.wisc.edu, tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, gruza@omvpk.msk.su, raino.heino@fmi.fi, pf@dmi.min.dk, Phil.Arkin@noaa.gov, rheim@ncdc.noaa.gov, Richard_Armstrong@nocc.gov, j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz, William.Hogg@ec.gc.ca, Frank.H.Quinn@noaa.gov, robock@envsci.rutgers.edu, swwang@pku.edu.cn, laban.ogallo@meteo.go.ke, mechoso@cloud.atmos.ucla.edu, adai@cgd.ucar.edu, d9k@d9k.esd.ornl.gov, conway@atmos.washington.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k-kunkel@uiuc.edu, deparker@meto.gov.uk, n.plummer@bom.gov.au, fzwiers@ec.gc.ca, ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, rquayle@ncdc.noaa.gov, robert.balling@asu.edu, landsea@aoml.noaa.gov, nnn@bom.gov.au, trenbert@ra.cgd.ucar.EDU, rdrosen@aer.com, gibm0978@info.iuol.cn.net, James.Angell@noaa.gov, sen@met.fsu.edu, mlal@cas.iitd.ernet.in, brazdil@porthos.geogr.muni.cz (See attached file: Ipcclead_prelim.doc)(See attached file: Paris4.doc) December 24, 1998 Dear Invited Contributor: This note is to formally request a contribution from you as a Contributor to the IPCC Third Assessment Report. In particular, we are soliciting your input to Chapter 2 of the report AObserved Variations and Changes in Climate@. A draft topic sentence outline for the content of the chapter, along with a list of Convening Lead Authors (CLA), Lead Authors (LA) and review Editors (RE) is given for your information at the end of this letter. Please see the enclosed outline for the areas we thought you could best contribute, but if there are additional areas you would like to contribute to, please provide the material to me and I will forward it to the appropriate Lead Author. Essentially, the fundamental purpose of the Chapter is to assess research on obtaining information about changes and variations of the climate based on observed and proxy records. Please consult a copy of the 1995 IPCC chapter for guidance on general content and style, though we are, of course, intending to put major new emphases on the recent issues that have arisen. You should also bear in mind the relevence of any material to the climate change detection issue. Although most of the material directly relevant to that chapter (Chapter 12) will go directly to those Lead Authors, do not hesitate to draw attention to material within your terms of reference that might be relevant in either that or our chapter. At this time, we are looking for short text contributions (1 to 3 pages) for each section where your name appears. In addition, we are requesting diagrams or figures you think are appropriate. If these can be provided in electronic form, that would be a benefit. Please discuss this with your lead author but POSTSCRIPT or embedded WORD97 diagrams are preferred in many cases. It is especially important that you write to the style of previous IPCC reports and you include references to work cited. As many of you know, it is extremely unlikely that your text will be preserved in the final draft, but we have found that almost without exception that the topics addressed in invited contributions have found their way into the final report. We need to have your contribution by February 20 to meet the schedule listed below: February 20, 1999 B> Assemble Draft Minus 1 for review at the Asheville Meeting March 8-12, 1999B> Asheville Lead Author and Contributor Review Meeting (Contributors attend at their discretion) May 14, 1999 --> Zero order draft for informal review within the IPCC October 1, 1999 --> First draft for official Expert Review March 24, 2000 --> Second draft for official Government Review September 29, 2000 --> Third Draft addressing all review comments January 2001 --> Last plenary in which the TAR is finalized However, we recognize that this timetable may be insufficient for all your material. Please advise your requesting lead author of material you wish to submit a little later. Other key dates include material presented by your lead author at the Asheville meeting (March 8-12) and delivery by early April for inclusion in the zero order draft. We point out that inclusion in the Chapter of the material you send to us is not guaranteed. It is up to the CLAs and LAs to evaluate the appropriateness of including your material in the Chapter. The Chapter will only include material produced subsequent to the publication of the 1995 WGI SAR report, unless it is relevant to ongoing controversies, or material that for whatever reason was not included in the SAR, but that it is relevant for the TAR. Therefore, please do not send all of your research products, but only recent (i.e. post 1995) and relevant ones (based on the points above and the Chapter outline. Please be concise and focused with the material you send. In particular, state clearly if you want to convey a specific message. The information you send should be available in the published literature papers, books, reports, proceedings etc., not necessarily in English, be part of a database that has been peer-reviewed and is available for analysis or at least be part of a submitted paper or report (and thus available in preprint format) by the time of the various deadlines. Following IPCC rules also "unpublished reports in the public domain" are eligible for inclusion/reference. Although the basic structure of the Chapter is not cast in stone at this time, we will likely not modify it substantially unless there was a very compelling reason. This basic Chapter structure has already been accepted by the IPCC Plenary. We have organized our chapter and the handling of submitted contributions in the following way: We formed sub-groups of LAs and Key Contributors in charge of producing a first draft of each section of the Chapter. If we have not tagged you in the appropriate section, we ask that you identify the section of the Chapter you feel your contribution is most relevant for and send your contribution to the LAs in charge of that section or the Key Contributor who will forward it on to the appropriate LA. Please, do not send material to all of us or only to the Chapter CLAs. The contribution can be in the form of written summary statements, figures and tables (possibly with comments on them), pre- and re-prints of papers and other published material. Electronic mail, fax or hard copies are ok. If you have any question you can reach me by e-mail, fax or phone as noted above. Thanks again for your help. Please let us know if you cannot meet the February 20 deadline. Based on this set of deadlines, it is evident that the scheduling for the production of the Chapter is extremely tight, so that we need to receive contributions AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, noting the statement made under the timetable above. In particular, the most relevant deadline is that of the first draft, because this is the first one going out for official external review. Likely, the basic content of the Chapter will highly resemble that of the first draft. Therefore, we stress the importance of sending us material early that can be updated relatively easily until the first full draft of October 1, 1999 (which means realistically by MID SEPTEMBER 1999), even better for the 0 order draft of May 14, 1999. Also, again following IPCC rules, material can still be cited anytime up to the 2nd draft stage (February-March 2000) for late-breaking papers/reports. Also, we ask you to please circulate this solicitation for contribution to colleagues that are not included in the above email list and that you think should (please also let us know their email address so we can include them in the list for future communications). If you have any question on the Chapter, you can address them at the following email addresses: tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov or cfolland@meto.gov.uk With the best regards of all the authors of Chapter Chapter 2 authors: CLA: C. Folland (UK) E-Mail: cfolland@meto.gov.uk T. Karl (USA) E-Mail: tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov LA: S. Wang (China) E-Mail: swwang@pku.edu.cn J. Christy (USA) E-Mail: christy@atmos.uah.edu J. Jouzel (France) E-Mail: jouzel@obelix.saclay.cea.fr A. Clarke (Canada) E-Mail: clarke@eos.ubc.ca J. Oerlemans (Netherlands) E-Mail: j.oerlmans@fys.ruu.nl M. Mann (USA) E-Mail: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu (normal) memann@titan.oit.umass.edu (attachments) G. Gruza (Russian Federation) E-Mail: climate@cabel.net M. Salinger (New Zealand) E-Mail:j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz RE: B. Nyenzi (Tanzania) E-Mail: bnyenzi@nyenzi.com R. Hallgren (USA) E.Mail: hallgren@dc.ametsoc.org Sincerely, Chris Folland Tom Karl . Co-Convening Lead Authors 10 Chapter 2 Outline and Assigned Areas of Primary Responsibility 1 The overall length of Chapter 2 should be about 35 two-column pages including figures. In the outline below contributions are identified along with topic sentence issues related to the contribution from each contributor. Those authors with an asterisk beside their name are responsible for developing first draft all material until the next author with an asterisk appears in the outline. 2 Introduction — Folland* and Karl to describe the motivation for Chapter 2, primary issues, and how uncertainty is addressed 2.1 Summary of IPCC 1995 ---- Folland and Karl* to describe the highlights of IPCC 1995 and provide information to the reader regarding areas of particular note for this report as related to major advances in our knowledge about climate variations and changes within the IPCC 2000 report. Put in context of key controversies. 2.2 How much is the world warming? 2.2.1 Background ---- Karl to discuss the variety of thermal indicators available and why we look at so many different measures of temperature change. 2.2.2 Surface temperature ---- Karl to describe primary issues affecting our confidence in documenting changes of temperature in the instrumental record on global, regional and local space scales. We will be calculating various trends and smoothing methods, so please send data described below to tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov. 2.2.2.1 Land surface air temperature Folland */Jones/Peterson/Gruza/Hansen to provide update of worldwide surface land temperature change and description of data trends and improvements since 1995 IPCC report. Four data sets will be used (Hansen, Jones, Peterson, and Gruza/Laguina to update Vinnikov/Groisman data set). Please include NH, SH and Globe. Please provide annual and monthly values to Tom Peterson for plotting and trend calculation. If possible provide data on 5x5 grid for each year/month value for the following data sets: GHCN and Jones (East Anlglia data). Easterling to provide write-up on updated trends for max/min/dtr. These data should be provided on a 5x5 grid (Annual). Cloud amounts could be plotted on the same time series graph (see Dai analysis) ---- Easterling -- Coordinate with Groisman, Kaiser and Dai to obtain national cloud cover data sets. 2.2.2.2 Sea surface and ocean surface air temperature. 2.2.1.1 Folland/Parker/Reynolds/Quayle to update worldwide NH, SH, and global SSTs with accompanying diagrams including recent modeling results with fixed SSTs with and without bucket corrections. Please include a description of observed changes. Reynolds/Quayle to provide data subsequent to bucket corrections, e.g., satellite era. Provide annual and year-month values to David Parker for plotting and trend calculations for NH, SH, and Globe. For Folland/Parker provide 5x5 gridded data. Also Folland and Parker will provide plots of SST and nighttime marine air temperatures on an annual basis for Globe. 2.2.1.1 Land and sea combined Folland/Parker/Jones/Peterson/ Quayle. Folland will provide write-up describing results of combined data of the NH, SH and Globe which will include both circle plots reflecting trends at 5x5 grid cells as well as isopleth values depicting trends since the turn of the Century. This will be in addition to the time series plots of NH, SH, and Globe. 2.2.1.2 Are the surface temperature trends consistent? Folland and Parker to produce a description of the consistency among different data sets and land and ocean temperatures. We will also show here the trends of temperature for different periods (winter & summer) for the periods 1910-1945, 1946-1975, and 1976-present. These will be shown either in circle representation (5x5 grid cells) or in isopleth form. We have also been requested to produce the following time series on an annual basis for temps: NH-SH, Zonal 10-30N - 50-70N, Tland - Tocean, Twinter-Tsummer averaged for both hemispheres 1.1.1 2.2.2 Tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures — Christy*/Hurrell/ Parker/Santer/Palmer/Changery/Eskridge/Brown/Stendel/Angell/ Sterin/Gaffen/Ramaswamy. Zonal mean Temps T 700mb - T 100mb using radiosonde data. John Christy will lead this section. It will include a discussion of the observed changes of radiosonde and MSU temperatures as well as a discussion of these same trends from the NCEP re-analysis. Christy will provide an illustration depicting the trends of temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere using various data sets. Discussion should include the likelihood that the trends can change sign from the surface to the stratosphere as observed based on model simulations as well as physical arguments. CARDS data as well as the Parker data sets should be used. 2.2.21 Tropospheric trends Zonal plots are requested for the zones 20S to 20N and 20N and 60N. Discussion of radiosonde errors and error related to orbital drift, orbital decay, and calibration of instruments need to be considered. 2.2.2.2 Lower stratospheric trends ---- Alex Sterin should be contacted and the Ozone Assessment for 1998 should be considered (Ramanathan had the lead in the ozone assessment for this part of the report). 2.2.2.3 Are tropospheric and surface trends consistent? See notes in 2.2.3. 1.1.2 Volcanic and solar effects in the recent temperature record — Rind/Folland*/Haigue/Leen to discuss the effect of solar and volcanic forcing in the observed temperature record and the proxy record. — This section may be moved to the proxy records section. 2.2.3 Retreat of the glaciers — Oerlemans* to discuss both mass balance data and glacier length data as related to temperature.. Illustration required converting glacier length deviations to temperature based on modeling information. 1.1.1 2.2.4 Trends in snow cover extent and lake ice Karl*/Groisman/Robinson/Serreze/Magnuson. Provide updated figure of snow cover extent with co-plotted temperature data. Consider additional time series plots as related to snow cover from in-situ data. Discuss uncertainties in the data. Error due to gridding and method of observing and data processing. An update of the satellite N.H. snow cover extent data set is required (co-plotted with temperatures) for each season. Temperature should be within the snow covered areas. 2.2.5 Are the retreat of glaciers, lake ice records, and trends in snow cover consistent with surface temperature trends. Karl* 2.2.6 Sea ice and thickness — Clarke* /Walsh/Rayner. Provide time series of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice with discussion of data uncertainties and observed changes. Please to the extent possible discuss the physical factors governing sea ice extent to help interpret any changes in the time series. 2.2.7 Subsurface ocean temperatures — Clarke/Levitus/White/Philander Subsurface Ocean Temperature—A. Clarke will lead this session. Contribution will include Warren White, George Philander, and Syd Levitus but others are certain to be relevant. Issues to be addressed include changes in upper ocean temperature/salinity, to the dynamics related to changes in the N. Atlantic during the 1990s e.g., temperature and salinity as related to circulation, such as the NAO, and deep water temperature change that may be related to global surface temperature change points, e.g., 1945, 1977. Include Pacific Ocean where possible e.g, North Pacific gyre, inter-decadal tropical Pacific changes. This section may need interaction by the Lead Author with the Processes Chapter at an early stage. 2.2.8 All lead authors lead by Karl* (summary of 2.2) 2.3 Is the recent warming unusual? 2.3.1 Background — Mann*/Jouzel— Emphasize outstanding issues from the 1995 report and new areas of info since then, plus emphasize why this section is important. 2.3.2 Climate of the past 1000 years Mann will lead with Jones/Jouzel/Salinger. Emphasis will be on proxy, historical and borehole data that have been used to identify interannual and decadal temperature (N. Hemisphere or global) anomalies back to the so-called “Mediaeval Warm Period”. Discussion will emphasis uncertainties in reconstruction and compare the 1990s and the temperature increase of the 20th Century with the recent Millennium. Moisture related indicators should not be ignored. 2.3.2.1 Proxy Climate Indicators This section will focus on proxy indicators including tree ring data. Contributions from Overpeck, Fisher, J. Cole, Briffa, Barnett, Cook, and Bradley will be solicited. Assessment of uncertainties with respect to calibration differences between observed and proxy data as well as the effects in incomplete spatial coverage should be discussed. A figure showing best estimate and 95% confidence of temp back to 1000 AD is desirable. 2.3.2.2 Historical Documentary Evidence Section lead by Wang*/Salinger with contribution from Bradley, Diaz/Wang, Pfister, and Selivanov. New information on the warming trend in the Tibetan Plateau during the 20th Century should be discussed as well as other historical data. Historical documents from China and other parts of the world should be discussed as they relate to confirm and contradict present thinking about temperature change of the past 1000 years. 2.3.2.3 Borehole Measurements Section lead by Mann* with contribution from Pollock. This section should focus on recent efforts to develop a worldwide network of borehole measurements. Again uncertainties with respect to incomplete coverage and analysis methods should be discussed. A figure of borehole worldwide temps back to at least 1500 is desirable. 2.3.2.4 Multi-Proxy Synthesis Mann will lead this section. Emphasis will be on whether the proxy data builds a consistent picture of change. A figure showing both Borehole and Proxy temperature changes is desirable. 2.3.2.5 Glacier Length Records Oelermans* will lead with contr ibutions sought from Haeberli and Fitzharris. Rowden-Rich (Tasmania) has offered to contribute. Both observed glacier length and model data will be used to build a picture of multi-century temperature change. If possible, at least 1 figure should be produced to show the relation between temperature and glacial length. 2.3.2.6 Was there a Little Ice Age and a Mediaeval Warm Spell Mann* and Jones to lead. Discussion should answer the question posed in context with data from 2.3.2.1 to 2.3.2.5. 2.3.3. Summary of 2.3.2 Led by Folland* 2.4 2.4 How rapidly did climate change in the distant past? 2.4.1 Background Jouzel* will lead and emphasize data used to answer question above. Some discussion on why we can use just a few ice cores to discern changes of global climate in the distant past. 2.4.2 How stable was the Holocene climate? Jouzel to lead. Stability of the climate will be discussed as related to the 20th Century warming. Lake sediments, ice cores, deep sea sediments will all be referenced to provide a comprehensive picture. A figure showing temperature changes is desirable. How much warmer than now was the Holocene maximum? 2.4.3 How fast did climate change during the glacial period? Jouzel with contributions from Thompson (shallow ice cores) lakes (Overpeck), Magnuson (deep ice cores). Jouzel will also address ocean sediment data to discuss improved information about multiple episodes of almost global extent of “rapid climate change” since the last IPCC assessment. 2.4.4 How stable was the previous inter-glacial? Jouzel to lead. Primary question here is whether the earth has warmed by more than 0.6 EC during any Century since the previous inter-glacial. Has it warmed by more than 1-3EC (likely prediction for next Century). 2.4.5 Summary of 2.4 -- All lead authors lead by Jouzel 2.5 How have precipitation and atmospheric moisture changed? 2.5.1 Background Karl* will discuss uncertainties in precipitation and moisture measurements, and the need to intercompare observations from a variety of observing systems as well as their spatial continuity. Difficulties of high lat. and ocean precip measurements also discussed. Mention new “integrated” global precip data sets. 2.5.2 Trends in precipitation 2.5.2.1 Karl will lead with contributions from Groisman/Peterson/Hulme and Gruza. Precipitation changes will be identified in global maps (circle) as in 1995 report for 20th Century and during periods of change points 1900-45, 45-76 and 77-98 similar to temperature change points. These will be annual values as well as a cold and warm season. Projection of figure will be based on time series zonal plots and global maps with trend magnitude depicted by circles. Issues to resolve include precip in high latitudes, especially Russia . GHCN and Hulme combined data sets will be used, but national data from Russia (USSR) will take precedence to resolve apparent discrepancy with National Data Sets. Heino and Frich will contribute regional information (data to GHCN/Hulme data set as appropriate). Razuvaev will be contacted for Russian precip data . 2.5.2.2 Ocean Primary contributors include Arkin and Xie as related to the GPCP dataset. Primary issue relates to whether we have any information about large scale changes in ocean precip we can trust. Related data includes OLR and High reflectivity Data Sets as discussed in IPCC 1995. Arkin again is the primary information source. 2.5.2.3 Simultaneous changes of temp and precip Karl will discuss the trends (spatially and zonally) of temperature and precipitation changes for various periods of consistent global temperature change (1900-45, 45-76, and 77-98) for both the cold and warm season. 2.5.3 Snowfall Karl/Groisman/Robinson/Heim/ Lal/Armstrong will be the primary contributors. Snowfall information and snow depth from longer term in-situ data should also be incorporated as these data now span large areas of the NH (Robinson) key contact for N.A., Armstrong, USSR, Gruza/Razuvaev USSR also; Wang/Li for PRC. Lake Ice contribution John Magnusson (Univ of Wisconsin). 2.5.4 Land-surface and subsurface water 2.5.4.1 Streamflow Karl with lead with contributions from Salinger, Lins, Shiklomanov, and Georgievsky. South American data to include recent work appearing in J. Climate. Main issue is whether streamflow and precip trends are consistent. Other contributors include Lattenmeir (USA) and Salinger for S.H. information. Hogg to contribute info on Canadian Streamflow. Salinger will work with WMO Hydro group. S.A. information from Jose Marengo INPE. 2.5.4.2 Lake Levels Karl will lead with Vuglinsky as a contributor along with Nicholson and Street-Pernot to provide any update from 1995 report on lake levels. Quinn to update US Great Lakes and Hogg Canadian Lake levels. An update of the Caspian Sea level will be presented by Vuglinsky/Skiklomanov/Georgivsky. Salinger will work with WMO to obtain new data for S.H. 2.5.4.3 Soil moisture Robock/Speranskaya will be asked to provide updates of soil moisture over Russia and Wang/Robock over China. Key issue is whether soil moisture is consistent with related work. 2.5.5 Evaporation 2.5.5.1 Land Update of pan evaporation data over USA; Peterson; Update of Russian data Golevbev; Salinger to identify and develop S.H. pan evaporation data; Wang to focus on China Pan Evap data and Lal data and trends from India. Frich to focus on European pan evap data. Ogallo, African data and for S.A., Mechoso. 2.5.5.2 Ocean Allen Clarke* will lead this section. Primary issue will be to discuss trends of Evap and their affect on ocean circulation as well as trends of Evap over the ocean tropics in particular. Is there any new material since IPCC 1995? 2.5.6 Water Vapor Folland* with Parker will develop this contribution; new analyses from Zhai and Eskridge. CARDS data (Eskridge) Elliott and Gaffen for Euresia and North America. 2.5.6.1Surface water vapor SSM/I data and analyses by Gaffen may hold promise for new data. Christy will provide SSM/I analyses. Prospects of major new analyses of global water vapor at the surface?. 2.5.6.2 Tropospheric water vapor See notes in 2.5.6; Rob Allen could contribute w/r to his analysis of changes in global sea level pressure. 2.5.7 Clouds Karl* to lead with (Dai/Kaiser over land) 2.5.7.1 Land — New analyses by Dai and Kaiser over the land area should be included. 2.5.7.2 Ocean — New research by Bajuk/Leovy should be discussed; Bajuk will be asked to develop a 1-page contribution updating his recent paper. 2.5.8 Summary of 2.5 All lead authors led by Karl 2.6 Are the atmospheric/oceanic circulations changing? 2.6.1Background, including new evidence for natural decadal variability, Folland* to lead, with substantial support from Hurrell. 2.6.2 El Nino/Southern Oscillation Clarke, Folland, Salinger with input from K. Wolter, Livezey, Goddard and Graham. Emphasis to include a variety of ways to categorize ENSO/El Nino/La Nina and what they tell us, e.g, sea level, clouds, etc. This should also include quantitative information on subsurface temperature and salinity. SST analysis by Kaplan should also be considered. Time Series plans of ENSO should be developed and the question of changes in frequency/intensity, and contribution to global warmth of 1997/1998 addressed. 2.6.3 NAO, PNA AO, PDO, monsoonal indices and the COWL Folland with Hurrell, Wallace, Clarke, Wang, and Livezey. Information should include time series plots of important indices and a discussion regarding why these indices are useful measures of variability and how they affect our understanding of climate change. 2.6.4 Northern hemisphere circulation Gruza, Trenberth, Kingste Mo, and Livezey. Results from reanalysis should be discussed as related to changes in circulation. Can also include important large-scale changes as they would affect storms, precipitation, and other climate elements. 2.6.5 Southern hemisphere circulation Salinger to lead with contributions from Rob Allen, Neville Nicholls, and Warren White. Information should include circulation indices (including Austral-Asian Monsoon) and the Antarctic circumpolo-circulation both ocean and atmosphere. The South Pacific Convergence Zone and its relation to the understanding of climate variability/change 2.6.6 Summary of Section 2.6 ---- All Lead Authors lead by Folland 2.7 Has climate variability or climate extremes changed? ---- Karl*, Gruza, Groisman, Jones, Frich, Kunkel, Parker, Peterson, Plummer, Salinger and Heino. Should be asked to contribute to the section where appropriate 2.7.1 Background Definition of extremes, types of weather and climate extremes addressed, and what constitutes extremes in a changing climate. What is the use results from difference between variability changes and extremes. The Extremes Meeting in Aspen 1998, and the APN extremes meeting. Zwiers to contribute here with Peterson/Folland on APN Meeting. 2.7.2 Is there evidence for changes in climate variability? Define time scale and elements. New information from Robert Balling and R. Quayle. 2.7.2.1 Temperature Address changes in daily/monthly/seasonal/interannual and decadal changes in variability and extremes. New information from Extremes Workshop., Frich’s work with Peterson, Salinger for S.H. and Gruza indices 2.7.2.2 Precipitation Contribution from Peterson/Gruza/Thapliyal/Lal (India). Analyses of changes in precipitation variability that would be useful include changes in interannual precipitation, e.g., Indian Monsoonal Index, Zonal and Regional patterns. 2.7.2.3 Atmospheric circulation Input data sets include the CARDS (GUAN network plus) and the reanalysis. New analyses are encouraged with contributions from Folland*, Livezey, K. Mo, Eskridge, observed/calculated changes in variability of indices and patterns discussed in the circulation section 2.7.3 Are extreme weather events changing? Define terms here Karl* e.g., weather related to transcient circulation 2.7.3.1 Tropical cyclones Salinger, Landsea, Nicholls to discuss trends and variation of tropical cyclones, landfalling storms, and the intensity of storms. Include discussion of El Nino, La Nina effects all interannual variability. How good is our data on trends? 2.7.3.2 Extra-tropical storminess Karl with input from Jones, Gruza, Trenberth, Rosen to discuss new analyses with respect to storm intensity/tracts using reanalysis and sea level pressure. 2.7.3.3 Intense precipitation events Frich, Groisman, Zhai, Peterson, Jones, Kunkel and others participating in the AVL Extremes Meeting. Primary interest is new evidence improving information on trends and understanding how they arise. Discussion of changes in frequency and intensity are appropriate. 2.7.3.4 Extreme temperature Same as above with focus on breaking daily and monthly extreme records. Also include information on freeze days and high apparent temperature (combination of temperature and humidity) 2.7.3.5 Extreme surface moisture Dai as primary contribution. Include time series of drought/wet areal extent in terns of areal extent a/a recent paper by Dai et al. To show whether extremes of drought wet spells are increasing in areal extent. 2.7.3.6 Tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail, dust storms, and fire weather Contributors include Changnon, Angell, Brazdil, Trenberth, Landsea to provide data (time series) and discussion related to changes in these phenomena. 2.7.4 Summary of Section 2.7. Karl with input by all L.A. 2.8 Is the climate really changing? 2.8.1 Are the observed trends internally consistent Karl to lead the development of the IPCC 2001 version of the 1995 cartoon of observed changes with a 3 star rating with explanation for number of stars given to each variable e.g., conflicting analyses, quantity of information limited, etc. 2.8.2 What are the clearest changes? Folland* with input from all L.A.