cc: Sandy Tudhope , Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn , Gabi Hegerl , Chris Jones , Peter Cox , Rob Allan , Philip Brohan , Rob Wilson , Catherine Bass date: Mon, 17 Aug 2009 10:36:14 +0100 from: Simon Tett subject: Re: Proposed 2 pager to: Chris Turney Hi Chris, thanks for that. I've just managed a quick read. I'm pleased you are trying to pull together a bit of the community on this. It is not an easy job! However, I'm not convinced that what you are planning will do what is needed. I think the concept note still feels very general. Where is the focus and how will that focus improve scientific knowledge? How is the project a consortium? [For example the carbon cycle stuff could be de-coupled from the rest and the climate modelling from the paleo synthesis.] Some issues. Gabi has looked at constraining climate sensitivity from paleo data. I don't think it provided a very strong constraint and still admitted sensitivities greater than 7K.That might be dominated by uncertainty in paleo calibration though forcing uncertainty will be important as well. What kind of uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions do you think there will be. They'd need to be significantly smaller than the 4th assessment report found. More tractable might be to look at changes in circulation and regional climate change. [Which I know you hint at.] Gabi (PI) and I have a "blue skies" project funded which will look at regional climate change over Europe. We plan to do a load of runs with HadCM3 for that. We could send the proposal to the list if Gabi is happy to do so. I and Gabi also have funding from NCAS-Climate for a millennium simulation with HadGEM2. NCAS like us to raise additional money though! I'm happy to send our plans to the CC list (if Gabi doesn't object). Summary thoughts. Needs more focus. Not clear it is a consortium. I don't think this will be ready for December -- though the deadline does focus everyone's mind no end. Simon Chris Turney wrote: > Hi guys, > > Apologies for the delay in getting back to you. I'm in a very cold and > wet Bergen at the moment and the internet access is not the best. > > Many thanks for all your comments and suggestions. This all looks > great. I've tried to incorporate these into the concept note. The more > detailed points I've kept in a folder for us to thrash out the detail > for the next round. Can you let me know what you think of the attached > by Wednesday this week? If you're happy for us to proceed, perhaps we > can send in for Friday? As I head north the internet access will > probably get worse of if we can do it before I fall off the edge of the > known world that would be great. > > Also, I've contacted Eric Wolff to see if he would be interested in > being involved and as soon as I hear back I'll let you know. > > All the best, > > Chris > **************************************************** > *Professor Chris Turney FRSA FRGS* > > Director of Carbonscape , /Fixing carbon the > way nature intended/ > // > > Author of Ice, Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past > > Popular science website: > www.christurney.com > Journal of Quaternary Science > Asian and Australasian > Regional Editor > > School of Geography > The University of Exeter > Exeter > Devon > EX4 4RJ > UK > > Home page: > www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml > > E-mail: c.turney@exeter.ac.uk > Office Tel.: +44 (0)1392 263331 > Fax.: +44 (0)1392 263342 > > **************************************************** > > *Slartibartfast: * Science has achieved some wonderful things of course, > but I'd far rather be happy than right any day. > *Arthur Dent:* And are you? > *Slartibartfast:* No. Thats where it all falls down of course. > *Arthur Dent:* Pity. It sounded like quite a good lifestyle otherwise. > > /The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy/, Douglas Adams > > **************************************************** > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > = > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > -- Simon Tett Chair of Earth System Dynamics School of Geosciences The University of Edinburgh Tel:+44-(0)131-650-5341 Fax: +44 (0)131 668 3184 email:simon.tett@ed.ac.uk Room 351, Grant Institute, The King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW UK http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/people/person.html?indv=1592 The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336.