cc: , , , , , , "Grout Nick \(Mr ND" , , , , "White Kate [FCO] - UK" , , , , , , , "Dr Simon J Shackley" , date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 20:33:57 +0100 from: "John Ashton" subject: Re: Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional though to: "Warrilow, David \(GA\)" , "'Grubb, Michael J'" , "Kevin Anderson" , "Hernandez Tino \(Mr AF" , , "King MPST" , "Grout Nick \(Mr ND" , "Dodd Sheree \(Ms S" , "Dave Stainforth" , "Mike Hulme" Yes, this is correct. I fully understand the urge to set the record straight. But we should be very careful not to play into Illarionov's hands. Anything that he can portray, however unfairly, as foreign pressure will make it harder to reach the bigger goal of Kyoto. The events of last week were not helpful - but the damage they did was, I believe, second order. John ----- Original Message ----- From: [1]Warrilow, David (GA) To: [2]'Grubb, Michael J' ; [3]Kevin Anderson ; [4]Hernandez Tino (Mr AF ; [5]deborah.bronnert@fco.gov.uk ; [6]King MPST ; [7]Grout Nick (Mr ND ; [8]Dodd Sheree (Ms S ; [9]Dave Stainforth ; [10]Mike Hulme Cc: [11]chris.anastasi@british-energy.com ; [12]geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com ; [13]john.houghton@jri.org.uk ; [14]liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk ; [15]peter.stott@metoffice.com ; [16]N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk ; [17]Grout Nick (Mr ND ; [18]peter.cox@metoffice.com ; [19]john.ashton@co2.org ; [20]anton.atrashkin@fco.gov.uk ; [21]richard.turner@fco.gov.uk ; [22]White Kate [FCO] - UK ; [23]irina.kuklina@britishcouncil.ru ; [24]dimitri.popolov@fco.gov.uk ; [25]fiona.clouder@fco.gov.uk ; [26]simon.kay@britishcouncil.ru ; [27]simon@lead.org ; [28]hugh.elliott@fco.gov.uk ; [29]Dr Simon J Shackley ; [30]b.launder@umist.ac.uk Sent: Friday, July 16, 2004 3:06 PM Subject: RE: Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional though ts I haven't seen the attachment but Michael's caution seems very prudent. David -----Original Message----- From: Grubb, Michael J [mailto:michael.grubb@imperial.ac.uk] Sent: 16 July 2004 11:55 To: Kevin Anderson; Hernandez Tino (Mr AF; [31]deborah.bronnert@fco.gov.uk; King MPST; Grout Nick (Mr ND; Dodd Sheree (Ms S; Warrilow, David (GA); Dave Stainforth; Mike Hulme Cc: [32]chris.anastasi@british-energy.com; [33]geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com; [34]john.houghton@jri.org.uk; [35]liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk; [36]peter.stott@metoffice.com; [37]N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk; Grout Nick (Mr ND; [38]peter.cox@metoffice.com; [39]john.ashton@co2.org; [40]anton.atrashkin@fco.gov.uk; [41]richard.turner@fco.gov.uk; White Kate [FCO] - UK; [42]irina.kuklina@britishcouncil.ru; [43]dimitri.popolov@fco.gov.uk; [44]fiona.clouder@fco.gov.uk; [45]simon.kay@britishcouncil.ru; [46]simon@lead.org; [47]hugh.elliott@fco.gov.uk; Dr Simon J Shackley; [48]b.launder@umist.ac.uk Subject: RE: Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional thoughts Kevin Thanks for thoughts, my personal reactions: I would strip out the more political stuff (eg. getting David King or even Blair to sign anything would be seen as directly political foreign interference in Russia's domestic debates); the battle of who controls the RAS is an internal battle that UK cannot determine. How would we feel if Dick Cheney intervened to try and influence the content of a Royal Society report to HMG? I doubt the 'pro-Kyoto' folk in Russia need more ammunition, they need the internal power that can only come from being seen as legitimate, independent & credible (and well-connected within Russia), whilst Illarionov probably tries to paint them as foreign collaborators. So be careful, and I would incline to separate the UK scientific contacts from the political levels. Also I dont think we should be obsessed by the 1 Aug deadline, very hard for any of us to influence that now. The issue will run and run for a long time. And longer-term, scientific based relationships will indeed be crucial in that contact. So eg. a Tyndall-brokered research collaboration with Russian scientists ... ? Enough from me on this, none of us fully understand the forces at play or consequences of our inputs ... Michael -----Original Message----- From: Kevin Anderson [[49]mailto:kevin.anderson@umist.ac.uk] Sent: Thu 7/15/2004 9:21 PM To: 'Hernandez Tino (Mr AF'; [50]deborah.bronnert@fco.gov.uk; 'King MPST'; 'Grout Nick (Mr ND'; 'Dodd Sheree (Ms S'; [51]David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk; 'Dave Stainforth'; 'Mike Hulme' Cc: [52]chris.anastasi@british-energy.com; [53]geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com; [54]john.houghton@jri.org.uk; [55]liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk; [56]peter.stott@metoffice.com; Grubb, Michael J; N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk; 'Grout Nick (Mr ND'; peter.cox@metoffice.com; john.ashton@co2.org; anton.atrashkin@fco.gov.uk; richard.turner@fco.gov.uk; 'White Kate [FCO] - UK'; irina.kuklina@britishcouncil.ru; dimitri.popolov@fco.gov.uk; fiona.clouder@fco.gov.uk; simon.kay@britishcouncil.ru; simon@lead.org; hugh.elliott@fco.gov.uk; 'Dr Simon J Shackley'; b.launder@umist.ac.uk Subject: Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional thoughts Dear All, As one of the 'not-so-young' young scientists attending the recent UK-Russia climate change workshop, I had the misfortune to witness Illarionov both exert almost total control over the RAS and unreservedly dismiss the cogency of the UK delegation's scientific and economic case for Russia signing Kyoto. Given the UK Government's and David King's express concern over escalating greenhouse gas emissions and the importance of the Kyoto Protocol as a first step in their mitigation, it would seem wise that some alternative route be found by which UK experts can make their representation both to the relevant RAS scientists and other influential players with the decision-making process. In light of the imminent deadline for the RAS to submit their report to Putin (1st August), any such representation needs to be made in the coming 7 to 10 days. To this end, and having discussed my proposals with Mike Hulme and Dave Stainforth, I attach some provisional thoughts on how this may be achieved. I realise, and indeed hope, the government and David King are already implanting a plan B, and if so my suggestions may be an unnecessary distraction. If this is the case I apologise in advance. Kind regards Kevin. Dr K.L. 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