date: Tue Jan 27 16:33:13 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: AM I RIGHT ABOUT THIS? to: John Davies John, I've modified your text. Phil At 14:19 16/01/2004 +0000, you wrote: Dear Phil, I would be grateful if you could tell me if there is anything which is not true in the following passage from a paper/letter which I have written. I imagine you have not got the time to read the whole thing but will send it you if you would like it. ''CAMPAIGN TO SAVE GLOBAL CLIMATE JB DAVIES JAN 2003 THE SITUATION NOW. This campaign is being started because of the grave danger that global warming poses to the worlds climate, all the people who live on the world and nearly all the species of plants and animals in the world. The leading climate research organisations, the overwhelming majority of the worlds climate scientists, and all the leading climate scientists are in general agreement that the world is warming as a result of human use of fossil fuels which is adding to the greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere, that the world is now half a degree Celsius warmer than it was less than thirty years ago and global climate is becoming destabilised. The above mentioned people and organisations are also in general agreement on the following: The three year period 2001-2003 was the warmest three year period on record at 0.45 degrees Celsius above the 1961-90 global average according to figures issued by the Hadley Centre. This is 0.51 degrees Celsius above the 1951-76 global average. These figures show that since 1976 the world has been warming at a fairly constant rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade reaching 0.51 degrees Celsius above the level it was between 1951 and 1976 for the 2001-2003 period. This is already causing some difficulties and probably one of these was the very hot summer in Europe in 2003. It has been estimated that about 150,000 people are dying every year worldwide as a result of global warming. Nevertheless, so far the disruption to human life on the planet caused by global warming is relatively small. This will probably remain the case for the next few years as global temperatures over this short period will probably be very little different to the present. However even within the next five years temperatures rising at 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade will cause noticeably greater disruption and hardship, certainly by 2008 unless a very large volcano puts dust into the Stratosphere which reflects enough incoming sunlight back into space to cause slight cooling of the earth for 2 or 3 years delaying the onset of global warming during this period. Though there is no evidence to suggest that this is going to happen or that it is not going to occur, I personally feel that it will happen. The worst thing about global warming is that these problems, which are already starting, will be permanent. Though the hot summer of 2003 over Europe may not repeat itself for more than a few decades or so other climate related phenomena due to global warming will probably repeat themselves somewhere in the world on a regular basis from now on. They will get much worse over time and once they are generally recognised will cause a dark cloud over peoples outlook on the future. THE NEXT TEN YEARS The global temperature figures issued by the Hadley Centre probably give an accurate picture of where global temperatures now stand. Essentially these show that the three year January 2001 - December 2003 period was 0.51 degrees Celsius above the 1951-76 global average. The three year January 2011 until December 2013 period has about a 60% chance of being between 0.65 and 0.75 degrees Celsius warmer than the level betweem 1951 and 1976 with a 20% chance of being cooler than this and 20% warmer. Whilst this will not be catastrophic on a global scale assuming that global temperatures do not exceed 0.75 degrees Celsius above the 1951-1976 level, though it might be for some localities, over this time period it will mean that climatic disruption over this period will get noticeably worse and the majority of people around the world will become aware that if drastic action is not taken to save global climate then the future will be very bleak for humanity. All of the above is accepted by most climate scientists and all the worlds leading climate scientists and climatic research institutions. The following is my best interpretation of the climate situation and how this problem should be tackled. I take full responsibility for any actions which result from what is said both the credit for what I hope will be beneficial and any blame if it is not on balance beneficial. '' All the Best, John B Davies Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------