date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 14:37:42 -0400 from: Edward Cook subject: Re: Fwd: climate story to: Keith Briffa Flesh out a 2-3 page proposal and I will pass it by Broecker. He is the first-order filter before anything would go to Gary Comer. I might have to put myself in as lead P.I. however to get the "first-order filter" to look at it. >Why are you and that scientist with a reputation for big .. planning >some extended tree-ring work (WITH SELECTED EUROPEANS OF COURSE)! >>X-Sender: f028@pop.uea.ac.uk >>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1 >>Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 16:51:27 +0100 >>To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>From: Phil Jones >>Subject: Fwd: climate story >> >> >> FYI - worth a read ! >> >>>From: "Regalado, Antonio" >>>To: "Regalado, Antonio" >>>Subject: climate story >>>Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 10:45:27 -0400 >>>X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2654.89) >>>X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by >>>secinsgproxy.dowjones.com id h6HEjZh12696 >>> >>> >>>Thank you for your help with this article. Please keep me in mind if you >>>have climate science related news in the future. -- Antonio >>> >>>Antonio Regalado >>>Staff Reporter, The Wall Street Journal >>>212-416-3011 (Tel.) >>>917-686-3389 (Cell) >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>Weather Vane: Billionaire Opens His Deep Pockets For Climate Theory --- >>>Lands' End Founder Throws Millions Into Hunt for Data Showing Cataclysmic >>>Shifts --- Why the Akkadians Dried Up >>>By Antonio Regalado >>>2,353 words >>>17 July 2003 >>>The Wall Street Journal >>>A1 >>>English >>>(Copyright (c) 2003, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.) >>>In May, billionaire Gary Comer and four climate experts boarded his Cessna >>>Caravan and took off in search of a catastrophe. >>>Flying low over southwestern Ontario, the group scanned the ground for >>>boulders left behind by an ancient flood. The deluge, involving 2,000 cubic >>>miles of fresh water from a prehistoric lake nearby, sent temperatures over >>>the North Atlantic plummeting about 12,700 years ago, according to a theory >>>advanced by scientists on the flight. >>>The cataclysm -- triggered by the melting of glaciers at the close of the >>>last ice age -- poses an urgent question for the present: Could global >>>warming also set off unexpected and extreme climate shifts, such as >>>substantial regional drops in temperature or long droughts? >>>Some scientists think it's a possibility, and now their research is getting >>>a major boost from Mr. Comer, 75 years old. The founder and former chairman >>>of Lands' End Inc. sold the company to Sears, Roebuck & Co. last year, >>>pocketing just over half the proceeds from the $1.9 billion cash deal. Since >>>witnessing unusual ice conditions on an Arctic cruise, Mr. Comer has started >>>handing out millions of dollars to researchers trying to document so-called >>>abrupt climate change. >>>The idea is that the Earth's climate can sometimes behave more like a switch >>>than a dial, jumping in a matter of years between dramatically different >>>conditions. At the time of the big flood in Ontario, temperatures in >>>Greenland dropped by 18 degrees Fahrenheit. The flood also probably upset >>>ocean currents and changed rainfall patterns as far away as the Asian >>>monsoon. >>>Abrupt climate change is a wild card in the divisive debate over the causes >>>of global warming. For many, the chief culprits are so-called greenhouse >>>gases formed by the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal. These >>>gases are thought to be insulating the planet like a blanket, causing >>>temperatures to rise. A United Nations report predicts that average >>>temperatures will increase 2.5 degrees to 10.4 degrees by 2100, throwing >>>Arctic ecosystems into turmoil and threatening coastal communities with >>>rising sea levels as glaciers melt and warming oceans expand. >>>While there is broad consensus among scientists that global temperatures are >>>rising because of fossil-fuel use, the extent and consequences of the >>>warming remain uncertain. Such doubts now form the basis of the Bush >>>administration's climate policy, which opposes costly reductions in >>>emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. >>>For some scientists concerned about the warming, abrupt climate change has >>>become a rallying point. Not only does the theory offer worst-case >>>scenarios, it co-opts one of the arguments favored by skeptics of global >>>warming -- namely that scientists aren't certain about how the climate >>>works. >>>"What concerns me and a lot of people is that we are provoking a system >>>about which we lack a total understanding," says Wallace S. Broecker, a >>>geochemist at Columbia University who was among the first to outline the >>>abrupt-change theory, in the mid-1980s. A feisty 71-year-old with a >>>reputation for big ideas and for challenging fellow scientists, Dr. Broecker >>>has become Mr. Comer's closest adviser. >>>The evidence for sudden climate swings is beginning to find a wider >>>audience. Last January, Robert Gagosian, director of the Woods Hole >>>Oceanographic Institution, on Cape Cod, told the World Economic Forum at its >>>meeting in Davos, Switzerland, that abrupt change could have the perverse >>>effect of lowering temperatures in industrialized parts of the globe. A >>>Senate bill would allocate $60 million to research on ancient ice and mud, >>>and the Bush administration plans to highlight abrupt change in a major new >>>strategic plan for climate-change research, due out this month. >>>Archaeologists have linked the collapse of several civilizations to large >>>climate changes. A long dry spell may have caused the decline of the >>>Akkadian empire in Mesopotamia around 4,200 years ago. Researchers have >>>unearthed a 180-kilometer-long wall built by a later kingdom to keep out >>>refugees from newly arid regions. >>>Hollywood is also taking note. News Corp.'s 20th Century Fox is in >>>post-production for "The Day After Tomorrow," a big-budget movie in which >>>global warming sets off a new ice age and Dennis Quaid plays a >>>paleoclimatologist who battles encroaching glaciers. A studio description >>>says the film "revolves around an abrupt climate change that has cataclysmic >>>consequences for the planet." >>>Critics of such notions -- and there are plenty -- say the yo-yoing of the >>>climate over the millennia simply shows that man's influence may be grossly >>>overestimated. They add that Mr. Comer isn't the first big donor to hand >>>over money to scientists peddling an alarmist message. >>>"Anyone who studies weather knows that it is variable, but suddenly it is >>>being treated as a boogeyman," says Richard Lindzen, an atmosphere expert at >>>the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He notes that the biggest shifts, >>>such as the one that occurred 12,700 years ago, happened under ice-age >>>conditions, when mile-thick ice sheets dominated climate processes. >>>Mr. Comer grew up on the South Side of Chicago, where his father was a >>>railroad conductor, and worked for a time as a copy writer at Young & >>>Rubicam. After quitting to travel to Europe, he decided to turn his hobby of >>>competitive sailing into a business and founded Lands' End. The small >>>mail-order operation grew to employ more than 6,000 people, but battles with >>>his board made the job increasingly unpleasant, Mr. Comer says. A >>>down-to-earth man who drives a six-year-old Lincoln Towncar and plays down >>>his wealth, Mr. Comer concedes that with the gas-guzzling auto, in addition >>>to his fleet of airplanes and boats, his lifestyle is responsible for >>>prodigious amounts of carbon-dioxide emissions. But he doesn't see personal >>>change as the solution. >>>The former executive brings a degree of political independence to the >>>climate debate. He says he made campaign donations to Bill Bradley and John >>>McCain in the 2000 election, but couldn't bring himself to vote for either >>>of the big-party candidates. He says that prior to his Arctic cruise, he had >>>never given much thought to global warming. >>>When Mr. Comer steered his 150-foot yacht Turmoil toward the Northwest >>>Passage two summers ago, the crew expected to be blocked by sea ice. >>>Instead, the ship slipped easily through open waters. An experienced Arctic >>>traveler on board said the ice conditions were the mildest he had ever seen. >>>The Turmoil was just the 94th ship to make the transit from the Atlantic to >>>the Pacific through the Arctic islands of Canada since Roald Amundsen first >>>did so in 1905. >>>"It's obvious something is happening. But no one is really interested in >>>doing anything about it," Mr. Comer said recently over a diner breakfast of >>>bacon and eggs. >>>After he returned from the Northwest Passage to his home outside Chicago, he >>>typed "global warming" into the Google search engine. A fan of Tom Clancy >>>and Joseph Conrad novels, he had read of 19th-century explorers who died in >>>the passage, and he thought his own trip had been too easy. On the Internet, >>>he found a debate between environmentalists and energy interests -- "one >>>predicting the end of the world and the other saying nothing is happening," >>>he says. >>>Mr. Comer initially considered launching a Web site of his own to counter >>>the energy industry's arguments, but he decided it would get lost in the >>>noise. Instead, he called the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. >>>"I don't want to go out and tilt at windmills and waste my time, so I have >>>focused on the scientists to help them do their job," he says. >>>Mr. Comer wanted a splashy news conference, but Woods Hole, the world's >>>largest independent ocean-research center, was more interested in collecting >>>data than in setting off political fireworks. A Woods Hole oceanographer >>>named William Curry came to Chicago and explained to Mr. Comer that >>>researchers weren't sure whether there was actually less ice or if it was >>>being moved elsewhere by wind. Soon the conversation turned to speculation. >>>If the polar ice melted, Dr. Curry said, it could cause abrupt climate >>>change. >>>The scenario he laid out goes like this: Increasing rainfall and melting ice >>>caused by global warming could lead to a buildup of fresh water in the North >>>Atlantic. That influx could shut down circulating ocean currents that >>>normally draw warm salty water from the tropics along with vast amounts of >>>heat. >>>Stopping those currents might disrupt the redistribution of heat around the >>>globe. In fact, there is evidence that Atlantic currents may already be >>>under pressure. A few months after the Chicago meeting, British scientists >>>writing in the journal Nature showed that salinity has dropped measurably in >>>the North Atlantic during the past 40 years. The Woods Hole graphics >>>department turned the data into an interactive program that Dr. Curry >>>e-mailed to Mr. Comer. >>>Shortly afterward, Mr. Comer agreed to give Woods Hole $1 million to seed a >>>program that would place buoys in the Atlantic to monitor changes in >>>salinity, temperatures and ocean currents. According to an internal Woods >>>Hole funding document, Mr. Comer's money came with the proviso that he >>>wanted the research "kicked into high gear." >>>Paleoclimatic research has exploded in the past several years, thanks to >>>data found in ice cores, tree rings, coral and ocean sediment. The abrupt >>>changes are the most striking feature of that data, but the ocean-currents >>>theory is just one explanation. The atmosphere plays a much bigger role in >>>climate, and many scientists expect tropical air to contain the mechanisms >>>of abrupt change. >>>Mr. Comer had been reaching out to other top scientists. He had written to >>>Dr. Broecker at Columbia University, saying he was looking for ways to "make >>>a difference" where he felt the government wasn't. A friend also put Mr. >>>Comer in touch with F. Sherwood Rowland, a professor at the University of >>>California at Irvine, who had shared a Nobel Prize for showing that >>>chlorofluorocarbon gases used in spray bottles and refrigerators could >>>deplete the ozone layer, an important shield against solar radiation. The >>>chemicals were later banned when a huge hole in the ozone layer was detected >>>over the Antarctic. >>>In May 2002, Dr. Rowland and his wife, Joan, flew to Victoria, British >>>Columbia, for a cruise on the Turmoil. Mr. Comer joined them after closing >>>the sale of his company to Sears. Privately, scientists hope he will provide >>>much more funding than he has. But Mr. Comer, who has also given $40 million >>>for a new children's hospital in Chicago that will bear his name, sees his >>>role as seeding research, not carrying it across the finish line. "The >>>government has really got to step in," he says. >>>Dr. Rowland and Mr. Comer were chatting on the bridge when the billionaire >>>asked, "If I wanted to put $1 million into climate-change research, what >>>should I do?" Dr. Rowland says he had a quick answer: provide 10 two-year >>>fellowships to newly minted Ph.D.s recruited into climate-change science. >>>"One to work with me, and another nine to other scientists I could pick >>>out." >>>The program soon rose to $6.9 million for 23 research groups, as Mr. Comer >>>huddled several weeks later with Drs. Rowland and Broecker in New York. They >>>gave $300,000 to an expert developing new ice-dating techniques, and an >>>equal sum to Lonnie Thompson, an Ohio State University researcher known as >>>the "Indiana Jones of paleoclimatology," who scales mountains in Latin >>>America in search of rare tropical glaciers. >>>Last month, Maine Sen. Susan Collins introduced the Abrupt Climate Change >>>Research Act of 2003, a bill that would give the National Oceanic and >>>Atmospheric Administration $60 million in additional funds to implement a >>>major study of ancient climate records. Sen. Collins, a Republican, has >>>parted ways with the Bush administration by calling for a reduction in >>>greenhouse-gas emissions from power plants to 1990 levels. >>>The administration has opposed mandating limits, arguing that the economic >>>costs aren't justified by available science. The wait-and-see policy assumes >>>that if warming occurs, it will do so gradually over the next century, >>>leaving time to invent new energy sources or to simply adapt. >>>That assumption could be wrong. In a 2002 report titled "Abrupt Climate >>>Change: Inevitable Surprises," the National Academy of Sciences in >>>Washington concluded that sudden regional climate shifts could be triggered >>>by human activities. >>>That possibility is starting to influence policy discussions, which have >>>until now focused largely on the threat of steady warming. This month, the >>>Bush administration is expected to release a major report outlining a new >>>national research strategy for climate change. According to Mr. Bush's >>>science adviser, John Marburger, abrupt climate change is identified as a >>>"priority area" in the report, which he has seen. "It is clearly one of the >>>things that needs to be looked at in the short term," says Dr. Marburger. >>>Before Mr. Comer set out on the expedition to Ontario in May, he had his >>>Dassault Falcon jet collect Dr. Broecker and other members of the team at >>>Chicago's Midway Airport. They gathered for a day of meetings at his >>>Wisconsin home, and later watched the sunset from a five-story, >>>glass-enclosed tower that soars above the estate. >>>During the three-day field trip, the group couldn't locate the path of the >>>ancient flood. A chagrined University of Manitoba geologist named James >>>Teller explained that he had predicted the flow using topographical maps, as >>>he had never had enough funds or reason to rent a plane. Now Mr. Comer has >>>sent out invitations for a new expedition in September. He thinks the water >>>went north, into Hudson Bay. >>>Document j000000020030717dz7h00030 >>>© 2003 Dow Jones Reuters Business Interactive LLC (trading as Factiva). All >>>rights reserved. >> >>Prof. Phil Jones >>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>NR4 7TJ >>UK >>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ==================================